Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for December 5, 2022

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Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for December 5, 2022

On December 5, 1887, Georgia voters approved a new State Constitution and voted to keep the state capital in Atlanta instead of moving it back to Milledgeville.

On December 5, 1933, Utah became the 36th state to ratify the 21st Amendment, repealing the 18th Amendment and ending prohibition. Earlier that day, Pennsylvania and Ohio had ratified the Amendment.

On December 5, 2000, the soundtrack to O Brother, Where Art Thou was released.

On December 5, 2006, Republican Chuck Eaton won the General Election Runoff for Public Service Commission District 3, beating incumbent Democrat David Burgess. Total votes cast: 215,092.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections

Qualifying for the State House District 7 seat vacated by the death of Speaker David Ralston opens today and runs through 1 PM on Wednesday, according to a Press Release.

Notice is hereby given that a Special Election shall be held on January 3, 2023, in Fannin, Gilmer and a portion of Dawson Counties for Georgia House District 7 to fill a vacancy due to the passing of Representative David Ralston. A run-off, if needed, shall be held on January 31, 2023. Qualifying for the special election shall be held at the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office at 2 MLK Jr. Drive, Suite 802, Floyd West Tower, Atlanta, Georgia 30334.

The dates and hours of qualifying will be Monday, December 5, 2022, beginning at 9:00 a.m. and ending at 5:00 p.m., Tuesday, December 6, 2022, beginning at 8:00 a.m. and ending at 5:00 p.m., and Wednesday, December 7, 2022, beginning at 8:00 a.m. and ending at 1:00 p.m. The qualifying fee shall be $400.00. Monday, December 5, 2022, is the last day to register to vote for all persons who are not registered to vote and who desire to vote in the Special Election. Advance in-person absentee voting will begin on December 12, 2022.

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie described the Georgia Senate runoff with a football metaphor. From The Hill:

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) on Sunday said that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s (R) support for Republican Senate nominee and former NFL star Herschel Walker would contribute to a boost for Walker but difficulties remain when it comes to an outright win.

“He would be the first human being who ever dragged Herschel Walker over the goal line,” Christie, an ABC contributor, said on the network’s “This Week.”

“Brian Kemp, people wondered whether he would go all-in or not. He has. With his staff he has been out there personally campaigning for Walker,” Christie said.

“I think it’s going to be very close. These Georgia elections have been very close. I think it will be close,” Christie said.

“Warnock appears to have momentum. And let’s face it, he came into this with a lead from election night, right? So Walker has got ground to make up. … What hurts the Republicans the most is you can’t argue now that this is for control. If it was for control, some people who have some misgivings about Herschel Walker would probably be willing to abandon those in order to prevent Democrats from getting control. But now that control is not up, I think that may hurt Republican turnout a little bit,” Christie said.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: as long as Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are United States Senators, 50 Democrats in that chamber does not constitute “control.”

From the New York Times:

Whatever happens with Mr. Walker, keep an eye on Mr. Kemp. The 59-year-old Georgia governor is positioning himself to be a major Republican player — one that, unlike so many in his party, is not a complete Trump chump.

If Mr. Kemp’s electoral victory over Stacey Abrams was decisive, besting her by more than seven percentage points, his psychological victory over Donald Trump was devastating, in ways you cannot measure in votes. Mr. Trump had targeted Mr. Kemp for defeat this year, after the governor refused to help him subvert the presidential election results in 2020. The former president put a lot of political capital on the line in his crusade against Mr. Kemp, only to get spanked once again in Georgia. The governor’s refusal to bow to Mr. Trump wound up burnishing his reputation across party lines, which served him well in the purplish state. In the general election last month, Mr. Kemp won 200,000 more votes than Mr. Walker did in his race.

It’s all upside for Mr. Kemp. No one will seriously blame him if he can’t rescue a candidate as lousy as Mr. Walker, and he wins friends and influence within the party simply by trying. He also gets to wallow in his status as a separate, non-Trumpian power center.

And if Mr. Kemp somehow manages to drag Mr. Walker to victory, clawing back one of the two Georgia Senate seats Mr. Trump helped cost the party last year, it will be an ostrich-size feather in his already heavily plumed cap — not to mention a fat thumb in Mr. Trump’s eye.

Herschel Walker has talked about his Georgia roots a lot, but nothing could be more peak-Georgia than campaigning in the parking lot of a Piggly Wiggly. From WTVM:

Hershel Walker greeted supporters at the Piggly Wiggly grocery store on 13th Avenue in Columbus. The purpose of the rally is to continue to promote support for Walker and encourage voters to head to the polls.

