Press Release

For immediate release:
September 10, 2012

For more information, contact Todd Rehm

First publicly released poll on Charter School Amendment shows broad support, with nearly 50% of voters in favor

Todd Rehm, an Atlanta-based pollster and political consultant released the first public voter survey on the Charter School Amendment that will appear on the General Election ballot on November 6^th, 2012.

The question, which uses the same language that will appear on the ballot, shows that 48.3% of likely General Election voters, defined as those who voted in the 2008 or 2010 General Elections, currently favor the measure.

“It’s too early to say that the Charter School Amendment is likely to pass, but it does appear to have a head-start,” said Rehm. “With eight weeks before the General Election, I’d rather be in the place of Charter School proponents than that of the opposition. For opponents of the Charter School Amendment to win, they have to either convince every undecided voters or win a substantial majority of those voters and convert some current supporters.”

While nearly a majority favor the measure, those who did not indicate they would vote for it are evenly split, with 26.2% saying they will vote against it, and 25.5% undecided.

“When you drill down into the results, two things become apparent,” said Rehm. “First is that the measure enjoys widespread support among most of the demographic categories we looked at. Second is that the only group among whom the measure doesn’t receive more support than opposition is voters who don’t identify with a political party, who are primarily undecided on the Charter School Amendment. But with Georgia’s electorate being highly partisan, there aren’t enough of these voters to make the difference on their own.”

Rehm noted that the ballot question is very generic and doesn’t give voters much to go on.

“If you don’t know about the Charter School Amendment before you look at the question, it’s hard to know what it’s intended to do or what effect it will have. That may make that the preamble to the question very important for the ultimate results.”

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The survey was conducted on September 4, 2012 and includes 1331 respondents who answered all the questions. Respondents were drawn from people who voted in either the 2008 or 2010 General Election, with commercially-available phone matches appended. The margin of error is +/- 2.68 points at the 95% confidence level. The technology used was Interactive Voice Response, (IVR) which is commonly referred to as a “robopoll”.

Results of the survey may be downloaded here.

A statement of methodology is available here.

1. Shall the Constitution of Georgia be amended to allow state or local approval of public charter schools upon the request of local communities?”

Press one if you would vote for this amendment. Press two if you would vote against this amendment. Press three if you are undecided.

George is an English Bulldog, and is currently available for adoption at the Cherokee County Humane Society after first doing a stint behind bars at the Cobb County Animal Shelter. He came in as a stray and has neither been claimed nor adopted.

George has had some medical issues, but with good veterinary care, it appears he’s getting over his problems. He is six years old, weighs sixty-six pounds, and would like nothing better than to watch football games on television from a comfy dog bed (or sofa) in his new home.

According to his guardians, George is a typical laid back lazy boy. He loves getting his belly rubbed!  He loves loves loves his squeaky toys!  He is crate and housetrained. He seems fine with other dogs and oblivious to the  cats but suspect George would be quite happy as an only child and the center of attention.  He may get a tad fussy about having his face messed with but we suspect that has more to do with discomfort of his eyes.  Since we do not know his history, a home without small children is what he seeks!!  George is neutered, heartworm tested negative ( yay) and microchipped!

George has also racked up about $700 in vet bills, which the Humane Society is asking for help in paying. If you’re unable to adopt George, you might wish to donate online in honor of your favorite football team, or your favorite team’s nemesis.

All the dogs on this page are listed as “Urgent” at their shelters, which generally means impending euthanasia.
Just look at this cow-looking dog named Boomer.He’s a young, random-breddog who is 6-8 months old and weighs 36 pounds. Boomer is on the shy, submissive side, so he should fit in well in a home with other established dogs. He’s still a young guy but catching on to the leash thing! Boomer is available for adoption today from Walton County Animal Shelter for the low, low price of $40.

Next up is Bermuda, also at Walton County.

Bermuda is described as a Pit Bull, but in the animal shelter context, that often means nothing more than “he/she has a wide head and we don’t know anything else about it’s ancestry.” She is 7 months, 36 pounds and available Monday.

Pits are highly controversial, but many people believe they’re the best dogs, loyal and smart with fantastic temperments. If you’re interested in adopting a dog described as a Pit, my advice would be to judge the dog as an individual and speak to people who deal extensively with Pit-types. Get good advice, and train your dog well. As always, it is the dog owner’s responsibility to ensure that their best friend is not a menace to society.

But just look at Bermuda’s face.

Next up are three puppies, Nat, Geo, and Fluffernutter.

Nat and Geo are male Shepherd-mix puppies who are about three months old and weigh fifteen pounds each. They were found stray and will be available for adoption on Monday. Fluffernutter is a six-month old puppy who weighs about twenty pounds. She’s described as a “Retriever mix” and I’m thinking she looks like a Nova Scotia Duck Tolling Retriever. Tollers are an uncommon breed and I’d be surprised if a purebred puppy ended up in a shelter. But if Fluffernutter were my dog, I’d probably be able to get away with calling her one. She is also available for adoption beginning Monday.

