Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for November 4, 2021

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Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for November 4, 2021

Alexander Stephens was sworn-in as Governor of Georgia on November 4, 1882; Stephens had earlier been elected Vice-President of the Confederate States of America.

Howard Carter found an entrance to the tomb of King Tutankhamen on November 4, 1922.

On November 4, 1932 Georgia Governor Richard B. Russell, Jr. campaigned on behalf of Democratic candidate for President Franklin D. Roosevelt.

On November 4, 1980, Republican Ronald Reagan was elected President, winning 489 electoral votes to 49 for incumbent Jimmy Carter.

Note on the electoral map in that clip, states that Reagan won were colored blue, and Georgia was a red state, going for Jimmy Carter.

On November 4, 2008, Barack Obama was elected President, becoming the first African-American elected to the position.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections

More than 80% of DeKalb County voters approved of the E-SPLOST (Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax for Education) renewal, despite no visible campaign nor media coverage. From the AJC:

School districts use E-SPLOSTs to pay for capital projects and technology. The revenue from the special taxes can’t be used for daily operating expenses such as salaries.

More than 80% of DeKalb voters approved the tax renewal, which takes effect in July when the current five-year tax expires. The DeKalb school district estimates the renewal will generate between $660 million and $700 million in revenue. City Schools of Decatur will also get an estimated $41 million from the tax.

I was talking with someone who said that seemed like a massive failure on the part of supporters of the E-SPLOST. Maybe. But maybe lying low was the best possible strategy, as no opposition coalesced either.

Athens-Clarke County voters extended their E-SPLOST, according to the Athens Banner Herald.

Athens-Clarke voters approved the ESPLOST in Tuesday’s election, renewing the sales tax for another five years.

The ESPLOST, or Education Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax, is a 1-percent sales tax that goes to the Clarke County School District. It passed with 80% of the vote.

Just more than 6,000 voters cast ballots in the ESPLOST election, out of the nearly 75,000 eligible Clarke voters.

Atlanta voters approved the extension of a homestead exemption for some homeowners, according to the AJC.

More than 80% of voters approved a measure that will allow eligible homeowners to continue to receive a break on their Atlanta school property taxes.

The measure appeared on ballots Tuesday.

With its passage, a homestead exemption granted to some property owners that was set to expire at the end of the year now becomes permanent.

Eligible property owners will receive a homestead exemption from Atlanta Public Schools’ taxes in the amount of $50,000 of their home’s assessed value. They are required to pay taxes on at least $10,000 of the assessed value.

The exemption was first given to homeowners a few years ago to offer temporary relief from rising property values that drove tax bills up.

Governor Brian Kemp is fundraising for the possibility of hotly-contested campaigns next year, according to the AJC.

Gov. Brian Kemp is quickly building up his campaign coffers as he prepares for a potential rematch against Democrat Stacey Abrams – and the possibility of a brutal GOP primary challenge from former U.S. Sen. David Perdue.

Kemp won’t face another finance disclosure requirement until early next year, but his campaign on Thursday released figures to the AJC that showed the Republican has raised more than $4 million since July 1. He boasts nearly $13 million in cash on hand between his campaign and an affiliated PAC.

The decision to disclose the figures shows how seriously Kemp’s campaign is taking the threat of a Perdue challenge. His allies have warned there would be a “scorched earth” campaign if the ex-U.S. senator runs that could irrevocably split the GOP this cycle and cripple the chances of defeating Abrams.

Former Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed‘s comeback bid appears to have stalled, leaving him out of the runoff election, according to the AJC.

[Andre] Dickens’ lead over Reed stood at 0.6% Wednesday afternoon. According to the secretary of state’s office, there are 222 provisional ballots in DeKalb County and 748 in Fulton County — but not all of those were cast in Atlanta precincts.

“We have been here before,” Reed told his supporters just past midnight Wednesday morning, referencing how his first term as mayor began after he narrowly beat Mary Norwood by 714 votes in 2009. “We have been in close elections before. We have won close elections before. Just remember, it is not easy. But the city of Atlanta is worth it. I will be back.”

