New Poll shows Gingrich 38, Romney 24, Santorum 22, Paul 3

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution commissioned a survey by Mason-Dixon, but my confidence in the poll is lessened by the fact that the AJC has not released the sample size or methodology. The poll was conducted Wednesday through Friday.

[UPDATED] I stand corrected: the Mason-Dixon methodology is available here.

Nonetheless, here’s some information from the AJC:

…12 percent are undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

…39 percent of respondents said they thought Romney had the best chance of defeating Obama. Only 30 percent chose Gingrich, and just 12 percent chose Santorum.

Gingrich’s victory in the state is nearly assured, said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the poll for the AJC. The real fight will be for second place, Coker said — an important battle not just for momentum, but in the all-important scramble for delegates. The outcome, he said, could hinge on the undecideds.

Asked whether they chose a candidate based on shared beliefs versus a candidate who would have the best chance of becoming president, 80 percent of Romney’s supporters said the latter. That compares to 55 percent of Gingrich’s voters who chose him because they believe he can beat Obama. Santorum and Paul’s supporters, meanwhile, more often said they chose based on compatibility on issues, not on electability.

…the race for second is close. Romney and Santorum must hope to stay above 20 percent in Georgia because of the state’s new rules for awarding delegates. Any candidate who gets at least 20 percent of the statewide vote will be awarded a share of 34 at-large delegates to the national convention in Tampa this summer. Forty-two delegates will be awarded based on the vote by congressional district.

“We have a final push going on the phones and hope to convince voters, especially women, that Santorum has been targeted and mischaracterized by the left on his positions,” said Santorum supporter Tim Echols, chairman of the 
Georgia Public Service Commission.

Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz said a Gingrich win in Georgia might not be enough.

“A win in Georgia doesn’t by itself really help him that much,” Abramowitz said. “Obviously, it’s better than losing in Georgia. If he wins Georgia even by a pretty good margin but does poorly everywhere else, it makes it pretty difficult for him.”