GPB: Republicans more likely to vote for Libertarian candidate – I disagree

via A Runoff Election In November? That’s A Real Possibility | Georgia Public Broadcasting.

50 Plus One No Problem? Not So Fast

“I think there’s a very good possibility you could have one or both elections in a runoff,” says Tom Crawford, who writes the online political digest The Georgia Report.

He says the gubernatorial race is likelier to go to a runoff. And that’s partly because of Libertarian candidate, Andrew Hunt.

“I’ve seen him, talked to him, sized him up – actually a very impressive candidate,” Crawford said. “An attractive guy, speaks well, has a real grasp of the issues, and I think could draw an extra one or two percent of the vote away.”

He would pull those votes away from Gov. Deal.

Republicans vote for Libertarians more often than Democrats. Those votes would then revert to the Republican candidate most likely in the runoff. [emphasis added]

I disagree. In fact, I have data to backup my disagreement. From the recent poll for WRBL News 3, the Columbus Ledger-Enquirer, and PMB Radio, here are the cross tabs for the Gubernatorial and Senatorial races by Party Self-Identification.

Georgia Governor x Party Self-Identification

United States Senate x Party Self-Identification

In fact, there is no clear pattern to the Libertarian candidates drawing more from self-identified partisan voters.