Senate Update: A January Runoff In Georgia Is Getting More Likely | FiveThirtyEight

17
Oct

Senate Update: A January Runoff In Georgia Is Getting More Likely | FiveThirtyEight

But the more intriguing scenario involves Georgia, which would hold a runoff Jan. 6. That’s right. Georgia’s runoff would occur after Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3.

What’s the chance of a runoff there? It seems to be higher by the day. A SurveyUSA poll out Wednesday gives Republican David Perdue just a 46 percent to 45 percent lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn. The FiveThirtyEight forecast is a bit more optimistic for Perdue, projecting him to lead the November vote by 3.2 percentage points. You’ll note I’m hesitant to say “win.” The reason is that the Libertarian candidate, Amanda Swafford, has averaged 5 percent in the past five polls to include her as a choice. The SurveyUSA poll put her at 4 percent. It’s impossible for Perdue to beat Nunn by 3 percentage points in November and get over 50 percent if Swafford earns 4 percent of the vote.

In other words, if Nunn and Perdue are close, and Swafford does decently, Georgia is headed for a runoff.

FiveThirtyEight’s model has Swafford winning just 2.5 percent of the vote in November and Perdue barely topping 50 percent. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for Perdue; he could easily fall below 50 percent in later projections and force a January runoff, in which he would be favored, yet not guaranteed, to win.

via Senate Update: A January Runoff In Georgia Is Getting More Likely | FiveThirtyEight.

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