Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for August 12, 2016

On August 12, 1492 by the current calendar, Christopher Columbus set sail from the port of Palos de la Frontera in southern Spain with the Nina, Pinta, and Santa Maria. Other accounts date his arrival at the Canary Islands off the coast of northwestern Africa on August 12, 1492.

Juan Ponce de Leon invaded Puerto Rico on August 12, 1508 and declared himself Governor.

On August 14, 1784, Russians invaded settled Alaska, founding the first permanent Russian settlement at Three Saints Bay.

Dentist, gambler, and gunfighter Doc Holliday was born on August 14, 1851 in Griffin, Georgia.

On August 14, 1862, President Abraham Lincoln hosted a group of African-American men at the White House to discuss emancipation of American slaves outside the United States as colonists.

On August 12, 1864, Confederate General John B. Hood prohibited Confederate soldiers from seizing civilian property.

The Second Battle of Dalton was joined on August 14, 1864.

The first Ford Model T rolled off the assembly line on August 12, 1904.

On August 12, 1908, Ford’s first “Model T” rolled off a Detroit, Michigan, factory floor. Within six years, the car, company and man were propelled to unprecedented success, thanks to the new Highland Park plant’s first-of-its-kind assembly line, which created the intricate product quickly and in large numbers.

“If it hadn’t been for Henry Ford’s drive to create a mass market for cars, America wouldn’t have a middle class today,” wrote [Lee] Iacocca.

Increased travel spurred appeals for better and more roads, the development of suburbs, the oil industry’s rise and a boom in gas stations, strip malls and motels.

But the assembly line itself had the biggest impact on American society, Hyde contended, in making possible the swift, mass production of everything from computers to “fast food.”

On August 12, 1910, Georgia Governor Joseph M. Brown signed legislation prohibiting the carrying of a pistol or revolver without a license.

The County Unit System of elections was created on August 14, 1917 when Governor Hugh Dorsey signed legislation by the General Assembly.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act on August 14, 1935. The road to perdition is paved with good intentions.

On August 14, 1945, the Japanese surrender to the Allies was made public in Japan.

In the afternoon of August 14, Japanese radio announced that an Imperial Proclamation was soon to be made, accepting the terms of unconditional surrender drawn up at the Potsdam Conference. That proclamation had already been recorded by the emperor.

East Germany began building the Berlin Wall on August 12, 1961.

[T]he government of East Germany, on the night of August 12, 1961, began to seal off all points of entrance into West Berlin from East Berlin by stringing barbed wire and posting sentries. In the days and weeks to come, construction of a concrete block wall began, complete with sentry towers and minefields around it. The Berlin Wall succeeded in completely sealing off the two sections of Berlin.

Three churches in Albany, Georgia first allowed African-Americans to attend their services on August 12, 1962.

On August 12, 1968, Jimmy Page, Robert Plant, John Paul Jones and John Bonham played together for the first time.

The first Space Shuttle, Enterprise, made its first flight in the earth’s atmosphere on August 12, 1977.

President Jimmy Carter was nominated for reelection as President by the Democratic National Convention in New York City on August 13, 1980.

President Ronald Reagan signed the Economic Recovery Tax Act on August 13, 1981.

The ERTA included a 25 percent reduction in marginal tax rates for individuals, phased in over three years, and indexed for inflation from that point on. The marginal tax rate, or the tax rate on the last dollar earned, was considered more important to economic activity than the average tax rate (total tax paid as a percentage of income earned), as it affected income earned through “extra” activities such as education, entrepreneurship or investment. Reducing marginal tax rates, the theory went, would help the economy grow faster through such extra efforts by individuals and businesses. The 1981 act, combined with another major tax reform act in 1986, cut marginal tax rates on high-income taxpayers from 70 percent to around 30 percent, and would be the defining economic legacy of Reagan’s presidency.

Reagan’s tax cuts were designed to put maximum emphasis on encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship and creating incentives for the development of venture capital and greater investment in human capital through training and education. The cuts particularly benefited “idea” industries such as software or financial services; fittingly, Reagan’s first term saw the advent of the information revolution, including IBM’s introduction of its first personal computer (PC) and the rise or launch of such tech companies as Intel, Microsoft, Dell, Sun Microsystems, Compaq and Cisco Systems.