Finally, we have Rusty, a male Retriever mix guesstimated to be about a year old, and weighing in at 62 pounds. He is said to be very friendly.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns & Elections

The Charter School Amendment may have to provide much of the campaign excitement this year, as most state offices are not up for reelection.

While both commission incumbents, Republicans Stan Wise and Chuck Eaton, face challengers, the absence of TV advertising tends to leave political editors, reader commenters and the average gadfly uninterested. Besides, the fact that incumbents historically win re-election more than 95 percent of the time suggests that Wise and Eaton are unlikely to be deposed.

So, a lowly ballot question is providing most of the fun for the next two months.

Thank the Georgia Supreme Court and Gov. Nathan Deal. That’s because the court struck down as unconstitutional a law that created an appointed commission to grant operating charters to schools started by parents — sometimes acting on behalf of management companies — over the objections of the local board of education. To remedy it, Deal called for putting on the general-election ballot an amendment to make it constitutional.

“Georgia’s parents want more options, and it is my duty as governor to see that they have them,” he said in May when he signed the legislation. “These schools help students trapped in underperforming schools and aid communities that want to invest in new and imaginative ways of learning for their children.”

[T]he committee organized to campaign for the amendment, Families for Better Public Schools, reported to the state ethics commission that it had raised $487,000. More than 95 percent of that money came from out of state, including from companies that have their own financial interests because they operate charter schools here.

We will be releasing poll results on the Charter School Amendment on our website this afternoon, and providing some analysis tomorrow morning.

Former New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman and Democratic State Rep. Calvin Smyre co-authored an op-ed in the Augusta Chronicle about Plant Vogtle’s two new nuclear reactors.

Any financial adviser will tell you that the best way to ensure solid long-term returns on your investments is to diversify your investment portfolio. Putting your financial eggs in multiple baskets allows you to capitalize on the higher-yield potential of short-term opportunities, while also taking advantage of the sure growth of longer-term, predictable-yield investments.

Americans would do well to apply this counsel to our energy investments. That’s why we’re so pleased to see Georgia taking important steps toward helping the U.S. diversify its energy portfolio.

The NRC’s decision to grant construction and operating licenses for the new reactors at Plant Vogtle also marks a moment of tremendous opportunity that offers Georgians access to clean, affordable energy; more well-paying jobs; a much-needed economic boost; and a reliable source of energy long into the future.

[N]uclear power is a clean, affordable form of energy. Nuclear power plants operate without producing harmful emissions, making nuclear one of the most prolific sources of clean energy. In fact, nuclear power accounts for 63 percent of the carbon-free energy produced annually in the United States. We believe that the nuclear energy’s expansion is critical to our nation’s ability to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years.

[B]uilding and operating the two plants will provide a strong source of jobs for Georgians now and in the future.

The new reactors also will provide a powerful boost to the state’s economy.

Congressman Tom Graves (R-Ranger) will have to do more with less as his office budget is being cut 6 percent this year.

[Graves] has $1,325,000 to work with this year. According to spokeswoman Jennifer Hazelton, that’s 6.4 percent lower than the $1.4 million office budget last year, and the 2011 Members’ Representational Allowance is 5 percent down from 2010.

“Tom has been one of the ones leading the charge on that,” Hazelton said. “Since he’s been on the Appropriations Committee, they’ve cut the available money by 11.4 percent.”

“It’s a hard-and-fast allowance, but every district is different,” Hazelton said. “Who’s in it, the terrain, the distance from Washington D.C. … It all has to be taken into account when you’re determining the best way to serve your constituents.”

The campaign for the Twelfth Congressional District between Democrat incumbent John Barrow and Republican challenger Lee Anderson may ultimately hinge on whether Barrow successfully distances himself from President Obama, or Anderson’s attempt to tie him to the top of his ticket succeeds.

Even before a challenger was named, national GOP groups were focused on painting Barrow and Obama as political soul mates in a race being closely watched as a chance for Republicans to knock off a Democratic congressman.

Continue Reading..

27005 is your typical suburban yellow labrador retriever, and she is available for adoption from the Gwinnett County Animal Shelter. She was given up by her family, which generally means a dog will be one of the first to be euthanized, as there is no waiting period as there is with a stray brought in.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns & Elections

Georgia Attorney General Sam Olens made his debut on the national political scene last night, sharing a stage with Florida AG Pam Bondi at the Republican National Convention.

Arguably, wearing a pink tie on your national television debut is as courageous as doing it next to a six-foot blonde without the benefit of a step behind the podium. The text of their tag team speech is available here.

Getting fitted for a green jacket is sufficient to give former Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice a connection to Georgia politics, and she also gave a major speech last night at the RNC.

