Category: Georgia Polling Report

12
Jan

Georgia voters positive about the state, but not guns | www.ajc.com

Georgians are generally bullish about the direction of their state but want lawmakers to remain focused on boosting an economy and job market that voters say remains weak, according to a new poll conducted for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

A majority of registered voters say the state is headed in the right direction, with 51 percent saying they are satisfied with Georgia’s course and 7 percent who say they are very satisfied. But, asked whether their personal financial situation is better or worse than five years ago, or if jobs are readily available in their communities, voters are much less optimistic.

Voters indicated that they generally support the job state lawmakers are doing. The poll showed 45 percent of respondents approve of the General Assembly’s job performance, compared with 39 percent who disapprove.

But when it comes to one of the top priorities for 2014 for the Republican majorities in the House and Senate, voters gave a resounding thumbs down. The GOP leadership in both chambers wants to greatly expand where gun owners can carry firearms. But voters in the poll by majorities exceeding 70 percent said it was a bad idea to allow owners to carry guns on college campuses, into churches and other locations.

The poll, conducted by Abt SRBI of New York, surveyed 802 adults statewide between Jan. 6 and Jan. 9 on what issues Georgians want their Legislature to tackle in 2014. The margin of error for each response is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll was conducted by live operators and included respondents via cellphone and landline.

via Georgia voters positive about the state, but not guns | www.ajc.com.

11
Jan

Polling favors Deal at this stage | www.myajc.com

Gov. Nathan Deal has a healthy advantage as he prepares to ask voters for a second term, but uneasiness over the economy could leave an opening for his Democratic rival. And the wild race for a U.S. Senate seat remains just as wide open as expected.

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of 802 registered voters showed Deal with 47 percent support in a head-to-head matchup against 38 percent for state Sen. Jason Carter, his likely Democratic opponent.Continue Reading..

11
Jan

AJC survey: Nathan Deal has lead; no front-runner in Senate race | Political Insider blog

I have an issue with this poll: the partisan self-identification of the sample appears to be skewed Democratic. We’ll talk more about what this means on Monday morning in the GaPundit.com email newsletter.

Deal has 47 percent support in a head-to-head matchup against 38 percent for Carter, his likely Democratic opponent. Deal’s support hit 50 percent when voters were asked whether they leaned toward either candidate.

The survey, conducted by SRBI Inc., polled 802 registered voters between Jan. 6 and Jan. 9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Some 44 percent of the respondents identified themselves as a Democrat or Democrat-leaning, while 43 percent identified as Republican or Republican-leaning.

via AJC survey: Nathan Deal has lead; no front-runner in Senate race | Political Insider blog.

28
Jan

GaPundit.com Poll: GA GOP voters approve of Deal’s performance by 3:1 margin

A poll conducted this weekend by GaPundit.com shows that voters approve of Governor Deal’s handling of job growth by a better than 3-1 margin.

Asked “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Governor Nathan Deal is doing in bringing new jobs to Georgia?” 60.1 percent of past Republican Primary voters answered affirmatively, while 18.6 do not approve of Deal’s performance and 21.3 percent are undecided.

DealApproval

A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling in December and November of 2012 showed self-identified Republicans giving Deal a job performance approval/disapproval rating of 58/20, with 23% not sure.

Last week, Fox5Atlanta noted a poll showing Governor Deal with a 55-29 approval/disapproval rating in another poll.

InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 political analyst Matt Towery said the poll results weren’t surprising.

Towery said that the results suggest that Deal would be a strong candidate if he chooses to run for a second term next year.

“At this point I would say that Gov. Deal is about as popular as a governor in this region of the nation can get. We used to require approval of 50 percent to say a governor was in good shape for reelection, but that bar moved several years ago to around 45 percent, so Gov. Deal is sitting pretty as of now,” Towery said.

A poll commissioned by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and released two weeks ago showed Deal with a 51% “favorable approval rating” among all voters, but did not meet the minimal requirements for disclosure of a poll under industry and academic standards.

Click here for a copy of the script and research methodology.

28
Jan

GaPundit.com Poll: Sonny Perdue leads the field for 2014 U.S. Senate race

With support from 24 percent of past Republican Primary voters, former two-term Governor Sonny Perdue leads among the serious potential candidates who have not foreclosed the possibility of running for the Republican nomination for United State Senate in 2014 following the announcement by Senator Saxby Chambliss that he will not seek reelection.

