Senate dreams: Voting trends belie parties’ hopes – Northwest Georgia News: National

WASHINGTON (AP)€” With most of this year’s Senate primary elections complete, Democrats talk boldly about their chances in Kentucky and Mississippi, while Republicans gaze hungrily at Oregon and Colorado.

Time for a reality check.

Both parties face big hurdles in achieving such against-the-grain triumphs. Studies show it’s increasingly difficult for Senate candidates to win in states their party lost in the previous presidential election.

That leaves Republicans, virtually assured of keeping control of the House, hopeful about gaining the six seats they need this fall to control the Senate for President Barack Obama’s last two years in office.

Democrats are defending Senate seats in seven states that Obama lost, some of them badly. All of those races are leaning Republican or are considered highly competitive.

The only Republican seeking re-election in an Obama-won state is Maine’s three-term Sen. Susan Collins, whose seat is considered safe.

Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz agreed. Senate races are becoming increasingly “nationalized,” he said. That means voters’ presidential sentiments are more likely to match their Senate choices.
The trend poses problems for Democrats in states such as Georgia and Kentucky, where Obama is largely unpopular, Abramowitz said.

Georgia is a bit more worrisome for Republicans, Walsh said. Democratic political novice Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn, is running in a state where GOP Senate victories are almost routine. Two establishment-backed Republicans, businessman David Perdue and Rep. Jack Kingston, are competing for the GOP nomination.

Obama lost Georgia by only 7 percentage points in 2012 without seriously campaigning there, and Democrats say the state is trending their way. Privately, however, top strategists say a true Democratic tilt is probably several years away, and Nunn faces a tough battle.

via Senate dreams: Voting trends belie parties’ hopes – Northwest Georgia News: National.