Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for September 29, 2014

William the Conqueror, Duke of Normandy, invaded England on September 28, 1066.

General George Washington led continental troops into the siege of British forces under General Cornwallis at Yorktown, Virginia on September 28, 1781.

On September 28, 1863, two Union generals lost their commands after the Confederates routed federal forces at the Battle of Chickamauga.

On September 28, 1889, Georgia Governor John B. Gordon signed legislation designating January 19th a state holiday in honor of Robert E. Lee’s birthday. Lee’s birthday is still a state holiday, though it has become “a moveable feast.”

Sir Albert Henry George Grey, 4th Earl Grey was appointed British Governor General of Canada on September 26, 1904. We shall drink his tea in his honor this afternoon.

On September 26, 1928, future President Franklin D. Roosevelt spoke in Atlanta on behalf of Democrat Alfred Smith’s campaign for President.

Atlanta-born Robert Trent “Bobby” Jones won his first Grand Slam on September 27, 1930.

WSB-TV took to the airwaves for the first time on September 29, 1948.

On September 26, 1960, Democratic Senator John F. Kennedy and Republican Vice President Richard M. Nixon met in the first nationally-televised Presidential debate.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections

AJC Liberal columnist Jay Bookman wrote last week that the sky is falling for Georgia Republicans,

“Among voters 49 and younger, Democrat Michelle Nunn has a nine-point advantage over Republican David Perdue. Among those 50 and older, Perdue has an 11-point margin. If you’re a GOP strategist in this state, those numbers have to alarm you about the future. ”

But put down the Pepto-Bismol, my fellow Republican strategists. The news isn’t nearly as dire, in fact it doesn’t even really qualify as news. Because Jay Bookman’s margin of error is huge.

We’ll just deal with the SurveyUSA poll for 11Alive WXIA-TV, the first he cites, and we’ll discuss only the 18-34 group for simplicity. Among those voters, 40% said they would vote for David Perdue, the Republican and 45% for Michelle Nunn, the Democrat. We’ll call that margin “Nunn +5”

GaPundit readers should know that the first thing I look at is the “Statement of Methodology,” usually, as here, the last part of the published report. Two things stand out. First,

This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer…. All respondents heard the questions asked identically

That means this was a robopoll. One issue with Robopolls is that they tend to systematically produce a sample that has lower participation from younger voters. I can say that typically we see 2-5% of voters in the youngest category of our robopolls. To get them to the 15% seen in the SurveyUSA results, that requires significant weighting, which can amplify your error.

Second, this statement,

Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population.

My first response to the weighting scenario is that I prefer to weight to known and projected composition of the Georgia voter poll, which can be very different from the census numbers. But setting that aside, we must consider the sample size of the sub-sample that is these younger voters.

With a reported sample size of 550 voters, of whom 15% are in the 18-34 age group, our effective sample size when discussing those voters is 82.5 voters. We’ll be generous and round that up to 83. Checking my handy-dandy Margin of Error calculator, we see that the margin of error for a sample size of 83 respondents is a whopping +/-10.76 points.

In a scenario where Michelle Nunn has a lead of +5 among 18-34 voters, a +/-10.76 margin of error renders that 5-point lead meaningless. And that’s giving SurveyUSA the benefit of the doubt that their repondent pool includes close to 15% of 18-34 year olds. If, as I suspect is the case, they got more like 5% respondents in that age group, their actual sample size of 18-34 year olds is more like 27.5 voters, and the Margin of Error among that group is more like +/- 18.52 points.

This is where knowing the importance of Margin of Error calculations comes in handy, and where understanding survey methodology and analysis can prevent you from drawing embarrassing wrong conclusions. It’s also why when I publish results of a robopoll, you’re more likely to see a sample size in the range of 1500+ respondents.

This is a great example of where a little knowledge and a poll can be dangerous.

I’m not going to get into the weeds on this next poll, it’s more for fun, amusement, and enlightenment.

There’s been a lot of ink spilled on the Oxford comma, the comma that goes before “and” in a list of three or more things. Is it a grammatical must or an unnecessary blight? Grammatical experts have weighed in, but what does the average American think?

FiveThirtyEight and SurveyMonkey Audience ran a poll from June 3 to 5 asking 1,129 Americans which camp they fell into, and wouldn’t you believe it? We’re split on that comma.

