Georgia Politics, Campaigns & Elections for June 20, 2013

Tea Party Rallies against IRS in Washington

On Tuesday, a bus left Town Center in Cobb County, carrying Georgia Tea Party advocates to Washington, DC for rallies against the IRS.

Carol Bolling, a Tea Party organizer from Georgia, said the IRS should be abolished. “I want something done now. There’s enough proof to know what they did,” she said of IRS officials.

The IRS came under fire starting on May 10 when a Washington IRS official apologized for the handling by agency employees in Cincinnati of applications for tax-exempt status submitted by some Tea Party-aligned conservative groups.

The Cincinnati agents, before deciding whether to grant tax-exempt status, had sent some of the non-profit groups’ applications to a special unit for closer scrutiny to see if the groups respected legal limits on political activity.

Dueling Polls on Immigration Reform

In the last week, issue advocacy groups have released polls that show 61% of Georgians supportin the Gang of Eight Immigration Reform bill and 55% opposed. How is that possible? Let’s look deeper and find out.

One week ago, the Partnership for a New American Economy touted a poll that they said showed a majority of Georgians support the immigration bill working its way through the Congress.

“Sixty-one percent of Georgians across political parties, more Republicans than Democrats, support this bill in Congress,” said Charles Kuck, of the Georgia Association of Latino Elected Officials.

“This poll is done to give evidence to our people in Congress, our Senators and Representatives, that Georgians want reform and they want reform now,” Kuck said.

The question asked was:

Q: There is bipartisan immigration reform legislation being debated in Washington. The bill would secure our borders, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status. If a long list of requirements is met over more than a decade, it provides eligibility for a path to citizenship. Would you support or oppose this proposal?

Here’s a link to the topline numbers for Georgia in the poll, conducted by Harper Polling.

Strongly Support 34%
Somewhat Support 27%
Somewhat Oppose 12%
Strongly Oppose 8%
Not Sure 19%

Yesterday, the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) released a poll that it claimed shows 55 percent of Georgians opposed to the exact same bill.

According to the poll, 55 percent of Georgia voters oppose S.744, the Gang of Eight immigration bill – including 34 percent who said they are “strongly opposed.” Only 32 percent of voters indicated that they support the bill and only 10 percent said they “strongly support” it.

The survey by FAIR begins by asking whether respondents are familiar with the legislation, then asks five questions about specific provisions. Then it asks the money question:

Based on these provisions, do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose enactment of the Gang of Eight immigration bill?

Strongly support 10%

Somewhat support 22%

Somewhat oppose 21%

Strongly oppose 34%

Not sure 14%

So, what are we to make of these two surveys that appear on the surface to give contradictory results? Here’s what I takeaway.

First, this demonstrates how important the actual questions asked and the structure of the survey are to the results you get. If you can’t get the full and actual questionnaire that was used, you should assume that either the numbers are cooked and the group promoting the survey is trying to hide something, or they aren’t competent in survey research. The groups sponsoring these two survey are advocacy groups and they paid a lot of money to get the results they wanted. Always be skeptical of paid advocates who tell you what poll results mean without allowing you to know exactly what they asked.

Second, turning to the actual content of the survey, I conclude that the issue of securing the borders is the most important part of the bill for most Georgia voters. In the FAIR survey, 46% of respondents ranked securing the border as most important, and only 16% say that legalizing immigrants already here is most important. Look back at the first question from the pro-immigration survey, and notice how it says that the Gang of Eight bill “would secure our borders” before asking if respondents support it. I would guess that without that language, the support for the bill would have been dramatically lower.

Substantial disagreement remains over whether the Gang of Eight immigration reform bill will actually secure the US borders, but in order to demonstrate voter support for the bill, the Partnership for a New American Economy question states that the bill will secure the borders. This makes the statement that “Sixty-one percent of Georgians across political parties, more Republicans than Democrats, support this bill in Congress,” by Georgia Association of Latino Elected Officials spokesman Charles Kuck intellectually dishonest at best, a carefully-crafted and Clinton-esque misleading of voters and the media at worst.

