USS Constitution, named by President George Washington, was launched in Boston Harbor on October 21, 1791.

During the War of 1812, the Constitution won its enduring nickname “Old Ironsides” after defeating the British warship Guerriére in a furious engagement off the coast of Nova Scotia. Witnesses claimed that the British shots merely bounced off the Constitution‘s sides, as if the ship were made of iron rather than wood. The success of the Constitution against the supposedly invincible Royal Navy provided a tremendous morale boost for the young American republic.

Today, Constitution serves as a museum ship, and has sailed under her own power as recently as 2012. Southern live oak, harvested and milled on St. Simons Island, Georgia, is a primary construction material for Constitution.

Dizzy Gillespie was born on this day in 1917 in Cheraw, South Carolina.

President Warren G. Harding spoke in Alabama on October 21, 1921, and publicly condemned the practice of lynching.

Harding was a progressive Republican politician who advocated full civil rights for African Americans and suffrage for women. He supported the Dyer Anti-lynching Bill in 1920. As a presidential candidate that year, he gained support for his views on women’s suffrage, but faced intense opposition on civil rights for blacks. The 1920s was a period of intense racism in the American South, characterized by frequent lynchings. In fact, the NAACP (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People) reported that, in 1920, lynching claimed, on average, the lives of two African Americans every week.

On October 21, 1976, Billy Carter spoke to an audience in Albany, Georgia, about his brother’s campaign for President.

On his brother Jimmy’s drinking habits, Billy said, “Jimmy used to drink liquor. Now he’s running for president he drinks Scotch, and I’ve never trusted a Scotch drinker.” Billy preferred the alcohol choice of his brother’s running mate, Walter Mondale – “I liked him the best of all the ones who came to Plains. He’s from a small town and he’s a beer drinker.”

Today, Billy Carter’s service station is preserved as a museum in Plains, Georgia.

The Atlanta Braves won the first game of the 1995 World Series on October 21, 1995, as Greg Maddux dominated the Cleveland Indians, allowing only two hits. Native American groups protested the names of both teams.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections

I was listening to GPB’s “Political Rewind” on the radio on Friday (3-4 PM on 88.5 FM in Atlanta), when Beth Schapiro said about one or another of the current crop of ads, “if you’re going to do an ad that doesn’t match the actual facts, do it late in the campaign.” I’m paraphrasing, and I don’t think she was condoning it, rather pointing out something that happens regularly in the terminal stage of campaigns.

To illustrate, we have Michelle Nunn once again using the photo of her with former President George H.W. Bush (41), against his wishes.

Bush already endorsed Nunn’s Republican opponent, David Perdue, and his office is not happy about Nunn defying his wishes again.

Nunn’s new ad is meant to respond to Perdue’s narrative that she is a President Obama lackey. The ad, which began airing Saturday, tries to explain a photo the Perdue camp has used of her standing next to the sitting president. The picture was taken at an Oct. 16, 2009, event that Nunn and Obama attended.

Nunn’s new 30-second ad starts off with the same picture that Perdue uses in his ads. In the ad, Nunn asks, “Have you seen this picture? It’s the one David Perdue has used to try and attack me in this campaign. But what he doesn’t tell you is that it was taken at an event honoring President [H.W.] Bush, who I worked for as CEO of his Points of Life Foundation.”

The ad then shows an image of Nunn next to the 41st president.

Bush spokesman Jim McGrath made clear that the former president did not approve that message.

“Michelle and her team have been clearly, repeatedly and consistently told that President Bush did not want them to use his photo as part of this campaign,” McGrath said in an email to FoxNews.com. “Apparently, the Nunn team feels they can repeatedly disregard the former president’s wishes, which is very disappointing because it’s so disrespectful.”

The National Rifle Association’s affiliated Political Victory Fund has mailed this postcard in support of Governor Nathan Deal and against the Obama-Bloomberg machine and it’s anti-Second Amendment agenda.

Early Voting and Voter Turnout

The Washington Post has a primer on the difference that voter turnout efforts can make in a close election.

More than 100,000 voters have cast ballots in each of these three states: California, Georgia and Michigan.

Methods for turning early voters out to the polls vary by state. Some campaigns rent vans or buses to drive voters to polling places. Democrats have long used Sunday church services to turn out African American voters, a practice they call “souls to the polls.” Every campaign will spend the next two weeks knocking on as many doors as possible.

