Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for December 6, 2022

On December 6, 1847, Dr. William White spoke to a group of Atlanta residents about a proposal to move the state capital to Atlanta and was met with cheers.

The Thirteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution was ratified on December 6, 1865, when Georgia ratified the Amendment outlawing slavery.

“Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.”

The Washington Monument was completed on December 6, 1884.

On December 6, 1932, the legislation repealing Prohibition was introduced by Senator John Blaine of Wisconsin. It was ratified on December 5, 1933. Georgia never took action on the Amendment.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections

Today is Runoff Election Day. Call it Game Day. Check with the SOS MVP system for your voting location if you have any questions about your voting precinct location. From the Secretary of State’s Office:

Clayton, Forsyth, Richmond, Gwinnett, Fulton, Dekalb, and Cobb are among the counties publishing wait times, and we encourage voters to check before going to the polls.

I’d take my photo ID, a water bottle, snack, comfortable shoes, rain coat or umbrella, and maybe a folding chair. Good luck out there, my friends.

From the Brunswick News:

More than 1.85 million voters turned out to the polls last week to early vote in the runoff featuring incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

Patrick Duncan, chair of the Glynn County Republican committee, said he is uncertain how busy the polling places will be today, but the busier they are, they more it favors his party and Walker’s chances for election.

Julie Jordan, chair of the Glynn County Democratic Party, said she expects the prediction of a close race will motivate many Democrats to go to the polls.

“This is trickier than usual,” she said. “I expect a big turnout. We haven’t haven’t had enough early voting days.”

Duncan predicted a close election that will be determined by the candidate’s supporters most motivated to show up at the polls.

“It’s a horse race,” he said. “It’s about the turnout.”

Duncan said a Walker win won’t give Republicans a majority in the senate, but it would lead to a 50-50 split, which would make a difference, even with the vice president as the tie breaker.

“We can get better representation on committees,” he said. “It would say a lot about the state of Georgia if we could win back a senate seat.”

Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. for today’s runoff election.

From the Dalton Daily Citizen News:

Those in line at 7 p.m. will be allowed to vote. Voters should bring a photo ID.

Georgia voters continued “strong turnout during each day of early voting” last week, according to the Secretary of State’s Office.

As of Saturday morning, 1,712,651 voters cast ballots during early voting. Friday’s total of 352,953 broke the previous one-day record for early voting in the 2016 presidential election, where 252,715 voters cast their ballots. Monday and Tuesday both showed totals above 300,000 ballots cast, with the lowest total of 286,000 voters going to the polls on Wednesday. Thursday’s total of 298,000 nearly broke the 300,000 mark.

In-person turnout throughout the week reached 1,712,651 with total turnout reaching 1,852,593 including absentee and military voters. Turnout for the 2022 runoff has now reached 26.4% of active Georgia voters.

From the Valdosta Daily Times:

Nearly 18,000 Lowndes County voters have cast ballots during early voting for the high-profile Senate runoff race between incumbent Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

Some Valdosta voters in Lowndes County are also casting votes in a local runoff race between two candidates for the Valdosta City Council District 3 seat, Thomas McIntyre and Dr. Mattie Blake.

As of this past weekend, according to the Lowndes County Board of Elections 17,787 Lowndes County voters cast ballots during the week of Nov. 27 to Dec. 2.

Tuesday registered voters may vote in an assigned precinct from 7 a.m.-7 p.m. To find an assigned precinct, go to: https://mvp.sos.ga.gov.

Herschel Walker campaigned in Valdosta over the weekend, according to the Valdosta Daily Times.

Herschel Walker returned to Valdosta this past weekend to drum up support for Election Day.

Walker was joined by Republican supporters, voters and fans in a field across from Academy Sports in Valdosta, where he talked about military support, national security and what he called “strong, conservative family values”.

Rick Scott, U.S. senator from Florida, accompanied Walker.

“The grace of God had a place for me to go. The grace of God had a mission for me to do. And I thought that mission had something to do with athletics…But my mission is to be senator,” he said.

Walker also campaigned in Gainesville, according to the Gainesville Times.

Republican Herschel Walker was back in Hall County Monday – this time at Curt’s Restaurant in Oakwood.

It was Walker’s fourth campaign visit to Hall this election. He came just one day after Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock spoke to supporters at St. John Baptist Church in Gainesville – and a day before the Dec. 6 runoff election decides which candidate will occupy a seat in Georgia’s Senate for the next six years.

Retired Hall County resident Keith Hix, 61, said he believes Walker is the best person to fill Georgia’s contested Senate seat – which, even if Walker wins tomorrow’s runoff, still wouldn’t be enough to give Republicans control of the Senate after Democrats picked up a GOP-held seat in Pennsylvania and won races in Arizona and Nevada.

