First post-debate Poll of Georgia shows Romney with substantial lead among Georgia Voters

6
Oct

First post-debate Poll of Georgia shows Romney with substantial lead among Georgia Voters

Press Release

For Immediate Release: October 6, 2012

For more information, call Todd Rehm at [redacted] or email todd@toddrehm.com

Atlanta-based political consultant and pollster Todd Rehm of Sand Mountain Communications, LLC released the first poll of the Presidential Election conducted after the Presidential debate, which most observers said was won by Governor Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee.

The poll was released on the GaPundit.com website, which covers Georgia politics, campaigns and elections.

The first post-Presidential debate survey of Georgia voters, conducted on October 4th, 2012, shows that Romney remains the front-runner in Georgia, opening his lead over President Obama by between 5.8 and 7.6 percentage points.

Analysis of the results where we weighted the Age and Gender of voters to reflect an electorate like 2008 showed Romney leading with 56.0% to President Obama with 37.8%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson takes 3.3% in this scenario.

If the electorate more closely resembles that of 2010, Romney leads with 57.8% to President Obama with 36.4% and Governor Gary Johnson with 2.9%.

“Mitt Romney has been the front-runner among Georgia voters for months, but his lead has opened substantially in the last month, and after the first Presidential debate,” said Todd Rehm.

The pollster released two sets of numbers; one that reflects the composition of the electorate in 2008 and the other reflecting the demographics of voters in 2010.

“With all the interest in weighting polls among online pundits, I thought I’d save them the trouble of ‘unskewing’ the poll by presenting the information both ways. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter whether Mitt Romney is leading by 56 percent to 37.8 percent as the 2008-based numbers suggest or by a wider margin of 57.8 to 36.4 if the voter base looks more like 2010,” said Rehm.

“More important than the numbers on their own is the trajectory, which shows Mitt Romney well over 50% and climbing, while President Obama slips. This will affect not just the Presidential election, but the fortunes of Republican and Democratic candidates across Georgia,” said Rehm.

On September 4, 2012, Sand Mountain Communications polled Georgia voters and found that Romney led President Obama by a margin of 50.7% for Romney to 42.4% for President Obama.

The sample size for this survey was 1323 respondents and the margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval. The poll results, along with the statement of methodology can be found at GaPundit.com.

The sample size for this survey was 1323 respondents and the margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval. The script and methodology are reported below in the linked .pdf file.

Data and Methodology for Poll conducted October 4, 2012

Presidential Election Poll Results weighted for 2010 Age Range and Gender.

Presidential Election Poll Results weighted for 2008 Age Range and Gender.

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