Georgia Politics, Campaigns & Elections for April 15, 2013

Decline of Competitive Congressional Districts

The number of competitive Congressional districts nationally has declined 45% from 164 swing seats in 1998 to 90 swing seats today, according to a NationalJournal.com analysis.

How did we get here as a country? Debates rage at political-science conferences: Are voters aligning in like-minded areas, or is blatant partisan gerrymandering to blame? Our newest index points mostly to the former, which has in turn amplified the power of the latter. In 2011 and 2012, redistricting diminished the number of swing seats from 103 to 99. But when we factored in the 2012 election results, the count fell more sharply, from 99 to 90.

In fact, setting aside redistricting, we found that 76 percent of Democratic-held House seats had grown even more Democratic in the past four years and 60 percent of GOP-held seats had grown even more Republican. Some districts swung dramatically, mostly along racial lines. Republican Rep. Hal Rogers’s 96 percent white district in eastern Kentucky jumped from R+16 to R+25, and Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez’s 82 percent nonwhite district in Orange County, Calif., moved from D+3 to D+9.

There’s no question this phenomenon has benefited Republicans. Observing Democrats trying to win a House majority today is akin to watching a soccer team play a comparably skilled opponent with the field slanted 25 degrees against them. Thanks to the concentrated nature of the Democratic vote, Republicans have always occupied at least two dozen more solidly partisan districts than Democrats. But the rise in ironclad districts forces Democrats to win a near-impossible share of what’s left just to even the score.

For Democrats, the additional bad news is that the range of what ought to be called a true swing seat might be shrinking. In 1998, Democrats held 15 of the 53 districts rated between R+2 and R+5, and Republicans held nine of 43 districts rated between D+2 and D+5. In other words, candidates on the wrong side of the “lean” of these “leaning” districts used to win a quarter of the time. But in 2013, Democrats hold just four of the 36 districts between R+2 and R+5, and Republicans hold zero of the 19 seats between D+2 and D+5—just a 7 percent crossover success rate.

One of those partisan-leaning seats held by the “wrong” party continues to be Georgia’s 12th Congressional District, rated “R+9” by Cook Political Report and held by Democratic Congressman John Barrow. That reflects the strength of Republican Presidential nominees in the district in 2008 and 2012, and incidentally, mirrors the partisanship-level of Republican Congressman Jack Kingston’s 1st Congressional District, also rated “R+9”.

The next highest ranking of “R+14” is shared by Cong. Tom Price’s Sixth District, Cong. Rob Woodall’s Seventh, and Cong. Paul Broun’s Tenth District. The most-heavily Republican district in the state is the Ninth District held by Cong. Doug Collins at “R+32” followed closely by the Fourteenth District held by Rep. Tom Graves.

Walter Jones of Morris News writes that most Georgia State House members were rated as low on a conservatism scale by Elect the Right Candidate, a libertarian-oriented website.

Georgia voters show a similar pattern of polarization between Republican and Democrat that is seen in the national numbers.

Even though the leaders aren’t conservative enough for Elect the Right Candidate, they’re still too conservative for a large number of Georgians, according to pollster Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage.

He conducted a survey after the session and found that voters split on the proposed gun bill, 40 percent for and 43 percent against. Among Republicans, 61 percent liked the measure.

Not surprisingly, more than two-thirds of Democrats opposed it, but the challenge for GOP leaders is that a plurality of independents also opposed it, 46 percent against to just 39 percent in favor.

Deal’s approval was also 67 percent among Republican primary voters but just 37 percent among independents.

In other words, the governor’s numbers match almost exactly those of the gun bill.

“Party identification in Georgia is moving away from the Republicans and Democrats and toward independent voters,” he said. “Those voters have taken a rather substantial turn away from the GOP in the last six to 12 months. In essence, we are seeing Georgia catching up to national trends, and that means Republicans must tread softly or risk being in very close statewide contests in the future.”

As long as there are enough Republicans, Deal and other statewide incumbents can feel secure about re-election. However, the apparent link between them and the most controversial bills in the legislature means they have reason to worry about Towery’s warning, prompting them to anger the tea party crowd.

