House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s unexpected defeat has left many looking for equally unexpected answers. One suggestion is that his opponent, David Brat, was bolstered by Democratic crossover voters, who might have contributed to an increase in turnout from 2012. Mr. Cantor’s pollster, John McLaughlin, said the race was decided by Democratic voters.
But this was not a close race, and Democratic spoilers probably did not contribute enough votes to account for Mr. Cantor’s margin of defeat.
Mr. Cantor lost by an 11-point margin, and he lost just about everywhere in his district. Mr. Brat fared best in heavily Republican Hanover County, while Mr. Cantor kept the race closer in the more competitive Richmond inner suburbs.
But it would be hard to argue that Democrats made up the margin of victory. Turnout was still far, far higher in Republican precincts. Democratic areas did not contribute a large number of votes: Only 5,722 votes were cast in precincts where Mr. Cuccinelli failed to eclipse 40 percent of the vote. Mr. Brat won by 7,212 votes over all.
via Did Democratic Voters Defeat Eric Cantor? Probably Not – NYTimes.com.
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