NUNN HAS GEORGIA EDGE? – Greg Bluestein: “An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll that rolls out Saturday finds Democrats in an especially close race for the state’s top offices in November…Michelle Nunn, the Democratic front-runner in the Senate race, has built leads against each of the five top GOP Senate contenders in a potential November matchup, though her lead against businessman David Perdue is particularly narrow.” The tease of Saturday’s release included no specific numbers. [Journal-Constitution]
‘NO, UNDECIDED VOTERS DON’T BREAK FOR THE CHALLENGER’ – Aaron Blake revisits the theory that undecided voters “break for the challenger” between the final poll and Election Day. “According to a Fix study of 25 competitive U.S. Senate races held over the last four elections, undecideds actually appear to break more for the incumbent than for the challenger…Not one challenger who was trailing heading into Election Day was able to pull off the victory — even as six of them faced an incumbent who was below 50 percent in the polls…
So it appears the old adage doesn’t really hold — at least when it comes to the Senate.
Why does this all matter for 2014? It matters because there’s already a huge amount of chatter about various Senate polls and what they really mean. Many early polls have shown Democratic incumbents in tight races but well below 50 percent of the vote — the most recent being the New York Times/Kasier Family Foundation polls that showed Sens. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.) both in the low 40s. Others who have polled below 50 percent include Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and, to a lesser extent, Sens. Mark Udall (D-Colo.), Mark Begich (D-Alaska) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.).” [WashPost, see also HuffPollsters report from 2012]
via HUFFPOLLSTER: Who Cares About The Horse Race?.
Comments ( 0 )