Come on in, boys, the water is fine!

Residents of the Gillsville area in Hall County need not fear being blocked from a river baptism by Georgia DOT work on the bridge over Candler Creek.

The Georgia Department of Transportation has found that the Ga. 52/Ga. 323 bridge near Gillsville has had a higher calling than just carrying motorists from one side of Candler Creek to the other.

After a bridge replacement project began in May, District Engineer Bayne Smith got a call from Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle’s office asking whether people wanting to get baptized in the creek would still have access.

“That’s something we’re actually looking at,” Smith said during a March DOT forum at the University of North Georgia-Gainesville. “I think (the issue) came up during the environmental process.”

In a phone interview last week, Cagle reaffirmed that concern.

“That part of the county is where most of my family is from,” he said. “Growing up, I remember going there for baptismal services.”

“It’s just a tradition in the East Hall community for so many families. I think it’s very important to continue that tradition.”

Gwinnett County residents are needed for the Chattahoochee, Ocmulgee and Oconee advisory councils to the Metropolitan North Georgia Water Planning District.

Officials are seeking applicants who are involved in environmental, business, real estate, recreation, neighborhood, development, agriculture, utility, academic, water resources or other interests.

Individuals must reside within the river basin of the council for which they apply, a press release said. Members serve two-year terms and may be reappointed for additional terms. Involvement includes attendance at regular quarterly meetings but may also include special meetings as needed to provide input on Metro Water District activities and actions.

The application, which is due May 17, for Basin Advisory Council membership is available on the Metro Water District’s website, www.northgeorgiawater.org.

Uranium and radium levels in well water near Juliette, Georgia appear to be naturally-occuring and unrelated to a nearby coal-fired power plant.

New water tests on Juliette-area wells appear to support the likelihood that uranium and radium contamination there is not related to a nearby power plant.

State officials have long said the well pollution is probably caused by naturally occurring uranium in the underground rock of Georgia’s Piedmont. Radium is formed by the decay of uranium, a radioactive metal.

Dozens of Juliette residents have found unsafe levels of these elements in their well water or high radon levels (caused by the underground radium) in the air of their homes.

In Milledgeville, the Fifth Annual Bible Reading Marathon is underway through April 17th.

Local churches and individuals will participate by starting to read in Genesis 1, the first book of the Bible, and then reading publicly and continuously in 15-minutes segments through the last chapter of the Book of Revelation, the final book of the Bible, in preparation for the 62nd annual National Day of Prayer on May 2.

“I believe the National Day of Prayer is significant not only on a grand level but locally too,” Larson said. “This is a time for us as a community to come together and proclaim His Word as well as pray for our county, our city and the nation.”

The entire Marathon will take 90 hours to complete.

Above, the Historic Baldwin County Courthouse, and below, the Old Georgia Governor’s Mansion in Milledgeville, Ga.

Below is the old State House chamber on the second floor of the Old Georgia Capitol building in Milledgeville.And the exterior of the Old Capitol.

Power Shorts

State Rep. Bruce Williamson addressed the 2013 class of Republican Leadership for Georgia in Milledgeville this weekend, and toured Georgia Power’s Plant Branch, a coal-fired electric generation plant due to be closed in 2014 due to increased costs attributable to the Obama Administration’s EPA. The retirement of Plant Branch will have a major impact on the surrounding community.

Closing the power plant will put a severe crimp in the financing of local government for Putnam County. Plant Branch produces millions of dollars in sales taxes for the county school system, county government and Eatonton city government.

The total sales tax the company pays is “a hard number to nail down,” Paul Van Haute, county manager, said.

In addition, he said, the company pays “approximately $1 million in property tax” on Plant Branch. “It’s about one-seventh of our property tax,” he said.

“This, to me, is the time when we have to seriously – and I mean seriously – look to eliminating all but essential government services in the county.

“Otherwise, we may be looking at tax increases the like of which we have not seen before,” Webster wrote in an email.

He noted the only way the local governments have to raise money is through the property tax.

“The real impact to the property owners is that all three county entities (city, schools and county) will be raising taxes at the same time, making it a triple threat (to coin an old football term),” Webster said.