SenateBallot

Former Fulton County Commission Chair and Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel comes in second with 15 percent, reflecting a strong 2012 Gubernatorial campaign in which she came in first in the Republican Primary before losing the runoff to then-Congressman Nathan Deal.

Four Republican Congressmen, Paul Broun, Tom Graves, Tom Price, and Lynn Westmoreland hover in the range from six to ten percent; I’d guess any other incumbent GOP Congressman would score similarly.

The Gender Factor

The following table shows that sixty percent of Handel’s support comes from women, significantly higher than any other potential candidate, and nearly 64% of undecided respondents are women, showing some upside for Handel in a demographic that has been a weakness for the GOP lately. With an identical number of male respondents choosing Handel and Congressman Tom Price, whose geographic bases overlap, Handel’s lead over Price comes entirely from additional female votes.SenateCrosstabGenderRows

At the same time, Governor Perdue’s strong lead overall means that he still attracts more votes from women overall.

SenateCrosstabGenderColumns

Click here for a copy of the script and research methodology.

29
Oct

Georgia Politics, Campaigns & Elections for October 29, 2012

This young lab mix puppy is about 12 weeks old and the volunteers at Murray County Animal Shelter says he’s sweet, friendly, gets along with other dogs and loves people. He needs to be rescued ASAP or he will be euthanized on Friday morning. Transportation to Atlanta is available.

Angels Among Us Rescue has foster care lined up for these Golden mix puppies, and is trying to raise $1000 for their vetting to ensure they can save them. Please consider making a donation to Angels Among Us Rescue today and put “GaPundit – Golden Puppies” in the online donation form.

Flash here (28341) is a young, friendly male Basset Hound who is available for adoption today from Gwinnett County Animal Shelter.

28301 is an adult male lemon Beagle mix who is available for adoption today from Gwinnett County Animal Shelter.

Villa Rica veterinarian Stuart “Doc Win” Burnett  is doing his part to reduce euthanasia of dogs and cats.

His passion for animals and his willingness to serve the community has led to the formation of two new endeavors meant to keep dogs and cats from being put to sleep and providing affordable veterinarian services for those who can’t afford it.

The American Veterinary Animal Welfare Foundation was launched last year as a way to rescue animals in local shelters that would otherwise be euthanized, and to help offset some of the free veterinary care he and his staff often provide.

“We are rescuing dogs off death row at the shelters,” said Deborah York, president of the Animal Welfare Foundation. “We’re bringing them in, vetting them and finding them homes.”

The non-profit foundation relies entirely on donations. Since receiving its rescue license in May, nearly 100 pets have been rescued by the foundation. Though the foundation rescues animals it is not a drop-off location for people who simply don’t want their animals.

Once a month, the foundation has a booth at PetSmart in Douglasville where it offers animals for adoption, and all the animals are on display at Petfinder.com. The cost of adoption is $150 for males and $200 for females, which covers an animal being fully vetted, microchipped and spayed/neutered.

Besides donated funds, the foundation has set up a thrift store at its previous clinic building across from its current location on Thomas Dorsey Drive — once a month items are sold and the money goes to pet rescue. Items to be sold can be donated by contacting Atlanta West Veterinary Hospital.

Burnett and his staff provide about 15 to 20 hours a week of what they refer to as “community service,” which is veterinary care for those who can’t afford to pay. Donations to the foundation also will go toward helping fund some of these pro bono services.

“We’re trying to serve the community and make a living too,” Burnett said.

Burnett and fellow veterinarian Steve Hathcock will launch the Bay Springs Clinic on Nov. 13, which will provide affordable spay/neuter procedures and other smaller veterinary services. The clinic will be located behind Vaughn Tile on Highway 61 North.

Anyone seeking more information about the clinic or wanting to donate to the foundation can contact Atlanta West at 770-459-2253, email debsavesdogs@yahoo.com or visit the website at www.americanveterinarywelfarefoundation.com.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns & Elections

Over the weekend, Early and Advance voting surpassed the one million mark, with 99,979 votes being cast according to the latest absentee voter file from the Secretary of State’s office. Of the early/advance voters on Saturday for whom the SOS reported a “Last Party Primary,” 54% had last voted in a Republican Primary and 46% in a Democratic Primary.

WSB reported Friday that Gwinnett County had its longest waits of the election.

Lines were up to two-and-a-half hours long between 8:30am and noon at the main elections office in Lawrenceville.Continue Reading..

13
Oct

The Daily Show on Polls and Pundits

9
Oct

Georgia Polling Report: Are robopolls reliable?