Fast Times at Ridgemont High was released on August 13, 1982.

A Special Session called by Governor Miller to address legislative redistricting after the United States Supreme Court threw out Georgia’s Congressional redistricting map was convened on August 14, 1995.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections

Georgia State House Democratic Leader Stacey Abrams was on MSNBC’s All In with Chris Hayes, talking about the Presidential prospects in Georgia.

https://youtu.be/G-IXnGwgEhw

Aaron Gould Sheinin of the AJC identifies the money quote from Abrams.

“The demography has been leading us in this direction for quite some time and Trump is just the fuel we needed to accelerate our progress. He has had an extraordinary ability to unify every community that opposes him.”

Abrams also claims that House Democrats are likely to flip three seats in the Legislature’s lower chamber this year and possibly up to seven. She did not name those seats and her spokeswoman did not immediately respond to a request for clarification on Thursday.

The New York Times takes a deep dive into how the Trump campaign fares among Republican women.

In a striking series of defections, high-profile Republican women are abandoning decades of party loyalty and vowing to oppose Trump, calling him emotionally unfit for the presidency and a menace to national security.

But even more powerfully, his support from regular Republican women is falling after Trump’s provocative remarks about everything from the silence of the mother of a slain Muslim soldier to how women should respond to sexual harassment in the workplace.

Since the two parties held their nominating conventions, Trump’s lead over Clinton with Republican women voters has declined by 13 percentage points, according to polls conducted by The New York Times and CBS News.

In late July, 72 percent of Republican women said they would vote for Trump: a healthy majority, but far below the level won by the past three Republican presidential nominees. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 93 percent of Republican women. In 2008, John McCain won 89 percent, and four years earlier, George W. Bush won 93 percent.

In politically moderate swing states like Pennsylvania, which aides to Trump say are crucial to his victory, Trump’s standing with women overall is perilously low among registered voters: Just 27 percent of women back him, compared with 58 percent for Clinton, according to a poll by Franklin & Marshall College.

But a story from NPR on female swing voters in Arizona and Ohio may provide some ballast for righting the ship.

The first female presidential candidate is NBD

Clinton made history this year to become the first woman nominated by a major party to run for president. But the moms overwhelmingly said that wouldn’t affect how they vote. Nearly all agreed that the historic candidacy of Barack Obama, the first black man nominated, felt much bigger and more urgent.

“It was more exciting, it was more history-making. He had so much he envisioned. He had real issues he was fighting for,” said Dana from Columbus.

Clinton is fundamentally untrustworthy

Without a doubt the biggest criticism of Clinton is that these women — even those inclined to support her — think she can’t be trusted. It was a theme revisited over and over again throughout the evening.

“You don’t know what’s the truth and what’s the lie,” says Donna, a married mother of one child from Columbus. Asked what their biggest hesitation was about Clinton, “trustworthiness” came up repeatedly. “The whole email thing. I mean, c’mon,” says Amy of Phoenix.

The women were all aware of Clinton’s controversy over hosting her emails on a private server while she served as secretary of state. None of them believed she told the truth, or handled the fallout well.

Emory Political Scientist Alan Abramowitz admits to personal doubts now about the predictive quality of his electoral modeling after it shows Trump winning in November.

The Time for Change forecasting model has correctly predicted the winner of the national popular vote in every presidential election since 1988. This model is based on three predictors — the incumbent president’s approval rating at midyear (late June or early July) in the Gallup Poll, the growth rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the election year, and whether the incumbent president’s party has held the White House for one term or more than one term. Using these three predictors, it is possible to forecast the incumbent party’s share of the major party vote with a high degree of accuracy around three months before Election Day.

Based on a net approval rating for Barack Obama of +6 in the Gallup weekly tracking poll for the week of June 27-July 4, an estimated second quarter change in real GDP of 1.2% according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the fact that Hillary Clinton is seeking a third consecutive Democratic term in the White House, the Time for Change Model predicts a narrow victory for Donald Trump — 51.4% of the major party vote to 48.6%.

