Randy Evans – The Evans Report: 2014 May Bring Georgia General Election Runoffs

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2014 May Bring Georgia General Election Runoffs

In 1992, Democratic incumbent Sen. Wyche Fowler beat Republican challenger Paul Coverdell by over 30,000 votes on Election Day. But, Georgia law required a candidate to win over 50 percent–a simple majority–of the votes cast in order to win the election. Georgia law required a runoff between the top two vote-getters.

In 1992, Libertarian candidate Jim Hudson won just 3 percent of the vote. But it was

enough to keep Sen. Fowler from reaching the 50 percent threshold. Paul Coverdell won the runoff election by 20,000 votes to become only the second Republican U.S. senator from Georgia since Reconstruction. In response, Georgia Democrats promptly changed the law to provide for a runoff only if the leading vote getter failed to garner 45 percent of the votes cast.

Once Republicans gained control of Georgia state government, they promptly changed the law back to require a majority vote to win an election. Georgia’s current election law says: “… no candidate shall be nominated for public office in any primary or special primary or elected to public office in any election or special election unless such candidate shall have received a majority of the votes cast to fill such nomination or public office. In instances where no candidate receives a majority of the votes cast, a run-off primary, special primary runoff, runoff election, or special election runoff between the candidates receiving the two highest numbers of votes shall be held.”

Fast forward to the 2014 gubernatorial and senatorial elections. Although most voters only hear about the Republican and Democratic nominees, there are in fact four candidates for governor in Georgia in 2014: Republican incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal, Democratic State Sen. Jason Carter, Libertarian businessman Andrew Hunt and socialist workers’ and Trotskyist political organizer John Benson.

Notably, there are three candidates to replace retiring Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss: Republican businessman David Perdue; Democratic nonprofit group founder (and daughter of former U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn) Michelle Nunn; and Libertarian Amanda Swafford, a former Flowery Branch city councilwoman.

Of course, in the abstract, the addition of lesser-known candidates typically makes little difference. In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Libertarian John Monds received 4 percent of the vote. Yet, it made no difference. Gov. Deal handily defeated former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes with 53 percent of the vote.

On the other hand, in the 2008 senatorial election, Republican Sen. Chambliss received 49.8 percent of the vote in a contest with Democrat Jim Martin. But, that was not enough. Libertarian candidate Alan Buckley received around 3 percent of the vote and it was enough to force a runoff. Chambliss won the runoff handily with 57 percent of the vote.

Georgia’s runoff law combined with the current political dynamics certainly put Georgia’s 2014 gubernatorial and senatorial races at risk for the runoff possibility. First, the Republican and Democratic candidates in both races are locked in close election contests.

Second, the Libertarian candidates remain a factor. For example, Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Andrew Hunt has been polling as high as 7 percent in some polls – a number far greater than the less than 3 percent that forced a runoff in the 2008 senatorial election.

To date, no candidate in either the gubernatorial or senatorial races has demonstrated the ability to consistently or even inconsistently reach the elusive 50 percent threshold. The fact is that the third-party candidates riding general voter dissatisfaction with both political parties could end up being significant players in this election cycle.

If all of these dynamics were not complicated enough, the runoff election (if required) for the two gubernatorial and senatorial races are not even on the same day. The runoff election for the state and local elections is Dec. 2. On the other hand, the runoff election for the federal general election is Jan. 6.

In fairness, most insiders believe that Republicans should have the advantage in a runoff election as they did in the 2008 senatorial election. On the other hand, the ability of an incumbent president to raise money and direct resources can never be overestimated.

So far, most insiders had expected that the anticipated Louisiana Senate election runoff between Democratic incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu and Congressman Bill Cassidy would decide whether the Democrats retain control of the U.S. Senate. But, with the dynamics at play in Georgia, there could be another runoff with national implications.

With these kinds of dynamics, Georgia voters can expect the third-party candidates to receive a lot more attention than before. Yet, in elections when even less than 1 percent is enough to force a runoff, it may not make a difference. It will certainly make October and then General Election Day on Nov. 4 quite interesting.