Politics Counts: If Democrats Motivate Women Voters, Then What? – Washington Wire – WSJ

Women 18 to 49 years old still report that they have positive feelings for Mr. Obama by 10 percentage points – 46% positive versus 36% negative. Younger and older men and women older than 50, all report negative feelings toward the president.

And women 18-to-49 still say they would favor a Democrat-controlled congress this fall by a large margin, 52% Democrat-controlled to 36% Republican-controlled. Women older than 50 favor Democrats, but by less – 50% to 41%. Meanwhile, men over and under 50 say they would favor Republican control.

If the goal is to drive up turnout among women, particularly women younger than 50, and turn that polling advantage into a vote advantage, what’s the prognosis for the Democrats? Could women be the buffer some analysts suggest they could?

There are two states where women 18 to 49 make up more than 30% of the voting-age population: North Carolina, where the seat is currently held by Democrat Kay Hagan, and Georgia, where Republican Saxby Chambliss is retiring. Both those races are listed as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. That would seem to offer Democrats some hope in those states, all other things being equal.

Add in the fact that women tend to have better turnout numbers than men, in presidential and non-presidential elections years, and the Democrats appeals to women could pay dividends in those races if they stay close.

The real numbers are worth noting as well if the races end up being very close. There are about 30,000 more women than men in the 18- to 49-year-old age range in Georgia. In North Carolina, the advantage is larger: There are about 140,000 more women in that age group than men.

And in both Georgia and North Carolina the Democratic Senate candidates are women – though the jury is still largely out on whether that helps or hurts with women voters.