Finally, ask yourself two questions about the mainstream media in Georgia. First, why did they broadcast widely the pro-immigration bill survey, while ignoring the FAIR survey that calls it into questions? Second, on what other issues have they published polling that reinforces their preferred political policies while ignoring evidence that contradicts what they want you to believe?

Only in government accounting does spending $300,000 to save $100,000 make sense

Jim Galloway’s Political Insider revisits the issue of Dublin City Schools installing solar panels to provide power to the school system. Here’s the most important quote:

The $3.5 million, 1.08-megawatt system is expected to reduce the school district’s power bill by at least $100,000 the first year alone — enough to eliminate one furlough day for all teachers or hire two new ones.

The project is financed by a local option sales tax. Given the rising price of electricity, by 2019 the savings on utility payments will cover the annual $300,000 cost of the 25-year lease, said Chuck Ledbetter, Dublin’s school superintendent.

“Our bottom line is the bottom line,” he said.

On what planet does is make bottom-line sense to pay $300,000 in financing costs for a solar system that “saves” $100,000 per year? Only in government accounting does this make any sense.

In Georgia, schools systems are funded by property taxes levied by the local boards of education, which can be used for operating expenses like salaries, electric bills, and copier paper. Some counties have passed E-SPLOST sales taxes that can be used to pay only for capital expenditures, like brick-and-mortar schools.

In Dublin, the local school system didn’t have enough property tax money in its operating budget without extensive teacher furloughs and local elected officials were not willing to raise property taxes. Last November, the AJC estimated the budget shortfall at $3.5 million.

But they had money from E-SPLOST sales tax collections. It’s like being overdrawn in your checking account, but having a hefty balance in your retirement fund.

The problem was how to convert an operating expense into a capital expenditure so they could spend E-SPLOST money on their electric bill and free-up property tax money for teacher salaries to reduce the number of furlough days.

And that’s where the solar project came in. By leasing the solar system for $300,000 per year using E-SPLOST funds, they “save” $100,000 in property tax funds, which can now be used to reduce teacher furlough days. It’s like magic that only works if (a) you follow government accounting procedures; and (b) you don’t care that you’re actually paying three times as much for electricity because you’re using somebody else’s money. Classic government thinking.

Here are two more very important issues that we’ll be discussing at much greater length.From Galloway’s article again:

Greenavations Power will own the solar panels in Dublin. But because the school system will lease them, the situation is akin to a homeowner powering up a diesel generator in the backyard, Green said.

That’s simply not true and not possible, because a school system is prohibited from entering into long-term leases like a 25-year solar lease. The actual financing structure is much more complicated, and we’ll be laying out how the school system side-stepped the state law prohibition on long-term leases.

Second is this statement:

Given the rising price of electricity, by 2019 the savings on utility payments will cover the annual $300,000 cost of the 25-year lease, said Chuck Ledbetter, Dublin’s school superintendent.

“Our bottom line is the bottom line,” he said.

Again, we’re in fiction-land, financially-speaking. I pulled out my trusty spreadsheet to check the math here. If you accept that the school system’s solar installation will generate $100,000 worth of electricity in 2013, will it really produce $300,000 worth of electricity in 2019?

The only way that math works out is if you assume that electricity prices will go up by 20% every year from 2013 through 2019, a leap of faith that defies historical trends and current forecasts. Since 2001, the highest recorded increase in the yearly average retail electric cost has been under 13%, with three years showing decresed cost over the prior year.

The real bottom line in the Dublin solar case is that local residents are paying at least three times as much of their tax dollars for the electricity being generated by a solar installation that they will continue to pay for over twenty-five years, while being told that they’re “saving” money.

This would be distressing news if I lived and paid taxes in Dublin, but why should I care? Because I live in DeKalb County, with a dysfunctional school board, and an E-SPLOST. If Dublin can play accounting games, so can DeKalb County. And if E-SPLOST funds don’t cover the costs, property taxes will be raised.

