Georgia Senate: Maybe, Potentially, Possibly … but Not Yet | Rothenblog


Georgia Senate: Maybe, Potentially, Possibly … but Not Yet | Rothenblog

The last Democratic presidential nominee to get more than 47 percent of the vote in The Peach State was Georgian Jimmy Carter, who drew 55.8 percent in 1980. Republicans now sit in all eight of Georgia’s statewide offices, and they have large majorities in both houses of the Georgia legislature.

As the nation has realigned geographically over the past 30 years, it has become harder for Democrats to win statewide federal office in the Deep South, and Georgia is no exception. Democratic strategists note the state’s changing demographics, and that certainly is true. But while that may change the political equation for 2020, it doesn’t change the state’s political arithmetic for 2014.

Midterm turnout trends suggest Nunn will have a harder time mobilizing Democratic constituencies in 2014 than she would have in 2012 or 2008, making it crucial for her to attract a larger share of independent and even normally Republican voters. That isn’t impossible, though it may be difficult given the normal midterm dynamic (where a sitting president’s party suffers).

Nunn has potential, and the Republican primary could increase her opportunities, both because of its bitterness and potential for producing a seriously flawed nominee.

But there is a heavy burden of proof on Nunn to show that she can win — or, rather, that Republicans are throwing the contest away. She will need every break to go her way to have any kind of real chance. Given that, we are moving this race from Safe Republican to Republican Favored. It’s certainly worth watching, though it doesn’t yet merit some of the early hype that it has received.

via Georgia Senate: Maybe, Potentially, Possibly … but Not Yet | Rothenblog.

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