Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for October 31, 2014

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Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for October 31, 2014

On October 31, 1517, Martin Luther posted his 95 Theses on the door of All Saints’ Church in Wittenberg.

On November 1, 1732, the Georgia Trustees met in London and chose the name and location of a new colony to be called Savannah.

Georgia and the Creeks Indians signed a treaty on November 1, 1783 giving Georgia control of all land between the Ogeechee and Oconee Rivers.

The United States Congress admitted Nevada as the 36th state on October 31, 1864. Kind of fitting, in a way.

Richard B. Russell, Jr. was born in Winder, Georgia on November 2, 1897.

In 1927, at age 29, Russell was named Speaker of the House – the youngest in Georgia history. In 1930, Russell easily won election as Georgia governor on his platform of reorganizing state government for economy and efficiency. Five months shy of his 34th birthday, Russell took the oath of office from his father, Georgia chief justice Richard B. Russell Sr. He became the youngest governor in Georgia history – a record that still stands. After Georgia U.S. Senator William Harris died in 1932, Gov. Russell named an interim replacement until the next general election, in which Russell himself became a candidate. Georgia voters elected their young governor to fill Harris’ unexpired term. When he arrived in Washington in January 1933, he was the nation’s youngest senator.

Russell had a long and storied career in the United States Senate, during which he served for many years as Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, unofficial leader of the conservative Southern wing of the Democratic party and a chief architect of resistance to civil rights legislation. He also ran for President in 1952, winning the Florida primary.

The carving on Mount Rushmore was completed on October 31, 1941.

Jimmy Carter was elected President of the United States on November 2, 1976.

The current Georgia Constitution was ratified on November 2, 1982 by the state’s voters.

President Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail to help his wife, Hillary Clinton, in her race for United States Senate from New York on October 31, 2000. Bill will be in Atlanta today, campaigning to elect Hillary Clinton President in 2016 Democrat Michelle Nunn to the United States Senate. The AJC Political Insider crew tells us the details and some of the history:

Want to see former President Bill Clinton campaign for Michelle Nunn, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, in Atlanta on Friday? Then be at Paschal’s Fine Southern Cuisine, 180 Northside Drive S.W., at 12:30 p.m.

This is a ticketed, but public event, the Nunn campaign tells us. To get a ticket, call 404-445-6709.

Paschal’s is famous as the restaurant at which Atlanta’s civil rights leadership, including Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., plotted their strategy — though it was at a different location at the time. But the new site has some resonance for the Clintons. Seven years ago, Paschal’s was the site of a Hillary Clinton presidential rally, which featured an endorsement by U.S. Rep. John Lewis. The congressman was eventually pressured to switch his support to another candidate — Barack Obama.

Maybe someone at Paschal’s will ask Michelle Nunn if she shares her father’s opinion as he wrote in 1998,

It is now clear that President Clinton is primarily responsible for dragging this nation through seven months of preoccupation with the Monica Lewinsky story. The national interest required that he correct any false statements and apologize to the nation months ago.

Even for those who accept President Clinton’s definition of his behavior as “not appropriate,” rather than deplorable and accept his previous testimony under oath as “legally accurate,” not perjury, it must be clear that for the past seven months he has placed his own personal interests far above the national interest.

In the weeks ahead, the president must lead by putting the country’s interest first. This means a voluntary and complete disclosure of all relevant matters concerning alleged acts of illegality to the independent counsel, to the congressional leadership and to the American people.

This will require personal sacrifice and may even require his resignation, but it would fulfill the president’s most important oath — to preserve and protect our nation.

On November 2, 2010, voters elected Republican Nathan Deal as Governor, and the GOP swept all of the statewide offices on the ballot.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections

Mark Rountree of Landmark Communications brings us an update on early voting numbers:

Georgia early voting and absentee ballot numbers as of Wednesday morning:

32.2% African-American/black voters
63.3% White voters

2012 Obama year early voting/absentee ballot voting was 33% African American/black voters.

So there are fewer total voters than 2012, but as of Wednesday morning was almost exactly the same percentage.

Note that despite this, Romney still won 53% of the overall vote in 2012.

L2 Early Voting 10292014L2 also offers these statistics based on primary voting history of this year’s General Election early voters:

Georgia – Early Voting as of 10/29/14 – 568,760 (13.1% of registered voters)

Democratic 213,814 (37.6%)
Non-Partisan 84,451 (14.8%)
Republican 270,468 (47.6%)

Google Early Vote Map

Click the map above for an interactive Google map of early voting locations. This was published by the Jason Carter campaign, one of the few smart things they’ve done.

RealClearPolitics has a great story about Georgia’s history and geography, how the GOP spread from the Atlanta suburbs to dominate statewide elections in 2010, and how that will play out this year.

For all the talk of the state’s trend toward Democrats, Georgia’s partisan index has been stable since 2000, notwithstanding the surge in black participation that accompanied the Obama elections.  Republicans took control of the state Senate in 2003, and haven’t had an election since where they lost seats. Republicans took control of the state House in 2004, and haven’t had an election since where they lost seats.  Perhaps most tellingly, in 2010 Republicans swept the statewide offices for the first time.