Ultimately, Tuesday’s results suggest the former mayor — considered a frontrunner throughout the election due to his name recognition, fundraising ability and political prowess — was not able to overcome low favorability numbers across demographic lines, said Emory University political science Andra Gillespie.

“I think Kasim Reed lost because voters were ready to move on from his style of leadership,” Gillespie said. “The city changed, but also he changed, and I think his reputation had changed over the course of his mayoralty, which made a comeback difficult.”

Gillespie said the undecided voters, over 40% in the AJC’s last poll, were “the big wildcard” and likely peeled off to support Moore and Dickens.

Moore dominated in Buckhead, taking two-thirds of the vote in some precincts, and won on much of the Eastside. Votes from DeKalb precincts put Dickens over the top and into the No. 2 spot. While Moore got about 45% of the DeKalb vote, Dickens took 28%, more than double what Reed received.

“It was very clear that Felicia Moore, based on public and private polling, was surging in the No. 1 spot going into Tuesday night,” political strategist and Paramount Consulting CEO Tharon Johnson said. “What was unclear was the question around whether or not Andre Dickens could capitalize on his momentum.”

Also coming up short were Democratic efforts to turn some suburban Mayors blue in nominally nonpartisan races. From the AJC:

Despite Democrats winning over suburban voters in high-profile statewide and national elections over the past few years, those newfound gains didn’t translate to victory at the local level this week. Progressive candidates fell short in their bids to unseat established metro Atlanta mayors, matching a poor showing for Democrats across the country Tuesday that has party leaders concerned about next year’s prospects.

“It was a real rough night to be a Democrat,” John Jackson, chairman of DeKalb County Democrats, told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Wednesday. “We have to look at this and see what we can do to not repeat this in the midterms.”

In Tucker, incumbent Mayor Frank Auman won 56% of the vote over his challenger, Robin Biro. The race was one of the most heated in metro Atlanta due to the candidates’ past partisan affiliations — Auman is the former chairman of the DeKalb GOP, while Biro was a field operator for President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign.

Similarly, Johns Creek voters chose a new mayor, John Bradberry, and five candidates for City Council who were all supported by the Fulton County Republican Party.

Auman comfortably bested two opponents in 2016 to become Tucker’s founding mayor. While he said this year’s reelection bid was a hard-fought battle, he said Biro didn’t do himself any favors by relying so much on the county’s Democratic leaders for support and exposure.

“They thought all they needed to do was show up and explain who the Democrats were and everybody would form up and vote that way,” Auman said. “It was a miscalculation.”

“You don’t have to vote for somebody because they say they’re a Democrat or a Republican in a local race because you can get to know them, you can see them in the grocery store and you can sit with them at a ballgame and in the park,” Auman said. “You don’t have to judge by a label.”

Here’s my 50-cent political analysis. I think some Georgia Democrats mistook 2021, in which President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is underwater and the “right direction/wrong direction” is historically submerged, with the milieu of the last election.
Last month, I saw Karl Rove speak at a private event, and he said this:
“We have a President who got there with a pretty good strategy – make it about the guy who’s in power and say two things: (1) this guy is screwing up COVID and I’ll fix it; and (2) I’m normal.”
“But that election gave Biden only a mandate to deal with COVID and be normal.”
Now, Joe Biden and the Democrats hold all the reins of Washington power, and “blame the other guy” doesn’t work so well. Ask Terry McAuliffe how that worked out.

Richard Barron tendered his resignation as Director of the Fulton County elections office, according to CNN via the Albany Herald.

His announcement comes one day after municipal elections that he and other Fulton County, Georgia, officials said ran relatively smoothly.

Barron’s departure underscores the precarious position of election officials, who have faced unprecedented personal attacks in the last year and punishing new laws that threaten to sideline professional supervisors and install partisan actors in their stead.

“I think we have a lot of cowardly elected officials who won’t let go of the ‘Big Lie’ because they are scared of their constituents,” Barron told CNN in an interview. “If they could have stood up, they could have put an end to this a long time ago.”

Barron, 55, has led Fulton County elections since 2013. He said he will leave his post December 31. He said he plans to oversee operations in the runoff in the race for Atlanta mayor, which is scheduled for November 30.

Most Chatham County municipal elections do not require a majority of votes to win, according to the Savannah Morning News.