We asked respondents which sentence was, in their opinion, more grammatically correct: “It’s important for a person to be honest, kind and loyal.” Or: “It’s important for a person to be honest, kind, and loyal.” The latter has an Oxford comma, the former none.

The result was pretty much down the middle, with pro-Oxford partisans commanding 57 percent of the vote and opponents to the tyranny of the extra comma grabbing 43 percent. Although those numbers might be enough to defeat Eric Cantor, it’s hardly a clear victory for the Oxfordians.

Something we missed

In March, the Atlanta Business Chronicle ran a story about Georgia’s excellent business climate that you may have missed – I did – an American Express report said that Georgia ranks number one in the nation for growth in women-owned businesses.

The Peach State has an estimated 317,200 women-owned firms (up 117.9 percent since 1997) that employ 240,200 people (up 26 percent since 1997) and generate $45.6 million in revenue (up 80.4 percent since 1997).

Atlanta’s women-owned businesses also put up some impressive numbers: 202,400 firms (up 63.1 percent since 1997) that employ 158,200 (up 32.3 percent since 1997) and generate $33.4 million in revenue (up 54.8 percent since 1997).

One thing that conservatives have trouble articulating is our philosophy that a rising tide lifts all boats. Rather than try to help this group or that group, we tend to think that if we wish to help, say women, the best thing we can do is create a stronger economy so that jobs are plentiful and wages pushed higher by competition for employees; that fostering successful businesses allows them to create jobs and a market for goods and services that can be filled by women, African-Americans, Hispanics, or any other group you can think of.

I would argue that Georgia’s inviting business climate helped remove barriers to success for these growing women-owned businesses. Sure, barriers to women’s success still exist, but I think most of them are attitudinal or social in nature, and government has proven inept at changing the hearts and minds of people. In my life, I have worked for both male and female bosses and clients, and I think that most in my generation have fewer issues working with or hiring women on equal terms as men. Personally, I have thrived when working with professional competent women and members of demographic minorities as bosses, colleagues, and clients. I just don’t want the government to intrude in those business relationships. Government intervention or favoring one group over another can create resentment that poisons otherwise working relationships.

I’d be interested in your thoughts on the issue. Email me back to let me know.

A lesson from Morton Blackwell: Personnel is Policy

Morton Blackwell is a well-known conservative activist who runs the Leadership Institute. When I attended his course 20-some years ago, he gave each of us a copy of his printed “Laws of the Public Policy Process,” a printed copy of which hangs in my office. Rule 26 reads, “Personnel is Policy,” and nowhere do we see this better illustrated than the rolling dumpster fire that has been the staff of the Georgia ~~State Ethic~~s Government Transparency and Campaign Finance Commission. From the AJC:

“The ethics commission has become a legal morass and a political football,” said Heath Garrett, a panel member since 2011.

At least some of the commission’s problems, however, are traceable to the commissioners themselves. The board made poor hiring decisions, leading to much of the internal strife that has paralyzed the agency for nearly two years.

They have spent much of their time fighting lawsuits from current and former employees, meeting often in private sessions with their attorneys.

The inaction has come with enormous public cost. The commission’s reputation has been seriously compromised, and the political soap opera that it has become shows no signs going dark. Former executive secretary Holly LaBerge, fired earlier this month, appears to be laying the ground work for a lawsuit against the state. If she sued, she would become the fifth commission employee to sue or seek a settlement.

“I feel like we’ve got to start over on the commission,” said Sen. Josh McKoon, R-Columbus, an ethics reform advocate in the General Assembly. “I don’t think we need just some tweaking around the edges. We need to take it down to the studs and start over.”

“I think the commission’s failures have been in hiring people not up to the job of being executive director,” said Robert Highsmith, a lobbyist and former commission member who now represents politicians before the panel.

Rick Thompson, a former commission executive secretary, said board hiring decisions have been a major reason for the agency’s problems in recent years.

“They have full responsibility for what is happening or not happening at the commission,” Thompson said. “If nothing is happening, that’s on the commission as much as the executive secretary.”