“What they want to do is make these other leaders that America is weak, I’m telling y’all we’re not weak – we are good people. I don’t know how many people have already voted, but get out and vote,” says Senate Candidate Herschel Walker.

His supporters say it’s how he stands on the issues that’s most important to them.

“The abortion, because I am a speaker for the voiceless, which is babies, and babies cannot speak for themselves,” says one Walker supporter. “We need a good candidate in the government representing us, and Herschel is the one,” says another Walker supporter. “He’s got integrity, he’s got character, he’s definitely got Georgia on his mind, and he is for the people,” says one supporter.

“Tell your friends to get out to vote, and if you don’t have no friends, make some friends and get them to get out and vote, we have to get this right, right now,” says Herschel Walker.

Senator Raphael Warnock rallied voters in Gainesville on Sunday, according to the Gainesville Times.

At a Walker campaign stop in Gainesville last month, South Carolina Sen. Linsdey Graham took the podium and spoke about the stakes of the race, saying a Walker win would alter the course of the country and shape the future of the Republican Party “forever.”

Walker announced late Friday that he will make a third stop in Gainesville on Monday.

From AccessWDUN:

Crowds gathered inside St. John Baptist Church on E. E. Butler Parkway and cheered as Democratic incumbent Reverend Raphael Warnock delivered his speech. He touched on many of the major issues his platform aims to address in the event he is reelected to the United States Senate. Herschel Walker is currently running against Warnock in the December 6 runoff election. Several other members of the Warnock campaign and a local pastor opened with emphatic remarks.

When asked how he plans to encourage voters to head to the polls again on Tuesday, Warnock said he enjoys speaking directly to citizens and hopes such interactions prove his worth.

“I’m heartened by the extraordinary early vote turnout that we saw during that period, but we can’t rest—not even for one moment,” Warnock said. “We cannot take our foot off the gas, which is why you see me moving all across the state, talking directly to voters, something I enjoy doing anyway. But we need everybody to make a plan to vote—go to iwillvote.com. And make sure that you know your voting precinct because during the early period, you can vote anywhere in your county. But on election day, you have to vote in your actual precinct.”

“I think we are seeing in a state, that’s not known to be a split ticket state, that people have voted for me on both sides of the aisle,” Warnock. “And I think there’s a reason for that. On the issue of competence and character, the differences are obvious. And they’re stark. And in addition to that people have seen the amazing amount of bipartisan work I’ve done—enough to have me listed as the 18th most bipartisan senator in the Senate, even though I’m the most junior senator in the Senate.”

A group of female motorcyclists is running a voter turnout drive, according to WTOC.

“We let our bikes do the talking for us,” said Latonya Maxwell, President of Ladies First Motorcycle Club.

They’re part of dozens of other bikers traversing the Peach State with voting groups this weekend urging others to head to the ballot box during Tuesday’s runoff election.

So far the group has traveled from Columbus, to Albany, and here to Savannah for the “On The Runoff Tour,” not telling people who to vote for, but making sure they have the info voters need for each candidate.

“If you see yourself represented in their platforms and the things that they are talking about and how they’re communicating and conveying their message to people, then you should vote for them,” said Britney Whaley, Southeast Regional Director for Working Families.

The American Civil Liberties Union of Georgia hosted gatherings at each stop on the tour, hoping every voice will be heard by bringing in different groups.

I was cool with that right up until the part about the ACLU.

Geography will tell you a lot as you watch the election returns tomorrow night. From WSAV:

Warnock outperformed Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams in predominately Democratic counties like DeKalb, Fulton and Clayton. Meanwhile, Walker underperformed Gov. Brian Kemp (R) in predominately GOP counties like Forsyth, Cherokee and Hall. Experts say the key test will be how well both campaigns turn out those reliably blue and red counties.

“If there is anything to look at, I would be paying attention to if we see anemic turnout in traditionally Republican areas versus anemic turnout in traditionally Democratic areas, because whichever group has the most anemic turnout is probably going to be the side that loses,” said Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University.

Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, said that Democrats’ focus on the large metro counties will be especially important.

“For a Democrat, that’s absolutely essential. Can’t make up the votes anyplace else,” he said.

“I think the question for Democrats or Republicans is how do you get back those people who voted for Brian Kemp but could not or would not vote for Herschel Walker? And I think the challenge for Republicans is you can’t make the argument that control of the Senate is up for grabs,” said Gillespie.

Indeed, it’s no accident that former President Obama was stumping for Warnock on Thursday in Atlanta in an effort to energize the Democratic base.

Among some of the key counties in which Republicans will need to rely on high voter turnout are Cherokee and Forsyth exurban counties, which sit next to each other and lie north of Atlanta.

