SOS says early voting up, I disagree

Secretary of State Brian Kemp has released figures on this year’s early voting, along with a comparison to 2010, the last year in which we had a gubernatorial race on the Primary ballot. He claims, “The numbers make it clear that Georgia voters are increasingly taking advantage of early voting opportunities,” but I disagree. Here’s the press release, along with some analysis after the jump

Secretary Reports Early Voting Numbers

Atlanta – Early in-person voting ended on Friday, May 16.  While mail-in absentee ballots can still be cast until the polls close tomorrow evening, the majority of early votes have been cast.

Number of ballots cast:  239,281

Number of ballots voted in person:  214,975
Number of mail-in ballots returned:  24,306
Number of mail-in ballots outstanding:  14,385
Number of ballots cast, Republican:  147,995
Number of ballots cast, Democratic:  88,316
Number of ballots cast, non-partisan:  2,970

Compared with four years ago, early voting numbers are higher than they were in 2010.

Number of ballots cast in 2010:  212,487
Number of ballots voted in person in 2010:  162,065
Number of mail-in ballots returned in 2010:  50,422

“The numbers make it clear that Georgia voters are increasingly taking advantage of early voting opportunities,” said Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp.  “The counties have done a wonderful job of fine-tuning the early voting process.”

In 2010, in person early voting was spread out over a seven-week period rather than the three-week period that exists now.  The numbers reflect that by compressing the process, more Georgia voters actually vote early.

“This early voting period was an extremely smooth process,” said Kemp.  “I appreciate the work of my staff, the county election officials and the many poll workers and volunteers who worked so hard.”

Brian Kemp has been Secretary of State since January 2010. Among the offices wide-ranging responsibilities, the Secretary of State is charged with conducting secure, accessible and fair elections, the registration of corporations, and the regulation of securities and professional license holders.

I think a better comparison is to the 2012 General Primary, which was during a Presidential year, but we’re talking about the July General Primary, not the March Presidential Preference. In the July 31, 2012 Primary election, 413,361 early votes were cast.

So, 2014 has seen 239,281 early and advance votes cast, but which prior year is a better comparison? Kemp says 2010, which has merit, but I think 2012, as voting behavior become habit over time, but there’s room for disagreement. I think that this year will see markedly lower turnout than the 2010 General Primary where some 680,000 GOP votes were cast in the Governor’s race, and far fewer votes than the 2012 General Primary in which nearly 845,000 votes were cast in the top-of-the-ticket PSC District 3 race on the Republican side.

Either way, we’ll know tomorrow night what turnout looks like.