“I just don’t agree with anything the Biden administration has done,” Hix said. “I think there’s just too many rubber stamps out there that just go along with everything (Democrats) say, and I think Herschel will stand up and do things a little different.”

Hall County had more than 34,000 voters cast a ballot in-person in last week’s early voting period.

Polling precincts will be open from 7 a.m.-7 p.m. on Tuesday, Dec. 6 – which will be the last day to vote in the runoff election. Voters must go to their designated precincts to cast their ballot in-person. Absentee by mail ballots should be delivered to the ballot box located in the Elections Office on the lower level of the Hall County Government Center by 7 p.m. Tuesday.

From CNN via the Gwinnett Daily Post:

Former UN Ambassador Andrew Young rode his scooter alongside Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, Martin Luther King III and a fervent crowd of marchers on a recent Sunday through a southwest Atlanta neighborhood. The group stopped at an early polling location to vote, forming a line with some waiting as long as one hour to cast their ballots.

Community leaders and political observers say the Black vote has consistently played a pivotal role in high-stakes races for Democrats, including in 2021, when Warnock defeated then-Sen. Kelly Loeffler in a runoff. Black voters likely to cast a ballot are near unanimous in their support for the Democrat (96% Warnock to 3% Walker), according to a CNN poll released last week that showed Warnock with a narrow lead.

A second runoff victory for Warnock could once again hinge on Black voter turnout in a consequential race. If Warnock wins, it would give Democrats a clean Senate majority — one that doesn’t rely on Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote and allows Majority Leader Chuck Schumer more control of key committees and some slack in potentially divisive judicial and administrative confirmation fights.

Billy Honor, director of organizing for the New Georgia Project Action Fund, said the Black turnout so far looks promising for Democrats.
“When we get Black voter turnout in any election statewide that’s between 31 and 33%, that’s usually good for Democrats,” Honor said. “If it’s between 27 and 30%, that’s usually good for Republicans.”

Honor added: “This has an impact on elections because we know that if you’re a Democratic candidate, the coalition you have to put together is a certain amount of college-educated White folks, a certain amount of women overall, as many young people as you can get to turn out — and Black voters. That’s the coalition. (Former president) Barack Obama was able to smash that coalition in 2008 in ways we hadn’t seen.”

Young said he believes that Black voters are more likely to show up for runoff elections, which historically have lower turnout than general elections, when the candidate is likeable and relatable.

Senator Warnock campaigned in Gainesville, according to the Gainesville Times.

Warnock first won the seat in a special election two years ago, which also went to a runoff, giving Democrats a razor-thin majority in the Senate. He is now seeking a full six-year term.

Warnock emphasized the importance of his race and urged everyone to get out and vote.

“It’s an emergency. We can’t just have anybody represent 11 million people for six years. It’s an emergency,” Warnock repeated several times, rallying the crowd to a crescendo of whoops and applause before exiting the podium.

When asked about the stakes of the election, [Sue Perkins from White County] said a Warnock win will provide some buffer against more conservative Democrats like Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who have at times blocked President Joe Biden’s agenda.

“It’s just going to be a lot easier for us to do the work that we need to do in Washington,” she said. “That’s the bottom line. It means less red tape, more Democrats on committees.”

Making it easier in Washington is not an appeal that works for me.

From Greg Bluestein, writing for the AJC:

The runoff between Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker gives voters another chance to decide the coveted seat, and the outcome will shape whether Georgia has decisively swung back to GOP territory or retains its purplish hue.

A Warnock victory in the final election of 2022 would give Democrats the clear majority in the chamber, while Republicans are eager to narrow the Democratic advantage in the Senate to limit President Joe Biden’s agenda.

Unlike the November midterm, Walker won’t have Gov. Brian Kemp and other Republicans on the ballot to help as he appeals to swing voters. And Warnock, who has been on five ballots since November 2020, must persuade supporters to rally for him one more time.

Thanks to a turnout surge, Democrats are confident they’ve built a solid cushion during early voting that will pose a difficult, but not insurmountable, obstacle for Walker. An analysis by the left-leaning TargetSmart firm projects Warnock with at least 52% of the early vote.

Nearly one-third of the early-voting electorate is Black, the most reliable base of support for Democrats, and African Americans turned out in higher numbers than other demographics, Emory University political scientist Bernard Fraga said.

But Walker still retains a path to victory. The few polls of the runoff indicate he has the edge with older voters, who participated in early voting at high rates. And Walker is relying on heavy election day turnout, which has long favored Republicans.

The question is whether the GOP base will turn out in big numbers for Walker, whose history of erratic and violent behavior — as well as blunders on the campaign trail — have alienated many in the party.

“Your average Georgia Republican voter has already moved on,” said Jason Shepherd, a former Cobb County GOP chair. “Most Republicans knew Walker needed to win in November as he had too many missteps and too many negatives. He needed the rest of the ticket to pull him over the goal.”