The public records showing who has voted and who hasn’t help campaigns focus on turning out voters most likely to back their candidates. Campaigns and party committees have spent months, and tens of millions of dollars, identifying their supporters. Once those supporters vote, the campaigns can cross them off the target list and move on to the next potential voter.

McDonald, the University of Florida political scientist, said the focus on getting people to the polls amounted to a grand experiment, one academics have been theorizing about for years. Democrats are working to change the electorate through a concerted focus on voter mobilization, and Republicans are aiming to make up in an area where they’ve fallen behind.

“This is what the election is going to come down to: Can Democrats overcome the turnout deficits they have among their key constituencies — young people, poor people, minorities,” McDonald said. “This is a huge experiment. This is something that political scientists and parties have been doing experiments on, voter mobilization, for the last decade. And this is being done on a big scale.”

WaPo also profiled the Georgia Republican Party’s efforts to mobilize voters in this year’s elections.

A clutch of volunteers is handwriting postcard messages to would-be voters — one of the most intimate ways to reach supporters. But he is more intrigued by the other group — young, old, white and black — using new phones that automatically dial numbers from a database and can leave prerecorded voice mails for people who don’t pick up. Another group is out in the neighborhood using a phone app that feeds back information to a database that will keep county and state party officials updated on potential voters.

“We’ve never had anything like this going before,” [Cobb County Republican Party Chair Joe] Dendy said.

Republicans here and across the country are now emulating the tech-driven, national-style ground game long dominated by Democrats. Party officials want to use the new methods to draw out voters to support congressional and gubernatorial candidates this year and then prepare to help the party’s presidential nominee during the 2016 election.

The GOP efforts here in Cobb County — a Republican stronghold that helped elect Newt Gingrich to Congress — is the end result of Victory 365, a project launched after Republicans lost the presidential race in 2012. Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus initiated a top-to-bottom review of party operations, messaging and fundraising. In a recent speech, he conceded that the RNC “had become a U-Haul trailer of cash for a presidential nominee” that would deploy manpower and technology only around Labor Day.

In Georgia and other key states, the RNC partnered with state party operations to deploy paid staffers and millions of dollars in new databases, apps, Web sites and phone systems. In Cobb County, Dendy has essentially ceded day-to-day ground operations to Ashley Williams, 24, a paid GOP staffer helping organize volunteers. She is the kind of young, energetic party staffer that Democrats regularly deploy into a key state more than a year before an election.

“A vote for Michelle Nunn is a vote for Harry Reid,” Maynard said between calls, referring to the Senate majority leader. “That’s the real issue. He’s got 370 bills tied up in the Senate that came over from the House. And Nunn might be the second coming, but you don’t vote for her and get a Republican Senate, and there are a lot of things that need to happen.”

In addition to the retrofitted GOP operations, Republicans benefit from another powerful organization working to turn out conservative voters: the Faith and Freedom Coalition.

From a suburban office building in Duluth, Ga., founder Ralph Reed — the former head of the Christian Coalition and a onetime candidate for Georgia lieutenant governor — oversees a multimillion-dollar operation that recently started distributing 1 million voter guides to churches across Georgia. The placards display the faces of Perdue and Nunn and list where they stand on issues such as same-sex marriage, abortion and the Affordable Care Act. An additional 850,000 mailers with similar information will be sent to the homes of evangelical Christians, Reed said. Many of those households will receive at least two phone calls from Reed’s organization.

Huffington Post takes a quick whack at analyzing early voting in Georgia.

The demographic composition of the early vote changed dramatically. Georgia does not have party registration, so I analyze race, which is recorded on the state’s voter registration file. Whereas Whites were 78% of voters who cast mail ballots, they were 66% of those who voted in-person early. Whites are now 69% of early voters by both voting methods. (The voter file I have is post-2012, so I am missing race for new registrants since 2012, I suspect that these new registrants are less likely to be White, so these statistics most likely under-estimate the non-White participation.)

This is a typical pattern for states that have mixed early voting methods. Voters tend to prefer to vote an in-person vote, particularly, Democrats or groups that constitute their base.

We can also see some evidence in support of the DSCC’s Iowa claim. Among the 20% of Georgia early voters without a record of voting in the 2010 election, Whites are 64%, compared to 70% with a 2010 vote history.

The Los Angeles Times reports that Hispanic and Latino enthusiasm for Democratic candidates may be waning.