Georgia is one of the few states that requires runoffs for state-level offices, and many local governments have adopted the practice as well. To win a seat on Savannah City Council, the Chatham County Commission and the Savannah-Chatham School Board, a candidate must receive at least 50% plus one vote to win.

This also applies to U.S. House and U.S. Senate races, as we saw last year with two Senate runoffs.

In smaller municipalities, the rule can be skirted as long as their city charter explicitly states that runners can win on a plurality — in other words, win as long as they receive more votes than their competitors.

That’s what happened in Port Wentworth, where Rufus Bright beat out challengers Janet Hester and incumbent Lynwood Griner with 44% of the vote.

The difference between winning by majority vs. plurality can play a vital part in an election’s outcome.

Tybee Island, Bloomingdale, Thunderbolt, Pooler and Vernonburg — all elect their candidates and mayor at-large, a system written into their respective city charters, which means candidates who win the most votes are elected to council.

Today, the Georgia General Assembly convenes on Day 2 of the Special Session for redistricting. From WTOC:

The General Assembly needs to adjust district boundaries at least once every decade to equalize their populations after the U.S. census.

One issue to watch is whether Republicans target two suburban Atlanta Democrats, Lucy McBath and Carolyn Boudreaux, whose congressional victories reduced the delegation’s GOP tilt.

State Senate Republicans are pushing a map aimed at protecting all party incumbents seeking re-election next year.

House Republicans would sacrifice some seats held by the GOP to help remaining incumbents.

Republicans currently lead 34-22 in the upper chamber and 103-77 in the House.

From the Capitol Beat News Service via the Albany Herald:

Georgia House Republican leaders released a proposed map of state House districts late Tuesday less than 12 hours before the General Assembly kicked off its once-a-decade redrawing of legislative and congressional districts.

“We have produced a fair and equitable map representative of Georgia’s changing demographics and shifting population centers that is in full compliance with the spirit and letter of the law,” said House Speaker David Ralston, R-Blue Ridge.

A preliminary look at the proposed House map shows Democrats may have a chance to pick up seats now held by Republicans in Gwinnett, Cobb and Forsyth counties. Hispanic growth in the Gainesville and Dalton areas also could result in Democratic gains.

Democrats also could threaten a couple of GOP-held seats in southwest Georgia, where House districts will have to become larger because of population losses in the region during the last decade.

From the Rome News-Tribune:

The state Senate district currently dominated by Floyd County voters would shift farther into Bartow County under a proposed draft map released by Republican leaders.

The map is slated to be formally presented Thursday in the Senate Redistricting and Reapportionment Committee. The chairman, Sen. John F. Kennedy, R-Macon, said at the first meeting Wednesday that the committee would take public comments and could be ready to vote on a configuration as early as Friday.

Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan and Kennedy released the proposed Senate map late Tuesday, with the blessing of the Senate Majority Caucus.

“The draft map released today has been diligently crafted to represent our growing state,” Duncan said in the release. “As we continue to prioritize transparency and fairness throughout the redistricting process, listening to concerns expressed by members and the communities they represent will remain a top priority.”

The News-Tribune article by Diane Wagner continues with some solid analysis of changes to local districts and is worth reading in its entirety.

From the Associated Press via the Athens Banner Herald:

Republicans face obstacles to continued dominance as more of the state’s population becomes concentrated in metro Atlanta and around Savannah. GOP-dominated rural areas, especially in southern parts of the state, will see decreased representation.

“I think it’s no secret that Republicans are stronger in rural Georgia than they are in metro areas,” House Speaker David Ralston, a Blue Ridge Republican, told reporters. “Some of our Republican colleagues may end up being left behind, and that’s a tough part of this.”

Early maps have suggested the GOP will only go after one of McBath and Bourdeaux in an attempt not to overreach. A Senate Republican map aims to recapture McBath’s seat by adding Republican Forsyth County to the 6th District. The flip side of that plan creates a safe Democratic seat in southern Gwinnett County that Bourdeaux could hold.

With U.S. Rep Jody Hice running for Secretary of State, there’s no incumbent to protect in his seat, so his Republican colleagues could sharply shift his 10th District northward.

