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Georgia Politics, Campaigns & Elections for October 10, 2012

Squiggy (left) is a 15 pound Shih-tzu who is only available for adoption to experienced rescue organizations because he may bite.

Grace (center) is a 6-pound, five-month old female Chihuahua, who is very nice according to the volunteers and is available for adoption beginning Friday from Walton County Animal Shelter.

Artie (right) is a neutered male Pomeranian estimated at 2 years of age. He will be available for adoption beginning Saturday from Walton County Animal Shelter.

28020 is a strikingly attractive Golden Retriever mix with blue eyes and stand-uppy ears. If you adopt her, I promise you that people will stop you on the streets walking her to tell you how pretty she is. She is available for adoption beginning Saturday at the Gwinnett County Animal Shelter.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns & Elections

RealClearPolitics, which aggregates polling data in an attempt to gain greater accuracy, shows Governor Mitt Romney leading President Obama for the first time this year.

With 27 days until the election, Romney’s lead at present is fragile — but significant in that the trend is going toward him, not Obama.

RealClearPolitics rolling daily average of national polls put Romney in the lead for the first time on this week, with the spread 0.7 in Romney’s favor.

GALLUP: Gallup’s poll out Tuesday of likely voters — Gallup’s first snapshot of likely voters this election cycle — puts Romney at 49 percent to 47 percent for Obama.

Romney’s lead in the survey, taken Oct. 2-8 (the Denver debate was Oct. 3) is not statistically significant, but it does highlight the “competitive nature of the election,” according to Gallup.

Gallup at this stage is focusing more on likely voters — rather than the bigger universe of registered voters — because the point now is to focus on voters who will actually cast a ballot.

In the same poll, registered voters preferred Obama 49 percent to Romney at 46 percent.

PEW RESEARCH: The Pew Research Center likely voter survey, released Monday, put Romney at 49 percent to Obama’s 45 percent. What a reversal.

Last month, Obama was ahead at 51 percent to 45 percent for Romney. Now more voters see themselves as Republicans — a switch.

Among registered voters, Romney and Obama were tied at 46 percent each.

SWING STATES: RealClearPolitics tracking averages show Romney gaining in the crucial battleground states.

Before the debate, almost every swing state survey gave the lead to Obama.

RCP tracking of the latest polls by non-campaign sources puts Romney ahead in Florida, 0.7; North Carolina, 3; Colorado, 0.5.

Obama takes the lead in Virginia, 0.3; Ohio, 0.7; Iowa, 3.2.

Romney campaign spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom was cautiously gleeful in an MSNBC interview.

I have said previously that the numbers in any single poll are not necessarily the most important thing, but the trends seen in repeat polls are what I look for.

If you’re interested in becoming a discriminating reader of polling data, note the differences in the “likely voters” and “registered voters” numbers in both the Gallup and Pew polls, where it is enough to change the outcome of the election ballot question. We’ll be discussing this at length on the website.Continue Reading..