On this date in 1977, heavy floodwaters overcame an earthen dam on the campus of Toccoa Falls Bible College, sending a wall of water through campus and killing 39.

Runoff Elections

In Senate District 14, Bruce Thompson and Matt Laughridge are headed to a runoff election on December 3, 2013. Thompson tool 33.39% (2403 votes) to Laughridge’s 25.59% (1840 votes)

We will also see a runoff in House District 104, where Chuck Efstration led with 38.73% (1575 votes) to Teresa Cantrell with 26.14% (1063 votes).

The final legislative runoff will be in House District 127 in Richmond and Jefferson Counties, where first-place finisher Brian Prince 44.61% (1468) will meet second-place Diane Evans 29.57% (973 votes). The widow of the late-Rep. Quincy Murphy whose death led to the special election did not earn a spot in the runoff.

In Johns Creek, incumbent City Council Member Karen Richardson, who was a member of the inaugural Council, took second-place, forcing erstwhile “Real Housewife of Atlanta” Cori Davenport into a runoff.

In Albany, City Commissioner Ivey Hines finished in first place with a 21-vote lead over Bobby Ray Coleman, but only garnered 46% to head into a runoff.

In the Statesboro Mayoral election, a runoff will be held between Jan Moore who carried 40 percent (630 votes) and Jonathan McCollar who took 36 percent (563 votes).

Carrollton Board of Education Ward 2 will host a runoff election between April Brewer Harris with 31.6% (216 votes) and Katie Doyle Williams with 26.5% (181 votes).

Warner Robins will host two runoff elections. For Mayor, Randy Toms 25% (1626 votes) and Joe Musselwhite 23% (1511 votes) enter the Thunder Dome runoff. In Council District 1, current and outgoing Mayor Chuck Shaheen narrowly missed avoiding a runoff with 49.7% (3162 votes), against second-place finisher Mike Daley with 28.5% (1810 votes).

1. National money seeks opportunity – Out-of-state contributions, SuperPACs and other groups were a large part of the Democratic spending mix that resulted in a 4:1 dollar advantage on television while the Republican National Committee spent $3 million in the Commonwealth, a third of what it spent in 2009. It was the opportunity for a win that drew the money in, and Georgia will present an inviting target next year, with the next Democratic party shiny thing Michelle Nunn on the Senate ballot and possibly a Carter candidacy for Governor.

After the shutdown, Larry Sabato moved two Senate race toss-ups back to Leans Democratic, and downgraded GOP chances in Georgia from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.

The old rules on turnout might not apply any more – Historically, black turnout ebbs in non-Presidential year General Elections in Georgia. In 2012, blacks “overperformed” in the presidential election, casting 13% of ballots nationally, while composing 12% of the population. From a Washington Post analysis:

A Census Bureau report released in May showed that the rate of African American voters in the 2012 presidential election surpassed that of whites for the first time in history. “About two in three eligible blacks (66.2 percent) voted in the 2012 presidential election, higher than the 64.1 percent of non-Hispanic whites who did so,” the study showed. But the Census revealed another noteworthy nugget about black voters.

Many political observers have assumed that black turnout will again recede without President Obama on the ballot in 2014. But Virginia may show differently. Black turnout rose to 20% of voters in 2013 from 16% in 2009 during the last Gubernatorial balloting. And that 20% of the electorate represented by blacks is only a single point behind the 21% of the electorate in 2012.

Because historically black voters favor Democratic candidates by 90% or more, every additional black voter in 2014 nearly equals an additional Democratic vote. Remember last month, we noted that a number of Obama campaign alumni are starting a “nonpartisan” group to counter GOP Senate candidates,

Trust 2014 isn’t trying to sway the votes of Republicans or even all of the independents, just enough swing voters to tip an election.

“We’re trying to influence 5, 6, 7 percent of the vote,” Smith said.

And Organizing for Action, the successor to the Obama campaign is holding organizational meetings from Dalton to Savannah, and we’re looking at a finely-tuned voter turnout machine ramping up for the 2014 General Election.

Those two developments in the Georgia Senate race suggest to me that we’re facing a harder-fought battle in 2014 than I have been anticipating.

GAGOP in SOWEGA

The Georgia Republican Party is opening its first regional office today at noon in Albany (2516 Dawson Road, Suite D).

“The Regional Headquarters will serve as hubs for Republican clubs, organizations, and individuals who are interested in growing the Party, electing like-minded candidates, and promoting conservative values in Georgia,” said Southwest Regional Director Karen Kemp.  “The GAGOP is serious about investing in Southwest Georgia and the opening of this headquarters is the first step towards building a southern stronghold that can withstand the test of time.”

The GAGOP Regional Headquarters will be staffed indefinitely by full-time Regional Directors, who will spearhead Voter Registration efforts, grassroots initiatives, and community-based projects.