The other reason Georgians should pay attention to this is that the exact same people who brought this kind of “saving” to Dublin are now trying to get the Georgia Public Service Commission to approve a massive solar project that will “save” Georgia Power ratepayers just like Dublin taxpayers are “saving” money. Can you afford savings like that?

Panels to decide whether to suspend State Rep. Tyrone Brooks, DeKalb CEO Burrell Ellis

On Friday, June 28, 2013 at 11 AM, the panel including Attorney General Sam Olens, Democratic State Senate Leader Steve Henson and Democratic State House Leader Stacey Abrams will meet to discuss whether to recommend that Governor Nathan Deal suspend State Rep. Tyrone Brooks after he was indicted on federal charges.

As I mentioned yesterday in the morning news email, Gov. Deal will also name a panel to decide whether to recommend he suspend DeKalb CEO Burrell Ellis after he was indicted by DeKalb County District Attorney Robert James. According to the AJC,

State law says once Gov. Nathan Deal gets the charges of theft, extortion and conspiracy against Ellis, the governor must appoint a panel within two weeks to consider whether to suspend the CEO. The commission has another 14 days to make a recommendation to the governor.

“You have to think, he will have to be suspended,” said Bob Wilson, a former DeKalb district attorney. “The accusations are directly related to the functions he has in his office.”

Deal must perform his own political calculus. He has been wary of intervening in local affairs at the risk of being branded a meddler. But he must also account for the political consequences if he allows a county of 700,000 people be led by a politician indicted on 14 felonies amid what could be a lengthy trial.

If Ellis steps down or is suspended, County Commissioner Lee May, as presiding officer, would then take over the top job.

Abortion bill splits GOP Congressional delegation, will it split Right to Life activists?

Things are moving very quickly on this, so I’ll just review some of the events briefly, and we’ll continue to discuss this as it ~~evolves~~ changes over time.

Congressmen Paul Broun and Rob Woodall voted against the House bill that would have outlawed abortions performed after 20 weeks, except to save the life of the mother or in cases of rape or incest. This vote was over those last two exceptions, and was in accordance with the position taken by Georgia Right to Life.

It has been suggested that this puts Broun in the best position to win the coveted Georgia Right to Life endorsement, which would be especially important if the Federal government requires Georgia do away with runoff elections in federal races. That real possibility could mean a Senate nominee chosen with less than 30 percent support among Republican primary voters.

In fact, yesterday, Georgia Right to Life President Dan Becker, in an “Open Letter to the Pro-Life Movement in Georgia,” published on the organizations website wrote:

Rep. Paul Broun actually went to the well and asked that his name be removed from a bill he co-sponsored. This was a courageous move on his part and worthy of praise. He consistently stands for the sanctity of life and he did NOT cave to significant political pressure from within his own leadership. He was faced with the specter of scoring poorly with a NO vote on many of the leading pro-family organizations scorecards. This to me is a statesman that will defend our lives, our liberties and our constitution. In a poll released Tuesday he is just 2 percentage points from the lead. He is worthy of your financial and volunteer support. Let’s elect him our new US Senator! [emphasis added]

In response, Erick Erickson suggests that someone should start a new pro-life organization in Georgia to advocate for measures that are more consistent with National Right to Life’s acceptance of the rape and incest exceptions.

Stephen Simpson announces for 10th Congressional District

To no one’s surprise, Stephen Simpson announced yesterday that he will be a candidate for Congress in the district currently represented by Paul Broun.

During his announcement speech, given before about 30 supporters, family members and staffers, Simpson called it “wicked and corrupt” to pass a $17 trillion debt onto future generations.

He also supports the so-called Fair Tax, a plan heralded by many conservatives to replace much, if not all, of government revenue with money from consumption taxes. It has been criticized as shifting burdens to the poor, who spend a higher percentage of their incomes on consumption goods.

But that tax plan will free up money for businesses to expand and create more opportunities, he said. It would be much simpler and revenue neutral, he said, while “helping neutralize the vast power of the IRS.”