Here’s what the new Georgia Polling Index for the General Election for Governor looks like:
| Deal v Carter | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | February | March | April 1 | April 8 | ||
| Nathan Deal | 47 | 45 | 38 | 43 | 42 | |
| Jason Carter | 38 | 42 | 41 | 39 | 43 | |
| Net | Deal +9 | Deal +3 | Carter +3 | Deal +4 | Carter +1 | |
Here’s the weighted average for the last three polls:
| 3-Poll Index | April 1, 2014 | April 8, 2014 | Change | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deal | 42.6 | 42.5 | -.1 | |||
| Carter | 38.7 | 39.7 | +1 | |||
And the weighted average for the last four polls:
| 4-Poll Index | April 1, 2014 | April 8, 2014 | Change | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deal | 43.6 | 42.4 | -1.2 | |||
| Carter | 38.5 | 38.6 | +0.1 | |||
The weighted average or index looks backwards at the most recent 3 or 4 polls and computes an average that account for the sample size. An 800 sample survey will have more effect on the final number than a 400 sample survey.
This naturally reduces the appearance of volatility and, we think, accounts for differences in pollsters’ methods.
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