Catherine McDonald a leader with Atlanta 912 wrote the excellent notes from the address of Frank Luntz to the Georgia delegation that we excerpted yesterday. Here’s the rest of her write-up, with her permission:

The 5 most powerful sentences you can use to describe what Conservatives/the Republican Party Stand for:

1. We are: Fighting for hardworking taxpayers. (NOT the ‘middle class’, or any class designation)
2. We are Fighting for Economic Freedom. (Main Street!) (NOT ‘defending capitalism’-as most folks connect capitalism with Wall Street)
3. We bring leaders (Romney/Ryan) who will give it you you straight – NO MORE budget tricks, empty promises, or gimmicks.
4. It’s all about being REAL, GENUINE, AND AUTHENTIC. Real jobs, genuine committment to the American idea, with an authentic plan for the budget.
5. Our Leaders are getting OFF the Stage-and into the audience, among the citizens. (think Paul Ryan) (R’s tend to look too much like lawyers, behind the podium, in suits. We must relate better to the common man, still be ‘official’ when required-but respectful of all.

The Differences between how the average voter perceives Obama & Romney right now:
Romney: See him as a great “Fixer” who doesn’t understand peoples’ problems
Obama: See him as understanding peoples’ problems, but having NO idea of how to fix anything.

-Mitt Romney is a man of great Substance, not Style-Obama is a man of ‘style’, with NO substance.

Our challenge & job is to help people understand WHO Mitt Romney is; (below are my personal descriptors:)
-a decent, honest family man,
-a committed problem solver, who cares about YOU,
-a smart, successful business man who knows how to create jobs and wants every American to succeed,
-a man of great faith who loves his country and it’s Founding principles.

Finally-We must me HAPPY WARRIORS- don’t be angry or get angry when you engage!! Think Ronald Reagan!

Speaking of Sam Olens, he received a letter this week from Senator Josh McKoon (R-Columbus), the only member of the Senate Ethics Committee to dissent from the settlement of ethics charges against Senator Don Balfour (R-Snellville or Atlanta). In his letter, McKoon writes, “I am requesting that your office investigate the allegations made in the Amended Complaint of Deborah Dooley regarding violation of certain criminal statutes by Senator Balfour so that this matter may be concluded.”

Out of curiosity, I ran a poll last night in Senate District 30, the district in which State Rep. Bill Hembree is likely to meet former Speaker of the Georgia House Glenn Richardson. The ballot test question included only Hembree, Richardson, and James Camp, omitting candidates who said they are “considering” the race.

Bill Hembree  36.6%
Glenn Richardson  13.1%
James Camp 12.1%

Those results represent several things, in my not-so-humble opinion. First, Hembree has high name recognition, and Richardson probably has high name ID but also high negatives. I didn’t test favorable/unfavorable on the candidates, so that’s just my opinion. The likely-high negatives make it difficult for Richardson to attack Hembree.

Second, I predict that Bill Hembree will win this election without a runoff unless another top-caliber candidate enters the race. There may yet be a second act in Glenn Richardson’s political career, but it is highly unlikely to involve representing the new 30th District in the State Senate next year.

The sample size was 505 respondents for the ballot test, which gives a margin of sampling error of +/- 4.34 points at the 95% confidence level. I’ll be releasing more information through the website and tomorrow’s email.

Ellijay’s Colonel Oscar Poole continued his moment in the national press with a photo in USA Today. According to the accompanying article:

Oscar Poole — the Georgian in the yellow suit (with red epaulets) — was dressed to promote his business, Colonel Poole’s Bar-B-Q. Similarly, Dan Daub, mayor of Tower City, Pa., wore a cowboy hat crafted from a box of his hometown beer, Yuengling.

The Albany Herald spoke with State Rep. Ed Rynders, who is attending the National Convention.

The Georgia delegation was fired up Monday from a surprise visit from Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus on Sunday, one that Rynders said was energizing. “He gave a great speech that got the Georgia delegation going on Sunday,” Rynders said, noting that Priebus referred to encouraging children and grandchildren to work to be successful.

“Sometimes we lose sight of earning success,” he said. “I think that really struck a chord with folks.”

David Oedel, a professor at Mercer Law School, writes his analysis of Miriam Paris’s loss of her Senate seat to fellow Democrat David Lucas.

While Paris put up a nice website for her constituents to visit, Lucas was out talking to the district’s voters face to face. Lucas also charged Paris with being a Republican pawn. That’s an overstatement, but there was enough truth in the charge to stick. Paris’s ears seemed tuned to people such as state Sen. Cecil Staton, Rep. Allen Peake and Erick Erickson in north Macon, Lynn Westmoreland in west Georgia, and plenty of Atlanta gold-domers — all outside the 26th District.

Outsiders fronted by a Republican Atlanta lawyer who formerly worked for Westmoreland issued fancy and “funny” fliers trying to paint Lucas as a lazy Negro, asleep at the political switch. That’s an odd way to spend PAC money in the 26th District, where people understandably resent racial taunting.

Another interesting angle was that Paris supported Macon-Bibb consolidation, which did prevail in July, while Lucas expressed skepticism about some aspects of the particular consolidation plan. It therefore appears probable that a critical number of Bibb voters who approved consolidation also voted for Lucas. If so, that would mean Bibb’s black Democratic voters are more nuanced than some people give them credit for.

The Center for Immigration Studies estimates that Latino voters will comprise 9.8 percent of the November electorate in the states that solidly favor one Presidential candidate, which is the category in which they place Georgia.