For the sixth consecutive quarter, metro Savannah’s economy chugged sluggishly along, with strong tourism and port-related numbers — and a rebound in consumer confidence — accounting for much of the modest growth, according to Armstrong Atlantic State University economist Michael Toma.
However, in the second-quarter issue of the Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, the director of Armstrong’s Center for Regional Analysis cautions that continued growth in early 2014 is questionable, based on diminished momentum in the leading index.
The coincident index — that measures the current economic heartbeat of the region — is showing modest growth, as it has for a year and a half, Toma said. But the leading index — which provides a short-term forecast of the region’s economic activity in the next six to nine months — has flattened.
“The numbers aren’t going down,” he said. “But the leading index appears now to be nearly stalled.”
Mixed signals in the housing and labor markets contributed to the slowdown and undermine the clarity of the forecast going forward, Toma said.
“The leading index has been losing momentum for several quarters, but this is the first quarter it has actually stalled,” he said. “For example, new home starts were way up in the first quarter, then dropped 15 percent in the second.
“This could just be an anomaly. Or it could indicate weaker growth in early 2014.”
At any rate, the trend is one worth watching closely, he said.
Comments ( 0 )