We warned you it was possible, and now we know it’s likely: FiveThirtyEight projects there is about a 70 percent chance the Georgia Senate race between Democrat Michelle Nunn and Republican David Perdue will go to a runoff in January. Moreover, it’s unclear who would be favored in a runoff.
Three new polls released Friday showed just how close this race is. CNN put Nunn at 47 percent and Perdue at 44 percent. An Abt SRBI poll for the Atlanta Journal Constitution found Perdue with 44 percent and Nunn with 42 percent. And a Landmark Communications survey had the two tied at 47 percent. With those polls included, the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast projects a tie, 47.7 percent to 47.7 percent (Nunn has a 51 percent chance of winning).
The key variable in this equation remains Libertarian Amanda Swafford. Mathematically, Nunn or Perdue’s margin of victory on Nov. 4 must be greater than Swafford’s share of the vote in order to avoid a runoff. Swafford averaged 4.7 percent in the three surveys published Friday. Our model projects her to win 4.6 percent on Election Day. Neither Nunn nor Perdue has led by more than 4 percentage points in any poll since the middle of September. Neither has led by more than 3 percentage points in any poll taken this month. In other words, it will be hard to avoid a runoff.
via Senate Update: There’s A 70 Percent Chance Georgia Will Go To A Runoff | FiveThirtyEight.
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