Early Early Senate Handicapping – The Daily Beast

Mara Liasson had a report on NPR this morning about next year’s Senate elections (can’t find a link). She definitely makes it sound as if the R’s are in a great position to take control of the Senate.

Here’s the skinny. Democrats now have a 54-46 advantage. Democrats are retiring in three states–West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana–where the Republicans seem poised to pick up. Those three would get them almost there, and they’re pretty much givens (possible exception is Montana, depending on who runs).

The other best chances for Republican pick-ups are four red states where incumbent Democrats are fighting to keep their seats: Louisiana (Mary Landrieu), Arkansas (Mark Pryor), Alaska (Mark Begich), and North Carolina (Kay Hagan). If the R’s pick off two of those, which can certainly happen, they get to 51.

But that’s provided they don’t lose any seats. The math there just changed yesterday in Georgia, where Sam Nunn’s daughter Michelle just declared to run as a Democrat. The leading R’s are way out there. If Nunn can win, that’s a bit of a firewall.

via Early Early Senate Handicapping – The Daily Beast.