How the G.O.P. Can Court the Working Class – NYTimes.com

A defining feature of Republican economic policy for decades has been its benefits for the well off. The stated goals of that policy have been to shrink government and lift economic growth, but the main method has been cutting taxes much more for high-income families than others. At the same time, the party has opposed an expansion of health insurance for low- and middle-income families, increases in the minimum wage and college financial aid and extensions of jobless benefits.

The country’s voting patterns largely reflect these stances, despite all the talk about the conservative white working class or affluent liberal elites. Democrats handily won voters with family incomes below $50,000 in this year’s midterm elections, and Republicans handily won those with incomes above $100,000. The same has been true in nearly every national election for the last two decades.

One of the most intriguing questions heading into the 2016 presidential campaign is how serious Republicans are about trying to change this situation.

A new Republican economic approach could still revolve around cutting taxes, but the cuts would no longer be focused on the affluent. “I would expect to see a marriage of sorts between shrinking government and helping the middle class,” said Michael R. Strain of the American Enterprise Institute. Specifically, several conservatives, including Conn Carroll of Townhall.com and Timothy P. Carney of The Washington Examiner, have called for a cut in the payroll tax, which helps pay for Medicare and Social Security. Though it receives less attention, 63 percent of taxpayers pay more in payroll taxes than income taxes.

Policies aside, there is no question that the Republican candidates in 2016 will claim to be allies of the middle class. Mark Hemingway, of The Weekly Standard, wrote last week on Twitter that he worried about nominating Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney, because neither would easily be able “to run *hard* against Hillary the elitist.” Republicans with more of a middle-class image include Mr. Rubio and three Midwestern governors: John Kasich of Ohio, Mike Pence of Indiana and Scott Walker of Wisconsin.