AJC poll clearly wrong on African-American turnout

The notion that African-American turnout will be dramatically lower than 2010 and 2012 is clearly wrong.

You will notice that African-Americans account for 24 percent of the sample, whereas they formed 28 percent of the electorate in 2010 and 30 percent in 2012 — and Democrats are mounting a big mobilization effort in the hopes that the number stays closer to 30 in a midterm year.

The poll initially weighted African-Americans at 30 percent of the sample, then applied a fairly tight likely voter screen, removing respondents who indicated that they were less engaged in the race or less likely to vote. Once those respondents were filtered out, the African-American vote share shrank.

“A lot here is going to depend on turnout, and if this is any indication, the black vote overall is not fully mobilized at this point,” said Mark Schulman, chief research officer at Abt SRBI. “And that’s critical.”

via AJC poll: Governor’s race in virtual tie, David Perdue has slight lead for Senate | Political Insider blog.