Despite the excellent track record of the Time for Change model, there are good reasons to be skeptical about the 2016 forecast. For one thing, the overwhelming majority of national polls during the spring and summer of 2016 have shown Clinton leading Trump. National polls completed shortly before and after the national party conventions gave Clinton an average lead of about five percentage points, and Clinton is up by about eight points now. Beyond the poll results, the Time for Change forecasting model is based on two crucial assumptions — first, that both major parties will nominate mainstream candidates capable of unifying their parties and, second, that the candidates will conduct equally effective campaigns so that the overall outcome will closely reflect the “fundamentals” incorporated in the model.

The nomination of Trump by the Republican Party in 2016 appears to violate both of the Time for Change model’s key assumptions. Trump is clearly not a mainstream Republican and he does not appear to be running a competent campaign — he has lagged far behind Clinton in both fundraising and grassroots organizing in the swing states, and his rhetoric on the campaign trail has frequently brought sharp criticism from prominent Republicans as well as Democrats. In fact, there has never been a major party nominee like Trump — a reality TV star and wealthy businessman with no longstanding ties to the Republican Party, no political experience, and a penchant for insulting major voting groups. As a result, many prominent Republican leaders, including the last two Republican presidents, and the party’s 2012 nominee have refused to endorse Trump.

State Rep. Nikki Randall (D-Macon) and Miriam Paris (D-Macon) told their local newspaper that women candidates face impediments in elections.

While Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton talks about trying to shatter the highest, hardest glass ceiling in national politics, Georgia has never elected a female governor. Both Paris and Randall say the journey to higher office is tougher for women than for men.

Randall, a longtime Democratic representative who is leaving the Legislature this year, described the scrutiny that’s sharper and more personal for women than for men.

“We’re expected to be flawless at all times, gracious at all times. But our male counterparts can wear the same suit all week long and nobody says anything. They can act out of character at public forums and it’s OK,” she said.

Paris said a lot of people still see politics as a man’s game.

“And when women step up to the plate, they are not taken as seriously,” said Paris, a former state senator. After winning a Democratic primary this year, she’s unopposed in the November general election for the House seat that Randall is vacating.

Greg Bluestein of the AJC takes a longer look at the political rise of Ashley Bell, former Democratic Hall County Commissioner who is now in charge of engaging African-American voters for the Republican National Committee.

We have a big hill to climb. I understand that more than anybody,” said Bell, who will shuttle from his Gainesville home to Washington. “For me, this is as much personal as it is political.”

He’s been part of the Republican effort to increase its appeal to minority voters since 2013, when Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus conducted an “autopsy” into Mitt Romney’s failed 2012 bid for president. And the most recent polls outline just how difficult his work is.

Leo Smith, the Georgia GOP’s minority engagement guru, predicted that Trump could get 20 percent of the minority vote. And Bell said that mark is not out of reach, despite the dismal polling among black voters. One of his main missions: to convince black voters the GOP hasn’t “given up” on them.

“We are doubling down on the African-American vote,” he said. “The Democratic Party hasn’t had the answers. I go into urban areas where the Republicans haven’t been elected to anything, not even dogcatcher, and ask: Why not hear us out?”

Congratulations to Jason Mock who resigned as Chairman of the Forsyth County Republican Party because he’s moving to Texas to take a new job.

Hall County voters will weigh-in on whether to consider consolidating municipal and Hall County governments.

Residents across Hall County will be asked on Election Day whether they want a study conducted to determine the cost and feasibility of consolidating local municipal and county governments, as held in Athens-Clarke and Macon-Bibb.

The county Board of Commissioners voted 3-2 Thursday night to put the question to voters this November.

Commissioners Billy Powell and Jeff Stowe voted against the proposal, but each said they support the concept of consolidation.

“We’re willing to listen,” Gainesville Councilman George Wangemann said. “But as far as consolidation is concerned, I’m generally opposed to that.”

Commissioner Scott Gibbs said he brought the issue to the fore because the county is losing revenue as cities continue to annex unincorporated lands. Funding for schools and fire services, for example, are suffering as a result.

Gibbs has also floated the idea of turning all of unincorporated Hall into a city and then consolidating it with county government as a way to shore up the tax base.

