Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for May 5, 2014

The Battle of the Wilderness began on May 5, 1865, between the Army of the Potomac, led by General Ulysses S. Grant, and the Army of Northern Virginia under General Robert E. Lee.

On May 5, 1886, Jefferson Davis attended a public reception at Savannah, Georgia’s City Hall.

Boston Red Sox pitcher Cy Young threw a perfect game against the Detroit Tigers on May5, 1904.

Alan Shepard became the first American in space on May 5, 1961.

Campaigns and Elections

Early voting in person continues today in every county in Georgia. Personally, election day voting is a tradition for me, but I’m considering going early this year, since they’ve opened locations closer to my home. Many counties have new locations opening and it’s more convenient than ever to vote early. For complete information on early voting in your county, click here, then find your county on the pull-down menu.

Early voting statistics

As of the latest file from the Secretary of State’s office, 53, 870 Georgians voted early in person or requested absentee ballots.

Republican ……………………………..30,448 (56.5%)
Democratic ……………………………..22,031 (40.9%)
Non-partisan or empty field ………..1391 (2.6%)

Of the partisan ballots requested or voted, 58 percent are for the Republican Primary and 41.9% for the Democratic Primary.

2012 General Primary Election Early Voting

Democratic ………………..138,214 (34.3%)

Republican ………………..265,720 (65.7%)

What does this mean for early voting, and for the primary election? I don’t know, but I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts.

Off-year election dynamics

New Republic has an article by Sasha Issenberg, who wrote, The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns.

Today the Republican coalition is stacked with the electorate’s most habitual poll-goers—or “Reflex” voters, as we will call them. The Democratic Party claims the lion’s share of drop-off voters, or “Unreliables.”

Unmarried women, for instance, are one of the most consistently Democratic blocs, and they are also among the least likely to vote in non-presidential elections. Latinos, too, have become an indispensable part of the Democratic coalition, making states like Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, and potentially Arizona newly competitive. But while Latinos’ total presidential votes tripled from 1988 to 2012, their midterm participation has declined by about seven points. Obama won reelection in part because in 2012, African Americans for the first time turned out at a higher rate than whites. In 2010, black turnout trailed white turnout by nearly five points, and the election outcomes reflected that divergence.

Socioeconomic factors help to explain why turnout patterns vary so much by age, race, and marital status. The higher rates of mobility and displacement experienced by minorities (and the young of all races) unmoor them from the localized social networks that raise awareness and interest in civic affairs. Moving introduces transaction costs, too: registering at a new address, identifying the correct polling place, and so on. Conversely, owning a home tends to make individuals more politically invested in their communities and thus more likely to vote regularly. It is no coincidence that whites, who have high rates of property ownership, are also the electorate’s most reliable off-year voters—their turnout dropping by only two percentage points over the last quarter-century, to 48.6 percent during the last midterms.

At the same time, voting (or not) tends to be self-reinforcing. Records show that people who have cast ballots tend to maintain the habit, while campaigns and parties naturally prioritize potential supporters with spotty voting histories over those with no history of voting whatsoever. “It’s not rocket science that if a person votes in every election, you don’t need to knock on their door,” says Kevin Arceneaux, a Temple University political scientist. The inverse is just as true. One who has never voted is far less likely to receive a visit from a campaign volunteer.

Add it all up, and the Democrats’ midterm conundrum comes to look like an actuarial one. “If twenty years ago, you said the midterm electorate is older, I would have said, ‘Yahoo! Glad to hear it,’ ” says Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster. “But now the Roosevelt seniors are dead and the Reagan seniors are voting.” Increasingly, those older voters are backing the same side: In 2000, Al Gore won the youngest and eldest bands of the electorate by slight margins; in 2012, the over-50 vote broke for Mitt Romney by 12 points.

There are also simply more of those older voters overall. Since Obama’s first appearance on a presidential ballot, the population of Americans over the age of 55 has increased by nearly 13 million. By 2022, it will have increased by another nine million. People tend to grow more conservative as they age, but as a cohort, Generation X—whose oldest members will soon reach their fifties—is appreciably more conservative than the Millennials who follow them. “When the Millennials are fifty-five, they’re going to vote more Democratic,” Lake says, not exactly cautioning patience. “That’s thirty years away.”

 

Television Ads

U.S. Chamber of Commerce supporting Jack Kingston for Senate

John McCallum, First Congressional District

Political Potpourri

The Columbus Ledger-Enquirer would ask that you kindly get off their lawn refrain from placing political signs where they do not belong.