Completion of a new coal-fired plant in Washington County is threatened by the EPA’s failure to adopt final rules on emissions.

The failure of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to finalize the nation’s first proposed carbon dioxide emission limits for new power plants by a Saturday deadline shifted little between the parties that are warring over a proposed power plant in Washington County.

Environmental opponents of the project say new carbon dioxide rules will apply to Plant Washington, and they are pondering a lawsuit to push the point. They also say the coal-fired plant is a financial gamble, especially under those green rules.

But the plant’s developer signed key contracts on April 12 to purchase and erect a boiler, which he said means Plant Washington remains in compliance with a certain part of the rule that allows them to bypass any new carbon dioxide limits.

“The proposed rule is still the proposed rule until the final rule comes out, … and so we’re operating under the proposed rule and we are a transitional source,” said Dean Alford, president and CEO of Allied Energy Services, the developer engaged by Power4Georgians, as well as its spokesman. Power4Georgians plans an 850-megawatt power plant outside Sandersville in east central Georgia.

A so-called “transitional source” is a plant that had its permits issued and construction started in time to be exempted from proposed caps on carbon dioxide emissions per unit of power produced. Those limits are expected to make new coal-fired power plants more expensive. The limits do not apply to existing plants or those substantially under way by April 13.

But Southern Environmental Law Center attorney John Suttles said he thinks calling Plant Washington a transitional source is out of line with how the EPA has interpreted the rule before. The center is considering a legal challenge based in part on what it says is a federal Clean Air Act permit that’s too new to be fit into the exemption.

“The fact is Plant Washington cannot meet all of the legal requirements that will apply to the plant,” Suttles said.

Though nobody now knows what the final carbon dioxide rule will be, “it would be an extremely risky and perhaps even a reckless gamble for any developer to make a bet that the EPA will never finalize these standards,” said Seth Gunning, conservation organizer with the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign in Georgia. He said the federal Clean Air Act obligates the EPA to set up greenhouse gas emission rules.

Utility investors are accustomed to large, long-term, reliable investments with a 30-year cost recovery — fossil fuel plants, basically. The cost of those investments, along with investments in grid maintenance and reliability, are spread by utilities across all ratepayers in a service area.

What happens if a bunch of those ratepayers start reducing their demand or opting out of the grid entirely? Well, the same investments must now be spread over a smaller group of ratepayers. In other words: higher rates for those who haven’t switched to solar.

Did you follow that? As ratepayers opt for solar panels (and other distributed energy resources like micro-turbines, batteries, smart appliances, etc.), it raises costs on other ratepayers and hurts the utility’s credit rating. As rates rise on other ratepayers, the attractiveness of solar increases, so more opt for it. Thus costs on remaining ratepayers are even further increased, the utility’s credit even further damaged.

Assuming a decline in load, and possibly customers served, of 10 percent due to DER [“distributed energy resources”] with full subsidization of DER participants, the average impact on base electricity prices for non-DER participants will be a 20 percent or more increase in rates, and the ongoing rate of growth in electricity prices will double for non-DER participants (before accounting for the impact of the increased cost of serving distributed resources).

So rates would rise by 20 percent for those without solar panels. Can you imagine the political *storm that would create? (There are reasons to think EEI is exaggerating this effect, but we’ll get into that in the next post.)

If nothing is done to check these trends, the U.S. electric utility as we know it could be utterly upended. The report compares utilities’ possible future to the experience of the airlines during deregulation or to the big monopoly phone companies when faced with upstart cellular technologies.

Fort Benning Team wins Best Ranger Competition

The fourth time was the charm for Santiago as he and first-time partner Sgt. 1st Class Timothy Briggs won the 30th annual competition.

Both are members of Fort Benning’s Ranger Training Brigade.

Sgt. 1st Class John M. Gendron and Sgt. 1st Class Joshua Horsager, a team from the 75th Ranger Regiment at Fort Benning, finished second.

In third place was the team of Sgt. 1st Class Samuel Leritz and Staff Sgt. Christopher Brousard, also from the 75th Ranger Regiment.