Zac McCrary: Sweet Georgia Blue: Why Democrats Should Be Bullish on the Peach State

In 2012, Georgia was the second most competitive state carried by Mitt Romney (+7.8 percent Romney) — behind only North Carolina (+2.0 percent Romney). Romney’s margin in Georgia was narrower than his winning margins in 2008-cycle swing states Missouri (+9.4 percent Romney) and Indiana (+10.2 percent Romney) as well as in forward-looking Democratic target states Arizona (+9.1 percent Romney) and Texas (+15.8 percent Romney). And in 2008, Georgia was the third most competitive state won by McCain, behind only Missouri and Montana.

Georgia is not only among the more competitive GOP-leaning states, but also has become more competitive each of the last two cycles. John Kerry’s share of the vote in Georgia lagged his national vote share by 6.9 percentage points, despite sharing his ticket with a native of neighboring North Carolina. In 2008, Obama narrowed that gap by a full percentage point to a 5.9 percent disparity in his Georgia vote (46.99 percent) and national performance (52.93 percent). Obama’s Georgia vote share declined in 2012, as did his national vote share. However, the Obama vote share decreased less in Georgia than it did nationwide, and Obama’s 2012 Georgia performance came even closer to his nationwide vote share (5.57 percent vs. national) than did his 2008 performance (-5.99 percent).

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As Georgia was not perceived to be a swing state in either 2008 or 2012, the Obama campaign did not invest in significant paid communications or field activity. No amount of Obama investment in Georgia would have been likely to put the state in the Democratic column in 2012, and if it were truly competitive, Republicans would have countered with spending of their own. However, if the Obama campaign had allocated just a fraction of the $24 million spent on television adverting in North Carolina to Georgia, it is almost a certainty that Romney’s single-digit margin in Georgia would have been even narrower.

What is driving this steady shift toward Democrats?

Most fundamentally, Georgia is quickly becoming less white and less rural. In 2000, Georgia’s population was 63 percent white; as of the 2010 Census the state’s population is 56 percent white. Of the state’s 1.5 million new residents between 2000 and 2010, more than 80 percent (1.2 million, or 81 percent) were non-white.

Over the past decade, the 6 percent growth among Georgia’s white population pales in comparison to the 26 percent growth rate among African Americans. This is in stark contrast to the growth patterns of the 1990s, when Georgia’s white population grew by more than double that rate (16 percent). Since 1990, Georgia has gained more than 1.2 million African-American residents and has served, according to The Wall Street Journal, as a “magnet for black professionals” from other parts of the country.

However, Georgia’s increased competitiveness is not driven solely by African-American voters. Georgia’s Hispanic population grew by 96 percent over the last decade — a growth rate double the national average and second only to North Carolina’s. From 1990-2010, the state’s Hispanic population has risen from roughly 100,000 to more than 800,000 — now totaling 9.1 percent of the state’s population. Additionally, Georgia’s Asian-American community grew by 81 percent from 2000-2010 and has almost quintupled since 1990.

via Zac McCrary: Sweet Georgia Blue: Why Democrats Should Be Bullish on the Peach State.