Between the “sorting out” that took place in the past four elections and a redistricting process that maximized the number of safe seats for both parties—but especially for Republicans—the bulk of the 2014 congressional election action won’t be in the House, but in the Senate. The disproportionate exposure for Senate Democrats is very clear, giving Republicans the opportunity to gain a large number of seats, and potentially the six they need for control of the chamber. However, the same was true last year, when instead of gaining two to four seats, the GOP ended up with a net loss of two. A repeat of that looks extremely unlikely, but whether Republicans are in a position to capitalize on their opportunities remains to be seen.
Because 2008 was such a bad year for Republicans, they have very few vulnerable seats left in this class. Democrats have a long shot at picking up Saxby Chambliss’s open seat in Georgia only if Michelle Nunn—daughter of longtime Democratic Sen. Sam Nunn—runs, and, more important, if Republicans nominate an exotic (read: self-destructive) nominee along the lines of then-Rep. Todd Akin in Missouri and Richard Mourdock in Indiana, both of whom seized defeat from the jaws of victory. In other words, Democrats’ challenge in Georgia is the equivalent of pulling off a two- or three-cushion shot in pool.
After Georgia, the only remote chances Democrats have are in Kentucky, upsetting Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and in Maine, a Democratic-leaning state but with a very popular GOP incumbent. The odds of a Democratic gain in the state, as long as Collins is running, are about nil.
via No Guarantee of a GOP Senate Majority – NationalJournal.com.
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