Randy Evans – The Evans Report: Why this election is so important

Your Georgia Desk

Why this election is so important

Every election politicians insist that this election is the most important election for the future of the United States. As strange as it may sound, all of them are right.

As the most powerful and successful country in the world, the direction (or a change in direction) of the United States at each moment in history makes each successive election the most important election for the future. Certainly, the last three elections illustrate this point.

When this election cycle started, insiders considered two things as safe bets. First, that control of the U.S. House of Representatives would not be at play in 2014, but the U.S. Senate would. Second, that Georgia would be a safe state (albeit a state in transition) for Republicans including both the gubernatorial and Senatorial elections.

History will eventually determine whether they are right. Regardless of the actual outcome, few insiders predicted how this election cycle has actually progressed. For example, except for The Evans Report, virtually no insiders predicted just how close the Georgia gubernatorial and Senatorial elections would be in the last days of the election cycle.

In fairness, political prognosticators were right about control of the House of Representatives. By every measure, Republicans appear poised to not only retain control of the House, but to increase their margin significantly.

In large part, much of the credit for the GOP’s Congressional success goes to Georgia Congressman Lynn Westmoreland. He is the deputy chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee and leader of the NRCC’s candidate recruitment efforts.

Congressman Westmoreland’s role increased the NRCC’s premium on defeating Twelfth District Democratic Congressman John Barrow. In the last round of redistricting, the Republican-controlled Georgia General Assembly re-crafted the Twelfth Congressional District so that it has a predominantly Republican-leaning vote based on recent voting trends.

Yet, notwithstanding the gerrymandering, Congressman Barrow has fended off previous attempts to unseat him and heading into this election appeared likely to win again. However, President Barack Obama’s unpopularity has made the seat much more competitive than most expected.

As a result, both political parties are pouring resources into the race. While certainly a feather for Congressman Westmoreland’s cap, the outcome of the Twelfth Congressional District will have little impact on Republicans’ efforts to retain (and even build on) control of the House.

The same is not true for Georgia’s open Senate seat vacated by retiring Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss.

As the 2014 election cycle began, Republicans needed to pick up six seats currently held by Democrats to gain control of the Senate. Everyone largely conceded a three seat pick-up (in West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota) for Republicans for a variety of reasons.

Then, most people expected Republicans to concentrate on pick-ups in Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina with Democrats focusing their efforts on Georgia’s open seat and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s seat in Kentucky.

After that, both parties had their list of ‘Tier 2’ and ‘Tier 3′ races.

Notably, Democrats have far fewer targets because the numbers are just not there. Of the 36 Senate elections in 2014, 21 are held by Democrats.

What has Democrats concerned is that many of the Republicans’ Tier 2 races have become Tier 1 races. These include Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire. As a result, absent a Democratic pick-up, Republicans need only win three of the seven races after West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota in order to gain control of the Senate.

Of course, the key phrase is “absent a Democratic pick-up.” In Kentucky, Senator McConnell is enjoying the perks of leadership with virtually unlimited resources and the recognition that should Republicans win control, Senator McConnell will become the Senate Majority Leader. That leaves Georgia.

While possible, it is unlikely that Republicans will sweep all of their targeted races. On the other hand, Democrats concede they will lose some seats. The net effect is that just one seat could be the difference between a Democratic-controlled Senate and a Republican-controlled Senate.

Just one seat could separate who sets the agenda in the Senate, controls committees, and otherwise determines what happens and when. Although some of the more archaic rules in the Senate limit how much gets done, the rules permit the majority to decide what to consider and when to consider it. With the modified filibuster rules, that power only became greater.

With the stakes so high, a virtual avalanche of resources have poured in as Georgia’s Senate race remains competitive with the prospect of a run-off becoming increasingly likely. As a result, both political parties are all in.

Georgia’s Senate seat is just one vote in the Senate. But, it could be the deciding vote. And, given how close some believe the election will be, it could be just one Georgian’s vote that makes the difference. With so much on the line, every vote counts, so go vote!

Randy Evans is an attorney and columnist.