Nate Silver rates Georgia 85% for GOP retention

From Nate Silver’s Five-thirty-eight blog:

Republican voters are likely to have a wide field to pick from to replace their retiring incumbent Saxby Chambliss, probably including several very conservative representatives who could prove to be high-risk candidates in the general election.

But it is unclear whether Democrats are positioned well enough in Georgia to take advantage of the opportunity.

The state has been modestly competitive in the past two presidential elections, but that is partly because of high turnout among African-American and college-age voters for Mr. Obama, groups that are less likely to turn out in midterm years.

Polling suggests that moderate Democrats like Representative John Barrow or former Gov. Roy Barnes could be tough opponents, but neither has declared for the race, nor have Democrats succeeded in recruiting any major candidates so far.