State and Local Government Operations

Macon’s Board of Elections voted 3-2 with two Republicans and and Independent giving thumbs-down, and two Democrats giving thumbs-up to Sunday voting – Macon Telegraph.

Chatham County Board of Registrars voted unanimously to open Sunday voting – Savannah Morning News.

The extra day during the three-week early voting period — Oct. 13 through Oct. 31 — ahead of the Nov. 4 election could allow poll access to people who would otherwise not have time to vote in person, said Colin McRae, the board’s chairman.

“We have a commitment to make the polls accessible to voters as best as we can,” McRae said. “We’re not wedded to the idea of Sunday voting. We’re going to give it a try and afterword we’ll assess how it went.”

McRae estimated the Sunday voting period would cost about $1,500.

Center for Immigration Studies reports that Georgia is number 15 in growth of our immigrant population since 2010 – Atlanta Business Chronicle.

Ten more lane-miles of toll lanes have been proposed for Gwinnett County by Georgia DOT – Gwinnett Daily Post.

The Senate-House Committee on Prescription of Medical Cannabis for Serious Medical Conditions, co-chaired by Senator Renee Unterman, will hear testimony in Lawrenceville Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2014 from 1-3 p.m. at Georgia Gwinnett College in the Large Venue Interactive Space (LVIS) in the GGC Student Center. Georgia Gwinnett college is located at 1000 University Lane in Lawrenceville – Gwinnett Daily Post.

To get a better-view of election day operations, consider volunteering (for money) as a poll attendant – Gwinnett County resident can click here to learn more, other counties check with your local board of elections.

Poll workers must complete a state-required online training course prior to each election and may be required to attend an additional two- to four-hour training session in person depending upon assignment. On Election Day, poll officials must report to their assigned polling place by 6 a.m. and remain until all voters have left and all closing procedures are complete. Poll officials, when possible, are assigned to their home precinct, but may be asked to work at a nearby polling place depending upon vacancies.

The Southern Museum of Civil War & Locomotive History will add a $1.1 million expansion to the Kennesaw-based museum’s research center – Marietta Daily Journal.

Georgia businesses told the EPA that changes to the Clean Water Act rules will have a negative affect on them – Atlanta Business Chronicle.

Spokesmen for farmers, manufacturers, builders and utilities said a new Environmental Protection Agency rule aimed at clarifying which types of waterways should be subject to federal permitting requirements would vastly expand the law’s reach, forcing delays in job-creating projects across the state.
“In a time of economic recovery, we need more clarity and less ambiguity,” Anup Shah, vice president of environmental affairs for the Metro Atlanta Chamber, told a joint meeting of several legislative committees at the Georgia Capitol. “This would put more doubt in developers’ minds and slow down the recovery.”

Georgia Ports helped create 1900 new jobs in the state and spurred the need for more warehouse space, potentially driving new construction – Atlanta Business Chronicle.

Chicago’s profane Mayor Rahm Emanuel claims that O’Hare Airport has displaced Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson as the busiest airport – WABE.

According to the Federal Aviation Administration, O’Hare recorded more than 585,517 takeoffs and landings From Jan. 1 through the end of August, compared to Hartsfield-Jackson’s 582,138.

But Hartsfield-Jackson spokesperson Reese McCraine said the year’s not over yet.

“As we approach the winter months, the airports and cities in the Northeast and Midwest usually have harsher winters than we do here in Atlanta, and that will impact their overall flight operations,” he said.

Box Turtles will be hatching soon – Savannah Morning News.

The eastern box turtle is neither federally nor state-listed in Georgia. However, because it is considered a terrestrial turtle the species is protected from collection and sale.

Freshwater turtles native to Georgia, excepting state-listed species, are not protected and may be legally harvested. According to [Georgia Department of Natural Resource herpetologist John] Jensen, a permit from the Georgia Department of Natural Resources is required for those wishing to possess box turtles for environmental education or scientific study. Jensen added, “although formerly much commoner, this species is almost certainly experiencing a steady decline — associated with habitat loss — in many parts of the state.”

Event Calendar

I support groups fighting against domestic violence and supporting victims. I’m also a fanatical polo enthusiast and would love to attend this event. If you’re considering donating to the Cherokee Family Violence Center but can’t attend the game, I’d love to go in your place. I’ll even email you photos from the game.