Rising state revenues could boost Deal’s re-election campaign | www.myajc.com

Stronger-than-expected tax collections are giving Gov. Nathan Deal a fiscal boost right when he needs it: a year before he faces voters for re-election.

Figures obtained by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Friday suggest that the state wrapped up its fiscal year June 30 with far more revenue than it had estimated. This means the state’s reserves may now top $600 million, the highest level since before the Great Recession. It also means that, for the first time in six years, state budget writers are not ordering agencies to submit cuts in their budgets for the coming year.

After years of austerity, the extra money will bring talk of pay raises, new tax cuts, increases in school funding and a host of potential spending. And for good reason: governors facing re-election typically love to make those kinds of promises.

But Deal has kept a lid on spending since taking office, largely out of necessity, and his aides suggest no immediate plans to change that strategy. Key lawmakers warn that the state still might not have enough money to make big election-year promises, even with a surplus in the fiscal year that just ended June 30.

“You’ve always got the choice of whether to spend it or save it,” said Senate Appropriations Chairman Jack Hill, R-Reidsville. “I just don’t see several hundred million dollars laying around to spend.”

That may be true, but it’s traditionally been tough for politicians not to spend any extra tax money, or give it back to voters in the form of tax breaks or other incentives. That desire could be tested in an election year where Deal faces a Republican rival who claims he hasn’t done enough to slash taxes and spending.

“It’s just human nature that what has happened most recently is what voters are going to remember,” said Steve Anthony, who lectures on state politics at Georgia State University and served as chief of staff to longtime House Speaker Tom Murphy. “What they are going to remember is what’s happened in the last six months.”

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