As Democrats struggle to hold the Senate, limit their losses in the House and maybe gain a few governor seats Nov. 4, they are counting on strong support from Latino voters, a rapidly growing part of the electorate and a big reason states like California, Nevada and Colorado have gone from red to blue in their presidential preferences.

But Latino voting tends to drop in midterm elections and, as Trujillo’s sentiment suggests, that may prove all the more so next month, given deep frustration with the president.

He drew a record Latino turnout in 2012, but since then has repeatedly deferred action after pledging to push through comprehensive changes in immigration law, acting without Congress if necessary. For many, that failing seems to trump anything positive Obama has accomplished.

“All the air has been let out,” said Matt Barreto, a University of Washington political scientist who conducts extensive polling among Latinos nationwide.

His research suggests Latino voters, who typically vote heavily Democratic, could make the difference for the party in more than three dozen races across the country, including House contests in San Diego, Sacramento and Ventura County, gubernatorial races in Arizona, Florida and Illinois, and contests for governor and U.S. Senate in Colorado as well as Georgia.

Nationally, opinion polls show Obama’s approval among Latinos slipping throughout his second term. Political and community leaders have also grown increasingly critical, especially since the president broke his promise to act on immigration reform by summer’s end. Advocates had hoped, among other changes, he would ease the record number of deportations.

Republicans are hardly ceding the Latino vote. The party has spent more than a year building its outreach effort, with a focus on 10 states, including California, Arizona, Colorado and Florida, where GOP strategists believe they can boost turnout of Latino supporters, especially social conservatives and small-business owners.

Part of the problem in recent years has been a failure to engage early, said Jennifer Sevilla Korn, deputy political director at Republican national headquarters and a veteran of President George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign, which drew strong Latino backing.

By showing up at community events — more than 1,400 in the last year, by her count — instead of just dropping by at election time, GOP candidates and their supporters “can say what the Republican message really is” and not let Democrats’ harsh portrayal go unchallenged. “We need to show the Hispanic community we absolutely care about immigrants,” said Korn, “and want to support immigration reform that works for both sides.”

Generic ballot poll questions, which ask whether voters prefer a Republican or Democratic candidate (or about preferences for party control of Congress) are trending toward Republicans, according to the PBS NewsHour.

Republicans have a 49-44 percent advantage on who Americans want to control Congress among likely voters in a new NBC/WSJ/Annenberg poll. They have a 2-point edge 45-43 percent among registered voters. The Wall Street Journal: “The survey is yet more evidence that Democratic voters are tuning out the midterms. Democrats carried a 10-point lead among low-interest voters, whom the party is trying to reach and motivate with vigorous turnout operations across the country. Republicans carried a 10-point lead in the new survey among voters who said they were highly interested in the election.” Generic ballot numbers can be tough to read, but generally when Republicans lead, that can spell big gains.

Election models are also trending Republican, according to the Washington Post’s The Fix column,

3. Georgia: Election Lab (63 percent GOP win), FiveThirtyEight (65 percent GOP win), LEO (63 percent GOP win).

The most interesting of that quartet is Georgia where Democrat Michelle Nunn’s chances against businessman David Perdue (R) have improved markedly over recent weeks — thanks in large part to revelations about Perdue’s comments on outsourcing and polling that shows the open seat race very, very close. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee diverted several million dollars from Kentucky to Georgia last week, another sign of Nunn’s increased competitiveness. The problem for Nunn (and Democrats more broadly) is that if she can’t get to 50 percent on Nov. 4 — which looks unlikely given the presence of a third party candidate — there will be a runoff on Jan. 6. That runoff electorate will likely favor Perdue.

The Nunn campaign and national Democrats are pushing a message that Michelle Nunn has a chance in Georgia, in the hopes of driving more out-of-state money here. Yesterday, Roll Call suggested that the real question in Georgia is not whether Nunn comes in first on November 4, but whether she can get over 50% that day.

The competitive open-seat Senate race in Georgia has become an unwanted liability for Republicans’ chances of winning a majority, but Democrat Michelle Nunn still has a perilous path to win a majority of the vote on Nov. 4.

“The numbers are strong,” said state Rep. Stacey Abrams, who recently led a statewide voter registration drive aimed at young minorities. “It’s certainly all about turnout, which is a generic trope, but real. If we can turn out the voters, she can win in November. But we have to be prepared for any eventuality, and I think the campaign is prepared for that.”