Gwinnett County property owners should be receiving their new tax bills in the mail soon.

Tax Commissioner Richard Steele’s office announced on Thursday that it has mailed this year’s property tax bills. Officials said taxpayers will have until Oct. 15 to pay the total bill by making a single payment, or partial payments.

“For property owners with an escrow account, tax information is available to the mortgage company,” county officials said in a statement. “However, it is ultimately the responsibility of the property owner to ensure taxes are paid by the due date.

“If there are questions about who will pay the taxes, homeowners should contact their mortgage company directly, especially if their mortgage company has recently changed.”

College Park Mayor Jack Longino provides a lesson in petty politics, blocking an arts festival because the organizers worked against his election last year.

In a council meeting in June, Mayor Jack Longino cast the deciding vote against the festival, saying he was blocking the event because organizers campaigned against him in last year’s election.

“I think that sometimes the do-gooders in this city need to figure out where you want to be and what you want to be and how you want to be,” he said after the vote.

Longino accused opponents of saying “mean” things about him during the campaign, including that he was corrupt and racist.

“When you can come to this community and you can say those kinds of things and you want to kick me around and expect me to support you? You got another thought coming. I’m tired of forgiving people who treat people bad,” he said.

Grovetown City Manager Vicky Capetillo is stepping down during a federal investigation into the city’s dealing and a lawsuit.

Capetillo had been on paid leave since early June, shortly after the start of an ongoing FBI and Treasury Department investigation regarding missing city funds, and she will remain so until her resignation becomes effective Sept. 30, Mayor Gary Jones said.

Grovetown Councilman Dennis Trudeau, a longtime former mayor and the stepfather of Capetillo, read her resignation to a packed council chamber at City Hall.

The letter stated that Capetillo maintains her innocence and is entitled to her retirement and any accrued city employment benefits, which the council approved.

Meanwhile, Rob Hernandez prepares to take over as the new City Manager for Savannah

Hernandez, the deputy county administrator of Broward County, Fla., is the “unanimous” choice of City Council, Mayor Eddie DeLoach said Thursday at City Hall. Hernandez, 50, was previously a deputy manager in metro Atlanta’s Fulton County.

DeLoach said City Council will vote on Sept. 1 whether to hire Hernandez, who he said has a “can-do attitude.” The other three finalists of more than 120 initial applicants, however, have dropped out.

Speaking by phone from Fort Lauderdale, Hernandez told the Savannah Morning News he was “thrilled” to be named the finalist and that he’s “looking forward to the challenge.”

If hired in September, Hernandez will likely start in October, he and DeLoach both said.

Healthcare

State employees and teachers will see an average 2.5% increase in healthcare premiums under the state employee benefits plan.

The Albany Herald Editorial Board writes that Georgia’s legislature should take another look at expanding Medicaid.

Numbers in a study by the Urban Institute on the costs and benefits of expanding Medicaid in Georgia and 18 other states that have not done so should give state lawmakers reason to reconsider opposition to the expansion.

According to the study, as reported this week by Georgia Health News, for each dollar that Georgia would spend on Medicaid expansion, the state would gain $8.68 to $9.42 in federal spending.

When the question of Medicaid expansion first came following the passage of the federal Affordable Care Act, it was prudent for Georgia political leaders to determine what the financial effects on the state would be before joining in. The rush to get the ACA, usually referred to as Obamacare, passed by Congress and into law gave rise to concerns about what effect it would have and how it would impact states and individuals.

Now, there is data available, and Georgia leaders should give the idea of Medicaid expansion in the state another look.

Medicaid expansion also would have an impact at the local hospital level, where those who are uninsured are often unable to pay their bills, which ends up costing others.

The ACA is still a political hot button, one that is figuring into this November’s presidential election. And many Republican lawmakers and elected officials still have a bad taste in their mouth about how Obamacare, which has many flaws, came about to begin with. We, however, don’t get to choose our circumstances; we have to deal with them as they are. Reality is this: The health system is now set up in a way that Georgians are being economically penalized by not expanding Medicaid, and our state is missing out on federal dollars that are benefiting 31 other states.