Georgia Politics, Campaigns & Elections for April 29, 2013

On Saturday I was lucky to participate as a panelist in the Georgia Republican Assembly debate for Chairman of the Georgia Republican Party, along with moderator Julianne Thompson, President of GRA, and fellow panelists Martha Zoller and Rachel Little, newly elected Chair of the Gwinnett Republican Party.

Martha writes on Zpolitics that the fireworks were absent from the debate.

Most of the questions were pretty softball and implied an alliance between Padgett, Harp and Johnson.

the exchanges were what you would expect from 4 Republicans getting together to talk about how to lead the party and what the priorities are in leading the party. Johnson and Harp did well, but the tension was between Padgett and Van Gundy. There could be an alliance forming between Johnson, Harp and Padgett.

Most people expect there to be three or 4 ballots to elect this chairman. In addition, many expect Van Gundy to finish first or second in the first ballot. If you add up all the straw polls to this date, Van Gundy and Padgett are close, Johnson is gaining and Harp is staying pretty steady.

From the “Rapid Fire Round,” where the candidates were given the opportunity to ask a question directly of another candidate.

Seth Harp: “My question is for BJ. BJ, when we were in Carrollton, one of the people in the audience asked you a question about what you did, and you talked about your businesses that you have and you also said something very interesting.

“You said you were partners with Steve Handel in some business venture. How can you be party Chairman and be fair to Phil Gingrey, Jack Kingston, Paul Broun, or any other candidate, assuming that Karen [Handel] gets in the race and you’re partners with her husband?”

BJ Van Gundy: “It’s very simple. It has nothing to do with the party at all.”

The rest of the exchange is here on the GaPundit website along with audio, which is worth a listen if you’re a delegate or alternate to the State Convention in Athens.

In the second round, BJ took the fight to John Padgett:

BJ Van Gundy: “Thank you, this is for John Padgett. I think a lot of people in this room have probably seen the video of the Clarke County Convention from last year and what happened in the ten minutes immediately as it finished.”

“My question is, John, what would you have done differently, possibly, after that convention, or would you have done anything differently.”

Click here for John Padgett’s response and the audio.

Two of the questions I asked at the debate came directly from GaPundit readers who submitted questions on the website. If you’ve got a question you’d like me to ask at one of the next two debates, you can submit it via the website.

This Thursday, May 2, 2013, I’ll be moderating the next debate between the candidates for Chairman, in a venue sponsored by the Ninth District GAGOP and Hall County and White County Republican Parties.

Click here to R.s.v.p. to the Gainesville debate on Facebook, which will also be livestreamed on the internet.

On Saturday, May 4, 2013, along with celebrating my tenth wedding anniversary, I’ll be a panelist at the Georgia Republican Assembly debate in Savannah, Ga.

Click here for more information about the Savannah debate and to R.s.v.p. on Facebook.

Tables for the debate for candidates and organizations may still be available.

Campaigns & Elections

With six candidates running for Mayor of the Macon-Bibb consolidated government qualified for the July 16th election, it is very likely to require a runoff on August. 13th.

There are no unfamiliar faces in the half-dozen mayoral contenders: Mayor Robert Reichert, former Mayor C. Jack Ellis, County Commission Chairman Sam Hart, former Commission Chairman Charlie Bishop, Commissioner Joe Allen, and David Cousino, who has never held office but has made runs at mayor and chairman before.

Chris Lawrence, an assistant professor of political science at Middle Georgia State College, agrees that none of the six will get a majority of the votes in July.

“A candidate is going to have to hope to make the runoff and then pick up the support of the candidates who didn’t make it,” he said.

To some extent, that was the scenario in Macon’s 2011 mayoral race when Reichert and Ellis emerged as the top two candidates in a field that included the late state Sen. Robert Brown and newcomer Paul Bronson.

In an unusual move, more voters turned out for the runoff between Reichert and Ellis than they did in the primary, and the increased turnout played a key factor in Reichert’s narrow 537-vote victory.

The Bibb County Board of Elections has sent out new voter precinct cards to all registered voters.

In 2012, African-Americans voted at a higher rate than any other minority group and surpassed white turnout by some measures.

Had people voted last November at the same rates they did in 2004, when black turnout was below its current historic levels, Republican Mitt Romney would have won narrowly, according to an analysis conducted for The Associated Press.

Census data and exit polling show that whites and blacks will remain the two largest racial groups of eligible voters for the next decade. Last year’s heavy black turnout came despite concerns about the effect of new voter-identification laws on minority voting, outweighed by the desire to re-elect the first black president.

William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, analyzed the 2012 elections for the AP using census data on eligible voters and turnout, along with November’s exit polling. He estimated total votes for Obama and Romney under a scenario where 2012 turnout rates for all racial groups matched those in 2004. Overall, 2012 voter turnout was roughly 58 percent, down from 62 percent in 2008 and 60 percent in 2004.

Walter Jones of Morris News Service writes about disagreement within the Georgia Democratic Party over their direction for 2014 and beyond.

Democratic Party Chairman Mike Berlon is betting on picking up statewide races next year, but some other prominent Democrats aren’t confident about his strategy.

“We no longer can afford to have these party primaries where we take six or seven Democrats and run them against each other and there’s nothing left but smoke and ruin in the end,” he said. “This time around, we’ve worked very hard to make sure that when the decision is made, these two candidates talk to each other and clear the field so we can move forward.”

But Steve Anthony, a political science professor at Georgia State University and a former executive director of the Democratic Party of Georgia, predicts Berlon won’t succeed.

“I’m conflicted about that approach,” he said.

Georgia Association of College Republicans State Convention

This weekend, the Georgia Association of College Republican elected new leadership at their state convention. Congratulations to the new state officers:

Chairman: Will Kremer, Georgia Gwinnett College
Vice Chair: Leanne Livingston, University of Georgia
Treasurer: Aron Cody Russell, Georgia Southern University
Secretary: Sarah Chambers, Emory University

Earlier this month, Will Kremer wrote “5 Things You Should Know About College Republicans” for GaPundit. Here’s an excerpt:

2. The State of Georgia has the largest state association of College Republicans in the nation.

The Georgia Association of College Republicans has more chapters than any other state association in the nation. Not only that, but the University of Georgia College Republicans is the largest individual chapter in the United States. We have active regional directors who work with students at schools across the state to start new chapters each semester. We understand that the more chapters and members we have at our disposal translates into more activists for the Republican Party.

If his election as Chairman means Will is now too important to write for us, we’ll ask his puppetmaster Tori Wester to contribute. Pretty sure we’ll have something from Tori on Wednesday.