Lawmakers must at some point redraw the state’s five Public Service Commission districts. Those utility regulators run statewide, but must live in a particular district. It’s unclear if that will happen in the special session or later.

Senators have said they will hold hearings on whether Atlanta’s wealthy Buckhead neighborhood should be allowed to secede from the city, but no final vote on the issue is expected before the 2022 regular session.

From the Gainesville Times:

The redistricting session is happening later than usual, because of delays in the census count caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The necessary data was not released until August, and some politicians around the state must wait until lines are drawn before announcing their runs for office. State primary elections will be held in May 2022.

District 30 State Rep. Emory Dunahoo, R-Gillsville, said he has been considering a run for the 49th District senate seat, which is currently held by Sen. Butch Miller, R-Gainesville, but he has to wait to see if he lives inside the new map. Miller announced his candidacy for lieutenant governor in May, and County Commissioner Shelly Echols has since announced she is running for Miller’s seat.

“There’s certain things where I’ve been waiting six or seven months,” Dunahoo said. “I’ve been asked … over a thousand times, ‘How come you aren’t going to run for the senate seat?’ Well there’s nothing to announce when you’re barely out of the district. You can’t just do anything like that until the cards are on the table.”

County and city races are nonpartisan, so those potential candidates have more time until their next races. The next county elections will be held  in November 2022, and the next city races will be in November 2023.

Proposed senate district maps begin in the senate, and proposed house district maps begin in the house, but proposed Congressional district maps can start in either chamber, and must be approved by both chambers before being signed by the governor. And there may not be much friction in the process this year, because both chambers and the governorship are Republican controlled.

From the Capitol Beat News Service via the Gwinnett Daily Post:

Democrats and Republicans are offering vastly different visions for how Georgia should be represented in Congress, with Republicans seeking to maintain their majority in the Peach State’s 14-member U.S. House delegation and Democrats looking to even things up.

Georgia House and Senate Democrats released a proposed congressional map last month. Democrats said their map would provide a fair opportunity for voters of color in Georgia to elect representatives of their choice, as minorities would make up a majority of the residents in six of the 14 districts (Districts 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, and 13).

But with Republicans in control of the General Assembly, any map Democrats suggest – whether a congressional map or proposed boundaries for state House and Senate districts – promises to be dead on arrival.

For the GOP, the key question will be whether to try to regain one of the two congressional seats in Atlanta’s northern suburbs lost to the Democrats during the last two election cycles or go for broke and try to take back both seats.

A congressional map Georgia Senate Republicans released in late September appears to take the more cautious approach. It goes after the 6th Congressional District seat Rep. Lucy McBath, D-Marietta, won in 2018 by moving heavily Republican Forsyth County into the district and removing more Democrat-friendly North DeKalb County.

Democrats say their map is likely to lead to a 7-7 split in Georgia’s congressional delegation. Currently, there are eight Republicans in Congress representing Georgia and six Democrats.

From AccessWDUN:

Rep. Matt Dubnik of Gainesville spoke on WDUN’s Newsroom Wednesday evening. He says it’s not about demographics or about political parties, but it’s really all about the numbers. “The term demographics goes hand in hand with geography, and my eyes have been opened to the fact that, on my level and my seat, we all have to represent 60,000 people and this state has grown by a million people since the last census and for the most part they have been in Metro Atlanta,” he said. “While I would love to talk about things like preference, party, and demographics, the lesson I’ve learned heavily is that it is about population first.”

Dubnik currently represents Gainesville and, while his area will not change significantly, other areas may see a difference. “One of the things that I think is always pretty important is, as often as possible, is to have whole counties encompassed inside the district. When you look at this, outside of metro Atlanta you have big blocks that are whole counties encompassed. In Forsyth County, they were hoping for one member of Congress to represent the whole county.” But, he says those metro areas are the ones that have grown the most. While some metro areas have grown rapidly, other areas, such as in South Georgia, have actually lost numbers and have a dwindling population.

Dubnik says he wants to dispel the idea that redistricting is about splitting up areas based on political party. He says he has been hearing comments that, since the state seems to be evenly divided between the two political parties, that seats should also be split 50/50. “But,” he says, “I think if you watch elections, we have counties that are strong-leaning Republican or Democrat, or sometimes neither. So I think going across the board, saying it has to be 50/50, may not be representative of each individual community.”