The race began moving in Nunn’s direction when Perdue said he was “proud” of his business record, which included outsourcing jobs. The comments came in reaction to the unearthing of a 2005 deposition, during which Perdue said he spent “most of my career” outsourcing.

“There is no better way to pick up blue-collar white voters than with outsourcing, and he walked right into it,” one Democratic operative said.

Spotting an opportunity, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee dumped $1 million into TV time in Atlanta, where the booming exurbs will likely decide the race.

Tharon Johnson, an Atlanta-based Democratic consultant and the national southern regional director for President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign, said that should be enough to get Nunn over the top.

“The Nunn campaign has focused heavily on presenting a message that resonates with women and moderate Republicans in this state, while at the same time pointing out David Perdue’s failed record,” he said.

In a briefing with reporters last week, Rob Collins, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, conceded the race had tightened but said the concept of Nunn winning outright on Nov. 4 was “a bridge too far.” Doing so would mean Republicans must pick up at least seven Democrat-held seats to win the majority — an achievable goal, but certainly not preferable.

The next vital step for Democrats is to get out the vote, and the party is taking advantage of Sunday voting. Fulton County held the first Sunday voting day over the weekend, during which churches bused voters to early voting polling places after their worship services. Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta dubbed its effort “Souls to the Polls!”

Sunday voting will continue this weekend in several more counties, including DeKalb in metro Atlanta, which is 55 percent African-American.

Vote “Yes” on Amendment B

The Marietta Daily Journal discusses the reasons for Amendment B on the General Election Ballot. I personally will vote “Yes” on Amendment B and urge you to do the same.

Joseph Frazier of Marietta, the chairman of the Brain and Spinal Injury Trust Fund Commission, said people turn to his organization as a “last resort.”

The commission awards up to $15,000 to Georgians who have experienced brain or spinal cord injuries. It helps between eight to 20 people a month, and about 50 to 75 people are on a waiting list, Frazier said.

“So we’re getting farther and farther behind,” Frazier said. “The need is remarkable, and $15,000 is never going to cover what it takes for a lifelong disability like this.”

The money comes from a fee charged to people who either plead guilty to or are convicted of DUI.

Voters are being asked to extend the surcharge to those who are found guilty of reckless driving.

On the Nov. 4 ballot, Georgia residents will answer yes or no to the following question, called Amendment B: “Shall the Constitution of Georgia be amended to allow additional reckless driving penalties or fees to be added to the Brain and Spinal Injury Trust Fund to pay for care and rehabilitative services for Georgia citizens who have survived neurotrauma with head or spinal cord injuries?”

Frazier, a quadriplegic, said voters need to mark “yes.”

He made clear the fee is not a tax.

“Nobody pays anything except the offender, who often is the cause of these lifelong disabilities,” he said.

Frazier said DUI convictions have decreased in Georgia in recent years for many reasons, including the economy and educational efforts to keep dangerous drivers off the road.

“We know that a lot of DUIs are being pleaded down to reckless driving and there’s lots of administrative and financial reasons why,” Frazier said. “One individual might get a DUI or be accused of a DUI and they might be the only breadwinner or they might be the only vehicle driver in the household, and if that one person is the only person who is earning a paycheck … if they were convicted of a DUI or pled guilty to a DUI, then that household could end up in dire straits financially.”

He said those who plead down to reckless driving will wind up with more affordable fines and/or are sentenced to community service.

Rep. Rich Golick (R-Smyrna), who chairs the House Judiciary Non-Civil Committee that considered the amendment, said the drop in the number of DUIs to reckless driving convictions is causing the commission to “lose out” on funding.

He said he hopes the amendment will be passed by voters.

“Reckless driving is certainly a threat to public safety as is DUI,” Golick said. “When you combine that with the fact the funding would occur but for the reducing of the DUI charge to reckless driving, it makes sense to include reckless driving when assessing a fine to benefit the Brain and Spinal Injury Trust Fund.”

Events Calendar

DeKalb County GOP: Take The Senate Tuesday

October 21 @ 5:00 PM – 9:00 PM

DeKalb GOP HQ, 1532 Dunwoody Village Parkway, Dunwoody, GA 30338

+ Google Map

GATHER AT THE DeKalb GOP HQ to make phone calls for VICTORY. HELP US FIRE HARRY …

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for October 21, 2014