More Opportunities for the More Unpopular Party – NYTimes.com

The Senate is not affected by redistricting, but this year, the draw is bad for Democrats. After New Jersey’s special election in October, which the Democrat Cory Booker is favored to win, 20 of the 34 seats that will be up next year are currently held by Democrats. Moreover, almost all the most competitive contests are in Republican-dominated, states: Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Alaska and Montana — states that went decisively last year for the Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney.

The two Republican-held Senate seats that afford Democrats the best chance for a pickup also are in Republican-leaning states. In Georgia, the incumbent Republican is retiring, and Michelle Nunn, the daughter of a popular Democrat, former Senator Sam Nunn, is running. It is not improbable that a far-right Republican congressman will emerge from the crowded primary field. There is also Kentucky, where Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, faces a Tea Party challenge from the right and would most likely face the state’s Democratic secretary of state in the general election. Even in the most favorable circumstances, Kentucky is a tough slog; Mr. Obama lost the state by 23 points.

Two Democratic Senate leaders, Harry Reid of Nevada and Charles E. Schumer of New York, outsmarted themselves in one race, South Dakota, pressuring Brendan Johnson, a U.S. attorney and son of the retiring incumbent senator, Tim Johnson, not to run in order to clear the way for former Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. She did not run, nor did Mr. Johnson, whom top South Dakota Democrats believe would have been the stronger candidate. Now, Republicans are heavy favorites to win that seat.

Adding to the head winds is a malaise among core Democrats. The number of people who think the country is on the wrong track is growing, as are negative attitudes about the economy. Although the president is much more popular than Republicans, his job-approval rating — in the mid-40 percent range — is the lowest for any second-term president at this juncture since Richard Nixon. That makes it hard to gin up a base next year.

“Democrats are better off only in comparison to Republicans,” said Frederick S. Yang, a Democratic pollster.

Whatever the outcome next year, Mr. Yang said, Republicans should remember that their problems are more deep-seated: “They may win some battles; they’re losing the war.”

via More Opportunities for the More Unpopular Party – NYTimes.com.