“The comprehensive sign ordinance, adopted by Columbus Council, February 10, 1998, requires political signs to be three feet inside the property line. Signs may not be placed on the public right-of-way.

“A simple rule of thumb to determine the right-of-way is three feet behind the imaginary line formed by utility poles, three feet behind a sidewalk, or three feet beyond the back slope of a right-of-way ditch line if there are no poles or sidewalks.

“Any signs found in violation of the Sign Ordinance will be removed.”

The website also says to feel free to contact the city’s Inspections and Code Department if you have any questions, which I did, so I felt free to call.

Remoh Thompson, the department’s sign inspector, said he patrols the city streets every day, not only inspecting signs that may have been reported, but keeping an eye out for misplaced signs or those that might otherwise be in violation.

He’s not just a political sign inspector, of course. He’s there to enforce all aspects of the city’s sign ordinance. That runs the spectrum from towering billboards to hand-scrawled cardboard yard-sale signs.

If he sees a sign on a city right of way, he stops, plucks it up (no, not the towering billboards) and tosses it into the back of his pickup.

And then?

“They go straight to the recycling center,” he said.

The Columbus Fraternal Order of Police has endorsed Colin Martin in his challenge to incumbent Mayor Teresa Tomlinson.

The organization of more than 600 law enforcement personnel Wednesday announced it’s endorsing challenger Colin Martin in his bid to unseat incumbent Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson, whose position as the city’s chief executive also makes her public safety director.

FOP President Randy Robertson said the endorsement follows a telephone poll of the chapter’s membership, but he did not cite specific numbers. “Hundreds and hundreds” of members were surveyed, he said, and he estimated the support for Martin at 70 percent or more.

The mayor Wednesday night said the FOP never asked her side, and made its endorsement solely with input from Martin’s campaign: “The FOP has not had a forum, interviews or even written questions.”

In Muscogee County School Board politics, the past isn’t dead, it isn’t even past. A 2012 vote to block personnel recommendations by an outgoing superintendent continues to reverberate.

The chairwoman of the nine-member board called the revolt “shameful.” Another board member called it “embarrassing.” An administrator called the five rebelling board members “cowards.”

Voters were outraged. Two months later, two of the three bloc members up for re-election were ousted.

Now, another election cycle has arrived, and two more bloc members are running. And that two-year-old vote still is a campaign issue.

Susan Andrews, the snubbed superintendent, had decided to retire a month earlier. Five days after she departed the district, the board unanimously approved the same recommended promotions, this time presented by interim Superintendent John Phillips. Critics complained no board members clearly explained why they changed their minds.

The result of that May 21, 2012, school board rejection continues to be a hot topic — and the result of this year’s May 20 school board election could depend on how voters interpret that history.

A Columbia County magistrate judge received a potent lesson about the importance of keeping one’s hands to oneself as he is resigning under allegations of inappropriate conduct toward women.

A Columbia County magistrate judge resigned his office Thursday amid allegations that he had behaved inappropriately toward women he had encountered as a guardian ad litem, officials said.

Doug Nelson, who had been a magistrate judge since 2007, submitted his resignation at the Evans courthouse, said Columbia County Chief Magistrate Judge Jason Troiano. It was effective immediately, Troiano said.

Nelson had been notified earlier Thursday that Troiano had taken him off the court calendar and intended to refer him to the Georgia Judicial Qualifications Com­mission.

“While it is inappropriate to comment on the matter, I take the allegations very seriously,” Troiano said in a statement. “The integrity of Columbia County Magistrate Court and the judicial process are of utmost concern.”

At least two women have accused Nelson of inappropriate remarks and touching while serving as a court-appointed guardian ad litem in their divorce cases, court officials said.

Gwinnett County Commission District 4 will be decided in the Republican primary election.

Two candidates, both Republicans, are running for the District 4 County Commission seat: Incumbent John Heard, an architect for Metro Waterproofing Inc., faces Alfie Meek, Gwinnett County’s former economic analysis director who now works as an economic development consultant for Georgia Tech.

The winner will make key decisions about how the county of more than 850,000 residents spends tax dollars, approaches economic development and shapes land development.

It’s been four years since the first indictment in connection with local and federal corruption investigations that thus far have indicted two commissioners, put one in federal prison, and forced the county chairman to resign.