Last month, we ran a robopoll asking about the upcoming Charter School Amendment and it was picked up in a story by Walter C. Jones of Morris News Service.

When it ran in the Athens Banner-Herald, there was an interesting comment that I didn’t notice until yesterday. Someone purporting to be Barry Hollander wrote:

this appears to have been a robo-poll. Most professionals do not put a lot of stock in these. Still, the results sound reasonable for Georgia on this question.

He made another point about being skeptical of partisan pollsters, but I’ll address that question in another post.

Here, I want to address Professor Hollander’s assertion that most professionals discout robo-polls. It’s simply not true.

Continue Reading..

6
Oct

First post-debate Poll of Georgia shows Romney with substantial lead among Georgia Voters

Press Release

For Immediate Release: October 6, 2012

For more information, call Todd Rehm at [redacted] or email todd@toddrehm.com

Atlanta-based political consultant and pollster Todd Rehm of Sand Mountain Communications, LLC released the first poll of the Presidential Election conducted after the Presidential debate, which most observers said was won by Governor Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee.

The poll was released on the GaPundit.com website, which covers Georgia politics, campaigns and elections.

The first post-Presidential debate survey of Georgia voters, conducted on October 4th, 2012, shows that Romney remains the front-runner in Georgia, opening his lead over President Obama by between 5.8 and 7.6 percentage points.

Analysis of the results where we weighted the Age and Gender of voters to reflect an electorate like 2008 showed Romney leading with 56.0% to President Obama with 37.8%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson takes 3.3% in this scenario.

If the electorate more closely resembles that of 2010, Romney leads with 57.8% to President Obama with 36.4% and Governor Gary Johnson with 2.9%.

“Mitt Romney has been the front-runner among Georgia voters for months, but his lead has opened substantially in the last month, and after the first Presidential debate,” said Todd Rehm.

The pollster released two sets of numbers; one that reflects the composition of the electorate in 2008 and the other reflecting the demographics of voters in 2010.

“With all the interest in weighting polls among online pundits, I thought I’d save them the trouble of ‘unskewing’ the poll by presenting the information both ways. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter whether Mitt Romney is leading by 56 percent to 37.8 percent as the 2008-based numbers suggest or by a wider margin of 57.8 to 36.4 if the voter base looks more like 2010,” said Rehm.

“More important than the numbers on their own is the trajectory, which shows Mitt Romney well over 50% and climbing, while President Obama slips. This will affect not just the Presidential election, but the fortunes of Republican and Democratic candidates across Georgia,” said Rehm.

On September 4, 2012, Sand Mountain Communications polled Georgia voters and found that Romney led President Obama by a margin of 50.7% for Romney to 42.4% for President Obama.

The sample size for this survey was 1323 respondents and the margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval. The poll results, along with the statement of methodology can be found at GaPundit.com.

The sample size for this survey was 1323 respondents and the margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval. The script and methodology are reported below in the linked .pdf file.

Data and Methodology for Poll conducted October 4, 2012

Presidential Election Poll Results weighted for 2010 Age Range and Gender.

Presidential Election Poll Results weighted for 2008 Age Range and Gender.

4
Oct

AP, TV networks: no exit polling for Georgia General Election

The National Election Pool, which does exit polling for the AP and major television networks will not survey Georgia voters on November 6th. Georgia is one of 19 states that are excluded.

Voters in the excluded states will still be interviewed as part of a national exit poll, but state-level estimates of the partisan, age or racial makeups of electorates won’t be available as they have been since 1992. The lack of data may hamper election night analyses in some states, and it will almost certainly limit post-election research for years to come.

A growing number of voters casting early ballots has added to the complexity of carrying out surveys in 50 states, the District of Columbia and nationally. In more and more states it has become crucial to supplement in-person precinct polling with relatively costly telephone interviews in order to achieve representative samples.

This year, exit pollsters are set to carry out phone polls in 15 states, about half of all states covered, and increase the sample sizes of those polls by 32 percent, according to Merkle. Moreover, the continued rise in the number of voters using cellphones also bumps up the price of phone surveys, another challenge motivating the changes for 2012.

Here is a list of the states that will be excluded from coverage: Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Comparing this list with the election map, reveals how carefully the exit poll planners allocated resources. All 19 of the states with no exit polls are classified as either “solid Obama” or “solid Romney,” and there is only one “toss-up” gubernatorial or U.S. Senate race not on the list: the competitive North Dakota match-up of Heidi Heitkamp and Rick Berg.