Cherokee went for Walker by 38 points in November and Kemp by 49 points. Trump performed similarly to Walker in 2020, winning the county by 39 points while Loeffler won it by 40 points. And like Cherokee, Forsyth was another GOP county where Walker underperformed Kemp with margins of 33 points and 46 points respectively. Trump and Loeffler took the county by 33 and 35 points respectively during the November 2020 election and January 2021 runoff.

Hall County, which includes Gainesville and is represented by Rep. Andrew Clyde (R), will also prove critical for Republicans. The county, also majority white, has just more than 200,000 people, located northwest of Athens. Kemp boasted a margin of 55 points while Walker took the county by 45 points. Trump won the county 43 points in 2020, while Loeffler won it by 44 during the 2021 runoff.

From David Catanese via the Ledger-Enquirer:

Warnock, who largely matched his 2021 performance in the Atlanta metro area this November, saw his numbers lag in outstate counties compared to his last race. The Democratic incumbent finished 37,675 votes ahead of Herschel Walker last month, falling just seven-tenths of a point short of the 50% + 1 necessary to avoid the runoff.

Cyrus Garrett, a Democratic operative who is working with outside groups in the state and directed the South for Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign, said the dropoff was likely the result of two factors: Fewer candidate visits to downstate areas and an impression held by some Black voters that Walker couldn’t possibly win.

“There was a lack of presence of showing up and there was also a feeling that this is kind of metro Atlanta Warnock and metro Atlanta [Stacey] Abrams and our issues aren’t as front and center to some of those folks,” said Garrett. “The funny thing is that Herschel Walker is such a historically bad candidate that a lot of those people didn’t show up the first time around, because … there was some disbelief that he could win.”

In Muscogee County, Warnock performed just under 1 percentage point worse than in his 2021 runoff against Kelly Loeffler. But in rural Stewart County, he was 3.5 points off his 2021 finish, in Terrell County, he ended up 2.5 points behind that marker and in Talbot County, Warnock was 2 points off his pace.

In Bibb County, Warnock fell 1.6 points short of his victory percentage against Loeffler. And across the state to the eastern side, in Liberty County, Warnock’s finish this year was more than 2 points worse than last year.

Yet in Fulton County, Warnock actually exceeded his 2021 percentage by a point. And in DeKalb County, another Democratic Party bastion in the most populous region, the senator met his 2021 vote benchmark even while competing against a third party candidate.

“Warnock ran the numbers up in metro Atlanta,” noted Danny Glover, a Macon-based political organizer. “However in order to win this runoff he has to do the same in the places he’s ignored since the last runoff: Columbus, Macon, Augusta and Albany. Remember when I talked about those areas being fickle?”

Walker’s path to victory is to boost his margins in exurban counties north of Atlanta as well slightly lifting his support in the vast majority of Georgia’s rural red counties, where he marginally improved on former President Donald Trump’s 2020 totals.

“You may say, ‘that doesn’t matter, they’re rural.’ The problem is Georgia has 159 counties, so when you add up all of those margins, that makes a difference,” said Stephen Lawson, a Republican strategist working on behalf of Walker’s super PAC. “That’s the opportunity, I think, that’s in front of Herschel, is to really run up the score in those places.”

Georgia voters set another early voting record Friday, according to 13WMAZ.

The Georgia Secretary of State’s office says the state broke another early voting record Friday, and at Bibb County polls, it certainly looked that way.

At one point, the line wrapped all the way around the elections building, and almost onto Pio Nono Avenue. Even after the polls closed at 5:30, plenty of people were still in line trying to make their voices heard.

Bibb Elections Supervisor Tom Gillon …. [said] the lines should be shorter Tuesday with all 31 precincts open. To that, the Hatfields say: “Get out and vote! If not today, then Tuesday!”

Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday, so there’s still time to cast your vote. Gillon says you can turn in absentee ballots up until 7 p.m. on election day. He says you must hand your absentee ballot to a staff member. That applies to any county.

Chatham County Commissioners approved a split of Local Option Sales Tax proceeds with its municipalities, according to the Savannah Morning News.

Chatham will accept a 31% county-69% cities split of the funds as suggested by city leaders earlier this week. In a letter dated Nov. 29, municipal officials listed the 69% rate as the lowest they would consider in negotiations. Chatham Chairman Chester Ellis clarified after that the share would not escalate as the commission previously proposed and remain at a 31%-69% split for the next 10 years.

The latest proposal comes just three days after the mayors sent a letter declining a county plan that established Chatham’s share at 31% but included an annual 2% escalation. Under that scenario, the county’s portion would climb to 49% over the 10-year length of the agreement.

 

 

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