Narrow Path to Senate for Michelle Nunn in Georgia – NYTimes.com

The Georgia Republican primary is over, and so are Democratic wishes for their dream outcome.

Democrats had hoped they might face Paul Broun or Phil Gingrey, two Tea Party-backed conservatives with a record of outlandish statements. The possibility that one of those two might win the Republican nomination was a big part of why some thought Michelle Nunn, now officially the Democratic nominee, would have a good chance of winning this November.

But on Tuesday, Mr. Broun and Mr. Gingrey failed to advance to the runoff. Instead, Ms. Nunn will face David Perdue or Jack Kingston, who will battle to win the Republican nomination in July’s runoff primary. Mr. Perdue and Mr. Kingston are not especially strong candidates, but they haven’t yet said that evolution and the Big Bang theory are “lies straight from the pit of hell,” as Mr. Broun did. As a result, Ms. Nunn’s chance for victory is now weaker, even if the mediocre competition and her family name — she’s the daughter of the former senator Sam Nunn — make an upset possible.

In the racially polarized South, where white voters have been trending Republican for more than a generation, the Democratic route to 50 percent is mainly a matter of racial demographics. Democrats must wait for more nonwhite voters to overcome their disadvantage with white voters.

That wait might end soon in Georgia, but not in this November’s election. In the midterm balloting, the share of whites will be around 64 percent of registered voters, down from 72 percent in 2002, when the Democratic senator Max Cleland lost re-election by 7 points. Ms. Nunn will need nearly 30 percent of white voters to prevail. If Mr. Cleland were running today, his 30 or 31 percent of white voters would probably be enough to squeak out a win.

via Narrow Path to Senate for Michelle Nunn in Georgia – NYTimes.com.