Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for April 4, 2014

President William Henry Harrison died in office on April 4, 1841, a month after his inauguration.

At the inauguration of America’s first Whig president, on March 4, 1841, a bitterly cold day, Harrison declined to wear a jacket or hat, made a two-hour speech, and attended three inauguration balls. Soon afterward, he developed pneumonia. On April 4, President Harrison died in Washington, and Vice President John Tyler ascended to the presidency, becoming the first individual in U.S. history to reach the office through the death of a president.

The Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr. was shot in Memphis, Tennessee on April 4, 1968, where he was supporting a protest of working conditions by sanitation workers. Jame Earl Ray would later be arrested and plead guilty to the assassination.

On April 4, 1974, Hank Aaron hit home run 714, tying Babe Ruth’s record.

On April 4, 1988, the Tiger Swallowtail Butterfly was recognized as the official state butterfly of Georgia.

The Atlanta Braves played their first game in Turner Field on April 4, 1997, defeating the Chicago Cubs 5-4. Denny Neagle started on the mound for the Braves and Mark Wohlers earned a save. Atlanta’s Michael Tucker hit the first homerun in the new stadium.

Georgia Campaigns and Elections

Jack Kingston released a new ad yesterday titled, “Call Me Maybe,” featuring a voiceover by a very talented impersonator of President Barack Obama.

David Perdue also released a new ad called, “Bring”.

At the time of writing, Kingston’s new ad had been viewed 613 times to 504 for Perdue’s. That probably doesn’t mean much, but measurable metrics are one way to judge how campaigns are doing.

Which ad do you think is better or more effective?

Watching the first ad from Democratic candidate Michelle Nunn, you could believe that she too is running for the Republican nomination for Senate.

President George H.W. Bush? Check.
Candidate talking to military veteran? Check.
Church in the background? Check.
The word, “Democrat” or “Democratic”? Nope.
President Obama? No.
Obamacare? No.

It’s those last two points that ironically show that she’s running from President Obama and Obamacare and for the Democratic nomination. Any GOP ad would include a denunciation of at least one of those.

How bad was Perdue’s gaffe?

For months, the narrative about the U.S. Senate race has been that Georgia Republicans might nominate someone like Phil Gingrey or Paul Broun who might make an epic gaffe and hand victory to the Democrats. But to the surprise of many, it was David Perdue who caught the first case of foot-in-mount disease. And the national media are pouncing on it. From US News & World Reports yesterday:

a video has emerged showing Perdue slighting one of his opponents who only has a high school degree and the rest of the primary field for never having lived overseas – two comments that drip of elitism and will undoubtedly open him up for immediate attacks and greater scrutiny.

Speaking to a county GOP group back in January, Perdue is recorded on video saying, “There’s a high school graduate in this race, OK? I’m sorry, but these issues are so much broader, so complex. There’s only one candidate in this race that’s ever lived outside of the U.S.”

“It has really steamed a significant portion of activists,” says Todd Rehm, a Republican consultant and author of the GaPundit.com blog, who rendered it “David Perdue’s 47 Percent Moment” on his site. “The issue may not be one just for the primary election … this could be a major issue in the general election.”

According to U.S. Census data, only 28 percent of Georgians hold college degrees. In 2008, those without a college degree accounted for 56 percent of the general election vote there.

And not only did it give a fresh jolt of inspiration to many of Karen Handel’s grassroots supporters, it also moved Congressman Lynn Westmoreland (R-Senoia) to address Perdue’s gaffe,

Rep. Lynn Westmoreland on Thursday knocked down Georgia Senate candidate David Perdue’s assertion that his opponent is not qualified to run for the Senate because she does not have a college education.

Westmoreland, who himself never graduated from college, said Perdue’s comments about former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel are “stupid.” He is a five-term Georgia Republican and has yet to endorse a candidate in the race, which includes three of his House colleagues, Reps. Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey and Jack Kingston. He noted that Perdue’s comment is unlikely to affect his choice.

Westmoreland noted that Perdue’s comment is unlikely to affect his choice.

“It’s not going to affect it. This just shows the different personalities,” he said. “I think it’s stupid. I’m sure that’s the way he feels, but I feel like you don’t have to be a college degree to be good at whatever you want to do. It’s never hindered me.”

