On August 2, 1776, Button Gwinnett, Lyman Hall, and George Walton of Georgia signed the Declaration of Independence on behalf of Georgia.

National Liberals Spout Nunn Talking Points

You’ve got to hand it to the national Democratic establishment – they and their liberal friends in the DC press corps and even here in Georgia are disciplined in their constant drumbeat that Michelle Nunn, an unproven first-timer whose supposedly-respected name last appeared on a Georgia ballot in 1990, the year I cast my first ballot in what would become a lifelong (so far) career in Georgia politics. Today’s recitation of the Democratic-Media Complex Talking Points comes from the Washington Post.

Georgia and Kentucky represent the only two realistic pickup opportunities for Democrats at this point, though both contests look like pretty tall orders for the party.

And that’s where Nunn, 46, comes in. The head of a nonprofit group that encourages volunteerism, she is the daughter of former senator Sam Nunn, a centrist Democrat who represented the Peach State in the upper chamber for nearly a quarter century. The younger Nunn is a political newcomer who faces trial by fire: Trying to win a Senate race in a state Republicans have dominated in recent years.

Democrats are already trying to stir the pot in the GOP primary, believing that if it produces a flawed nominee, Nunn will be well-positioned to pounce. In a fundraising e-mail for Nunn sent Tuesday, Sen. Kirsten Gillbrand (D-N.Y.) declared that “the alternative is disturbing.”

Demographic trends have given Democrats an extra reason to aim to be as competitive as possible in statewide elections. A surge in the minority population, which typically favors Democrats, has stoked optimism in the party about turning Georgia blue in the coming years. But with Republicans currently controlling all statewide offices, Democrats have a way to go, observers say. And 2014 may be too early to see any major shift.

Here are three reasons they’re wrong.

First, Nunn running a campaign, even if she doesn’t have to worry about the Primary because her friends are clearing the way for her, will tie herself to issues that are to the left of most Georgians. If she persists in trying to present the image of a moderate, the screams from her left will be deafening and enthusiasm among her fellow Democrats will wane.

Second, demographic changes take more than two years to manifest in the electorate, especially in non-Presidential elections. 2014 will be too early absent a mass political hari-kari by Republicans, which to be fair, can never be completely excluded.

Third, the points to make up on the scoreboard are pretty daunting. In 2010, after a bruising GOP Primary and Runoff, Gov. Deal was elected by a ten-point margin over former Governor Roy Barnes. Demographic changes plus improved Get-Out-The-Vote efforts will simply not be enough to make up that much ground against a popular incumbent who has made a full-time job out of announcing new jobs across the state.

That’s not to say that Georgia Republicans can take it easy this year and next. The real impact of Nunn’s candidacy will not be fully felt until 2016 or 2018, when Democrats have had a couple more years of favorable demographic changes. To the extent that they spend 2013 and 2014 building a stronger party organization and walk away from their defeat with better information, and a highly-tuned group of professionals, activists, and allies, they will be formidable foes.

Obamacare

Additionally, Nunn will face the problem of Obamacare. Last week, two reputable national polls pointed toward Obamacare being an albatross around the neck of so-called centrist Democrats.

A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed a 13-point deficit for those who think Obamacare is a good idea (34%) against those who think it’s a bad idea (47%). This in a poll sample that likely under-sampled Republicans. Incidentally, that poll showed a dead heat at 44/44 for Dems and Goppers in the question of which party would be preferred to lead Congress.

In the story accompanying a Washington Post poll that shows a majority of moderate and conservative Democrats disapproving of Obamacare, the editorialists wrote:

launching health insurance exchanges for those who are uninsured offers an opportunity for the Obama administration to win over detractors through action rather than political argument, which has not been very effective. It may be the last best chance for Obama to win support for a law that has been stubbornly unpopular from the start.

But unfortunately for Nunn, the implementation of Obamacare is nothing less than a disaster in Georgia.

The federal implementation of a healthcare exchange for Georgians make two things clear: first, private insurance plans under Obamacare will be dramatically more expensive, with up to 198% cost increases in some cases; second, fewer options will be available, as two of the providers lined up to serve Georgians under the healthcare exchange have already dropped out, leaving only five.

But you know who isn’t complaining about higher costs from Obamacare? Congressional staffers, who will receive more government money to offset the higher costs of paying for their employer healthcare plan.

Lawmakers and staff can breathe easy — their health care tab is not going to soar next year.

The Office of Personnel Management, under heavy pressure from Capitol Hill, will issue a ruling that says the government can continue to make a contribution to the health care premiums of members of Congress and their aides, according to several Hill sources.

So, in summary: when Georgians face skyrocketing health insurance rates caused by Obamacare, the Obama administration declines to even allow a 30-day delay to the peons. When members of Congress and their staffers face rising health insurance rates, it’s a crisis that must be addressed by Congressional leaders and the President himself.

So here’s the scorecard on Obamacare’s implementation: Georgia Insurance Commissioner Ralph Hudgens +5 for taking on the federal juggernaut.

Put this on your calendar: August 19th

That’s when DeKalb CEO Burrell Ellis will begin trial for extortion, theft, and conspiracy.

Pro-tip: House of Cards is fiction

Don’t try that stuff at home. North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory learned that just because it works on your favorite TV show, doesn’t mean it’ll work for you at home, when he tried a Francis Underwood-style gambit, sending cookies to protesters outside the Governor’s Mansion. Predicably that didn’t go over so well.

In the fifth episode, the fictional Rep. Frank Underwood, played by Kevin Spacey, is met with loud protests from education advocates outside his wife’s fundraising event. In an attempt at turning the negative media coverage around, Underwood leaves the event with leftover food and beer.

“Don’t take the food. We’ll feed you later,” says union leader Marty Spinella.

Cue Underwood’s political savvy:

“Marty, you know that old saying, ‘The most dangerous spot in the world is between a Teamster and free food,’ ” Underwood chimes back.

And who could resist free barbecue? “I’ll take it!” says one protester, and so ends the demonstration. Underwood prevails again.

McCrory did not receive this sort of reaction—actually, quite the opposite. Just another case of: No, your life in politics or Washington or wherever is not like House of Cards or The West Wing.

Georgia Conservatives in Action: Kudos to John Barge

Yesterday, GCIA wrote of their appreciation for Dr. John Barge, State School Superintendent, for declining to use the Common Core-linked Partnership for Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers (PARCC) testing for Georgia students and delaying implementation of teacher merit pay under federal guidelines.

The bigger message Georgians ought to consider in all this is how federal grants of paltry sums have a strange way of controlling this state’s educational system, despite the fact that Georgia taxpayers pay approximately $13 billion each year for K-12 education. It is insulting for state taxpayers to lose their voice in education policy because our former Executive Branch officials signed onto a federal grant.