This will be the first time in decades that Georgia lawmakers won’t be required to get federal approval of their maps after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a portion of the Voting Rights Act.

Rep. Dubnik has a refreshing take on redistricting.

Cuthbert elected former Randolph County school superintendent Bobby Jenkins as their next Mayor, according to WTVM.

961 voters showed up to the polls Tuesday in Cuthbert. Although three candidates were on the ballot aiming to be the city’s next mayor, Bobby Jenkins came out on top. When results were announced, he secured 66 percent of the city’s votes.

One of the top things on his agenda is addressing health care issues in Cuthbert. He says he plans to reopen the city’s only hospital that shut down in the middle of the pandemic.

“You know, if you have a medical emergency after 9 o’clock, then you are left at the mercy of the EMT’s or a family member who has transportation to get you 35, 40 minutes away to an emergency room,” said Jenkins.

I always love a story that begins Dateline: Hahira, Georgia.  The Valdosta Daily Times writes that roughly half of  Lowndes County municipal leaders on the ballot won reelection Tuesday.

Hahira Mayor Bruce Cain, an incumbent, received 232 votes, overtaking Ander Dell Player’s 139 votes – a total of 371 votes.

The District 1 seat of the Hahira City Council saw Louise H. White win the majority with 65 votes to incumbent Terry C. Benjamin’s 56 votes — a total of 121 votes for the race.

The Lake Park City Council will see two new members: Oscar L. Griffith Jr. and Michelle Ina Lane. They received 87 votes and 68 votes, respectively.

The duo beat out incumbent Thomas Barr, who received 30 votes, and newcomer Ralph A. Romero, who received 47 votes. The race resulted in a total of 232 votes.

City elections in Dasher and Remerton were canceled for lack of contested races. Both municipalities had three races each.

Solid reporting on local races. Thumbs up for the Valdosta Daily Times.

Lester L. Cromer Jr. appears to have won a three-way race for Tifton City Council District 3, according to the Tifton Gazette.

Curtis St. Germaine unseated incumbent Blythe Mayor Phillip Stewart, according to the Augusta Chronicle.

Brian Brodrick was elected Mayor of Watkinsville, according to the Athens Banner Herald. Earlier this year, Mayor Bob Smith resigned, and Brodrick became Acting Mayor; Brodrick then won a Special Election for Mayor in June.

Americus elected a new Mayor, Lee Kinnamon, who won 67% of votes, according to WTVM.

Nicole Smith ran unopposed- so she will be the council woman serving District 3. Incumbent Charles Christmas will keep his seat as District 4 Councilman, and Kelvin Pless retains his seat in District 4.

The Rome News Tribune covers local elections for Rome City Commission and Rome Board of Education.

The Newnan Times-Herald covers local elections in Coweta County.

In Grantville, incumbent Mark King was soundly defeated, coming in last in a three-way race for his council seat. Casey Evans will be the new council member, with 121 votes. Dee Berry was a close second with 107 votes, while King only earned 47 votes.

In Moreland, Lisa Washington unseated Jason Duncan for a seat on the Board of Alderman, 39 votes to 32 votes.

Incumbent [Sharpsburg] Council member Cynthia Puckett-Pike was defeated by Alex Edge 28 to 21, while Incumbent Elizabeth Good defended a challenge from Polly Garlington 37 to 14.

Kurt Ward was elected Mayor of Braselton, according to the Gwinnett Daily Post.

Ward overwhelmingly led City Councilman Hardy Johnson by a margin of 1,215 votes to 348 votes in the open mayoral race. Ward will succeed retiring Mayor Bill Orr.

In Braselton’s City Council races, Councilwoman Peggy Slappey was defeated by Richard Harper by a margin of 253-124 in the Council District 2 race while James Murphy defeated Jeff Gardner by a margin of 374-154 in the open Council District 4 race to replace Johnson.

Buford elected its youngest-ever Board of Education member, 28-year old Kathleen Welch, who earned 80% of the vote, according to the Gainesville Times.

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