So, 56 percent of the general election voters attained a formal education level less than a college degree. But aren’t those folks all going to vote Democratic anyway? Not so much.

University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato wrote in 2012, “… The higher the education level, the more likely they are to vote Democratic.”

So, we decided to look at the 2008 General Election Exit Polls to check out what kind of an effect this might have in Georgia. There are no Georgia exit polls available from 2010 or 2012 that we have found. In the Presidential Race, we see that, indeed, 56% of voters then had less than a college degree.

But more of a problem for Republicans is that middle bracket comprising voters with a high school degree only or some college but no diploma. That was a battleground in 2008. John McCain carried High School Graduates by ten points, contributing a net 2.1 points to his 52.2 percent margin over Obama. Notably, McCain carried college graduates in Georgia by a 13-point margin, but nationally, college grads gave Obama an 8-point lead.

But the problem becomes more serious when we look at the education-level breakdown of the United States Senate race between Saxby Chambliss (R)(i) and Jim Martin (D), in which Chambliss carried only 49.8 percent of the vote and was forced into a runoff.

McCain’s lead among high school graduates evaporated in Chambliss’s race, and the GOP Senate nominee gave back 1.7 bottom line points for this, though he gained some back from voters with some college leading to a net loss of 1.14 bottom line points. Had Chambliss carried votes of high school grads and those with some college at the same level that John McCain did, he could have avoided a risky runoff.

So if demographics this year are like they were in 2008, those voters whom Perdue arguably disparaged will have the margin of victory in their hands. Michelle Nunn running against Perdue will hammer this episode over and over and the Democratic Party’s lead in voter targeting will allow them to deliver the message exactly where it hurts Republicans the most. If Democrats are able to force a runoff this year, it will be an extended slog, due to the same changes that pushed Georgia’s primary earlier than ever this year, with the general election runoff scheduled for January 6, 2015. National money will pour into Georgia like the winter rains, and voter identification and turnout, a Democratic strong suit if the Obama election campaign model is used, will be the keys to victory.

Do we want to risk the balance of power in the United States Senate on a January runoff?

The other important point this illustrates cuts both ways for Democrats and Republicans alike. It’s not the veteran politicians like Paul Broun or Phil Gingrey who present the highest risk of making an impromptu gaffe. It’s the untested candidates. David Perdue has had his unscripted moment, and we sincerely hope it is his last. But Michelle Nunn is also liable to fall into that trap, though the national media are unlikely to pile on in the same way as with a Republican. I guess that’s why the Democratic nomination race has become a game of “Where’s Michelle.”

This is as good a time as I can find in today’s edition to drop a quote by the AJC’s liberal columnist Jay Bookman. While I disagree with him on many things, this sums up so much about politics:

It’s like they say in the military: Amateurs talk strategy, the professionals talk logistics.

The other thing that differentiates professionals from amateurs is that pros talk numbers.

May is National Drug Court Month

The National Association of Drug Court Professionals recognizes May as National Drug Court Month, celebrating 25 years of drug courts as an alternative to traditional sentencing. Here are some bullet points they’d like to raise:

• Over the past 25 years Drug Courts have served over 1.3 million seriously addicted people.

• There are now over 2,800 Drug Courts nationwide. Drug Courts are located in every U.S. state and territory, as well as 23 other countries.

• Drug Courts now serve 142,000 seriously addicted, prison-bound individuals a year.

• Drug Courts annually refer more people to treatment than any other system in America.

• Drug Courts save money, cut crime and serve veterans in need of substance abuse and mental health treatment.

• Drug Courts are a critical component of criminal justice reform.

• Drug Courts are the nation’s most successful criminal justice program.

Deal said those special courts will save the state money through lower recidivism, but they will also save lives and families. Deal’s son, Jason, is a superior court judge in Hall and Dawson counties and oversees  drug courts there. Deal said he and his wife, Sandra, who was also at the bill signing, had attended the program’s graduation ceremonies.

“To listen to the stories, to the lives that have been changed, the families who have been reunited and lives that have, quite frankly, been cast aside by the system that was in place, had a tremendous emotional effect on me,” Deal said as he fought back tears.