Cobb County GOP Straw Poll in the race for United States Senate in 2014

Phil Gingrey 146
Paul Broun 81
Karen Handel 68
Jack Kingston 64
Col. Larry Mrozinski 6
David Perdue 3
Derrick Grayson 1
Tom Price 1

Cobb County GOP Straw Poll in the race for United States Congress from the 11th District in 2014

Tricia Pridemore 108
Bob Barr 103
Barry Loudermilk 77
Ed Lindsey 41
Col. Larry Mrozinski 4

At the Seventh Congressional District for United States Senate in 2014

Jack Kingston – 38.3%
Paul Broun – 31.7%
Karen Handel – 15.0%
Phil Gingrey – 11.7%
Undecided – 3.3%

Here’s some perspective: in 2010 at the Cobb County Straw Poll, the following results were reported less than three weeks before the actual election:

PSC
Jeff May – 235
John Douglas – 154
Tim Echols – 122

 

Labor Commissioner
Melvin Everson – 425
Mark Butler – 152

 

Insurance Commissioner
Gerry Purcell – 235
Maria Shefield – 103
Seth Harp – 98
Ralph Hudgens – 47
Stephen Northington – 39
Tom Knox – 13
John Mamalakis – 5
Rick Column – 3

That year’s gubernatorial straw poll showed Karen Handel coming in first, followed by Eric Johnson in second and Nathan Deal in third. On election day in 2010, the Cobb County results matched the order in which the straw poll showed the candidates, with Eric Johnson narrowly beating Nathan Deal for second place.

However, the lower-tier races cited above were wildly wrong. Here are the actual results from the election on July 20, 2010.

2010 Republican Primary for Public Service Commission in Cobb County

Joey Brush 5406
John Douglas 11,509
Tim Echols 18,182
Jeff May 9,655

2010 Republican Primary for Labor Commissioner in Cobb County

Mark Butler 31,867
Melvin Everson 13,091

A friend of mine who is a long-time political professional said to me that the pace of straw polls has picked up dramatically between the mid-2000s and today. That may be true, or it just may be that blogs are more regularly talking about straw polls. This consultant said that from the candidate’s perspective, it seems that it’s most often used as a way of extracting extra dollars from the campaigns.

So, here’s our perspective on straw polls: it’s tempting to completely discount them because they’re easily gamed and often wrong. But the same could be said about publicly-released telephone polls.

We take the same approach with straw polls that we take with publicly-released polls. We look for patterns across multiple platforms, and see if anything emerges. Here’s what we take away from yesterday’s straw polls in context.

First, Karen Handel had a bad day yesterday if you expected her to be in first or second place in Metro Atlanta. But two third place finishes for a campaign that is the most recent entrant is not too shabby, and I’d be willing to bet that she has greater name recognition across the metro Atlanta than either Paul Broun or Jack Kingston.

Here’s the takeaway from this weekend’s straw polls.

Handel also led the field at the Fulton County GOP Barbecue a couple weeks back, coming in a strng first place with 42%. If she’s able to close the money gap between now and the end of the year, she’ll be a strong candidate.

Second, patterns in results are more interesting than isolated instances. Paul Broun scored two first place finishes yesterday, which is really the big takeaway. In the heart of Metro Atlanta, where many think his red-meat conservatism based on the Bible and the Constitution might have a harder time selling, he’s putting up consistently strong finishes.

Third, the advantage enjoyed by hometown heroes tends to be stronger in straw polls than in actual polling. I don’t believe Gingrey would finish as strongly among all GOP Primary voters as he did at the Cobb County Barbecue. In the 11th District, Tricia Pridemore and Bob Barr came in very close, and far ahead of everyone else as they’re the candidates from Cobb County. Last month in Fulton, Karen Handel won as did Ed Lindsey.

Finally, straw polls can have some predictive value if the following conditions are met: (a) it’s a competitive top-of-the-ticket statewide race like Governor or United States Senate; (b) no overwhelming local favorite is in the running; and (c) it’s closer to the election.

Personally, my predictive algorithm will discount straw poll results by the length of time before the election.

Two other observations on straw polls

First, I’d like to see actual numbers of votes cast, because that tells us as much or more than just the percentages. Look at the actual number of votes cast in the Buckhead Young Republicans straw poll last month. A single vote for Karen Handel put her in the lead by nearly four percentage points. Jack Kingston’s seven point lead in the Seventh District yesterday could be only a couple of actual votes, or it could be a large number, but we don’t know.

Second, I’d like to see a uniform set of rules for GOP organizations to run straw polls. Every single straw poll leads to complaints by someone or another about where the voting table was, how long voting was open, whether it was announced from the podium or not, and how many tickets candidate X gave to young staffers. Uniform rules would help make these straw polls more useful, or at least reduce the bickering.

Finally, I’ll note that the straw polls in statewide contests are more interesting and informative than those in districts, simply because all Georgia registered voters can vote for United States Senator, but there’s not yet any reasonable way to restrict voting in, say, a Congressional District or State House district straw poll to actual electors.