The 8 most pivotal Senate seats in 2014 | The Monkey Cage – WashingtonPost.com

Two other races deserve mention for not being on the current list of eight races that our model currently predicts will determine who controls the Senate.

First, there’s Georgia.

Our model gives the Republicans a 94 percent chance of winning the seat, placing it safely in the set of 17 elections where the Republican chances are very good. In contrast, Larry Sabato rates the election “leans Republican,” Charlie Cook calls it a “toss-up,” and Nate Silver gives the Republicans a 70 percent chance of winning.

The reason our model views the election as safe for the Republicans is that Georgia is a very Republican state in a midterm election year with an unpopular Democratic president. This is a basic recipe for a Republican win.

On top of that, the Republicans are likely to nominate a strong candidate, though which one remains to be seen. The likely Democratic nominee is Michelle Nunn. She is the daughter of one of Georgia’s most beloved politicians, former senator Sam Nunn.

But, Michelle Nunn has no previous experience in elective office, and when our model judges “candidate quality” it is on the basis of previous elective office experience.

via The 8 most pivotal Senate seats in 2014.