Guest Post: Greg Williams of GregsListLive on HD 24

Special Elections Analysis and Prediction for Georgia House District 24

Summer 2015 in Georgia: How will the Political World remember this time of mass resignations combined with palpable lethargy from the Electorate? Perhaps they will channel Dickens in the post-mortem:

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”

Special Election season in Georgia for the 2015 cycle has been a windfall for the political consultant world, a windfall for the retiring politicians that have moved on to cushier realms, and a windfall for Citizen Journalists, blessed with the responsibility to cover a multitude of races that are largely neglected by the general populace.

Three competitive, power-brokering seats (HD 24 runoff, HD80, and HD146) face judgment from the Electorate on July 14 and we will analyze them in numerical, not necessarily dramatic order. We will also take a little bit of wonky license and assume that people reading this series are political nerds and don’t require complete exposition/background of every candidate.

House District 24 (Forsyth County)

The HD24 seat opened up after Rep. Mark Hamilton resigned to pursue other opportunities. 4 candidates filed paperwork, all with the “R” moniker by their name, and competed in a relative sprint to the finish line culminating in a Mid-June Election date. Sheri Gilligan, a Forsyth County native and previous challenger to Mark Hamilton, nearly achieved an outright win vs. her 3 competitors, coming up 3 votes shy of the critical 50% + 1 vote necessary in Georgia. This triggered a runoff against 2nd place finished David Van Sant, a personal injury attorney armed with an endorsement from influential Talk Radio host Erick Erickson. Since “anything can happen in a runoff”, including additional revenue for campaign consultants, Van Sant embarked on a runoff campaign in spite of the district’s clear support of Gilligan as their next House Rep.

Van Sant’s second place finish surprised many, including this author, as his recent voting history and campaign donations showed an affinity for the Democrat side of the aisle.

Irrefutable documentation revealed a couple of inconvenient facts for Republican dominated Forsyth County voters, such as Van Sant voting in the 2012 Democrat primary and a history of recent contributions to Democrat candidates, including former 2014 US Senate candidate Michelle Nunn. These revelations prompted Van Sant to set up an entire web page dedicated to explaining the rationale for his financial and electoral decisions.

“David had grown weary of the Republican Party continuing to prop-up weak, unprincipled candidates on the ballot that are not true conservatives. In 2012, a year that Georgia was clearly going to be won by Republicans, David pulled a Democrat ballot to protest the lack of principled conservatives.”

The explanation for the Democrat vote can be found in full at his “Myth page” http://votevansant.com/myths/

The “Myth” page also provides excuses, er, rationale for his donations to the Michelle Nunn Senate campaign, which Van Sant described as a “favor for a friend” in more detail during a WSBTV Interview with Reporter Lori Geary.

Donation to Democrat Senate Candidate Michelle Nunn

Van Sant Contributions to other Non-Republicans

Van Sant, to his credit, garnered enough votes for a second place finish and made the runoff, which took the predictable turn of negativity and a literal “He said, she said” back and forth banter. Van Sant inexplicably challenged Gilligan’s work experience, which includes stints at the CIA and the Navy Reserve. Gilligan confronted the allegations with copious documentation and a literal suitcase comprised of photos with management, letters of recommendation, and 7 years of Benefit Statements from the CIA.

I had the opportunity to interview her on my radio show last week and she said the attacks from Van Sant (and ensuing investigation by the aforementioned Geary) allowed her some Prime Time advertising that her campaign would have “never been able to afford” otherwise.

Due to her considerable electoral strength exhibited in the June 14 election and continued passion of supporters, Greg’s List predicts a resounding win for Sheri Gilligan on July 14, with a 75%-25% margin.