Which brings us, at long last, to 2014. The tightness of the race can be explained by two scenarios, which are not mutually exclusive: demographic change and candidate issues.  The candidate issues argument is straightforward: Michelle Nunn has run a good campaign, and has a family name associated with a conservative southern Democrat.  Perdue has, by most accounts, not run a good campaign, and has made favorable comments about outsourcing that probably play poorly with the sorts of older, rural whites who have favorable memories of Sam Nunn.  Voters who were 18 in 1990 are only 42 today, so there is still a substantial portion of the electorate that remembers the senator. Of course, we can’t know this with certainty until we get actual results.

What I think we do know, however, is that the growth of the non-white electorate is probably overstated.  In nominal terms, the white share of registered voters is down 4.6 percent from 2008, 3.7 percent from 2010, and 1.1 percent from 2012.

What’s odd, however, is that the black vote is perfectly stable, at 30 percent. The Asian share is up 0.2 percent since 2008, from 1.2 percent to 1.4 percent. The Hispanic share is up 0.4 percent, from 1.4 percent to 1.8 percent. The “other” share is stable.

The change in the electorate is almost entirely due to the “unknown” vote.  Who are the “unknowns”? To be honest, we don’t know! “Unknown” means the question is left blank. If someone marks two races, they are categorized as “other.”

If Nunn makes it to a runoff as the result of a strong showing among white voters, that strength could very well carry through to the runoff.  It’s far too early to say what a runoff electorate looks like, and Nunn will have other problems besides minority turnout to deal with (the University of Georgia goes back into session the day before that election). But if Nunn is really performing better among rural whites due to Perdue’s status as a wealthy businessman who says favorable things about outsourcing, she might have a shot at upending the conventional wisdom in a runoff, and re-creating the coalition that enabled Democrats to win elections in the 1990s.

Events


Happy Birthday – Congressman John Barrow

October 31

Happy Birthday  - Congressman John Barrow. Now take off that costume that you wear, pretending you’re anything but a liberal.

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FREE

GA GOP: Victory Tour – McDonough

October 31 @ 7:30 AM8:30 AM

Gritz Family Restaurant, 14 Macon Street, McDonough, GA 30253+ Google Map

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David Perdue: Rally With Governor Mike Huckabee – Valdosta

October 31 @ 8:30 AM9:30 AM

Smokin Pig BBQ, 4228 North Valdosta Road, Valdosta, GA+ Google Map

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FREE

GA GOP: Victory Tour – Fayetteville

October 31 @ 9:00 AM10:00 AM

Fayette County GOP Headquarters, 174 North Glynn Street, Fayetteville, GA 30214 + Google Map

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David Perdue: Rally With Governor Mike Huckabee – Tifton

October 31 @ 10:00 AM11:00 AM

Tift Area Conference Center, 804 7th Street West, Tifton, GA+ Google Map

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FREE

GA GOP: Victory Tour – Newnan

October 31 @ 11:00 AM12:00 PM

Sprayberry’s BBQ, 229 Jackson Street, Newnan, GA 30263+ Google Map

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David Perdue: Rally With Governor Mike Huckabee – Perry

October 31 @ 12:30 PM1:30 PM

Brannen Outfitters, 106 Fairview Drive, Perry, GA+ Google Map

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FREE

GA GOP: Victory Tour – Carrollton

October 31 @ 1:00 PM2:00 PM

The AMP, Bradley Street, Carrollton, GA 30117+ Google Map

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FREE

GA GOP: Victory Tour – Douglasville

October 31 @ 3:00 PM4:00 PM

Douglasville Square, Broad St. , Douglasville , GA 30134+ Google Map

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November 2014


FEE $10

Cobb County GOP Breakfast: With Rep. Jack Kingston & Karen Handel

November 1 @ 8:00 AM10:00 AM

Cobb County GOP HQ, 799 Roswell St, Marietta, GA 30060+ Google Map

COBB GOP   NOVEMBER BREAKFAST   WITH   Congressman Jack Kingston     ~ and ~   F…

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$3 / $5

Gwinnett County GOP: Breakfast with Gov. Nathan Deal, AG Sam Olens & David Perdue

November 1 @ 8:30 AM10:00 AM

550 Trackside, 550 N Clayton St, Lawrenceville, GA 30046 United States+ Google Map

We are delighted to host Governor Nathan Deal, Georgia Attorney General Sam Olen…

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FREE

GA GOP: Victory Tour – Lawrenceville

November 1 @ 9:00 AM10:00 AM

550 Trackside, 550 North Clayton Street, Lawrenceville, GA United States+ Google Map

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FREE

GA GOP: Victory Tour – Dunwoody

November 1 @ 11:00 AM12:00 PM

DeKalb County GOP HQ, 1532 Dunwoody Village Court #100, Dunwoody, GA 30338+ Google Map

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FREE

GA GOP: Victory Tour – Gainesville

November 1 @ 1:00 PM2:00 PM

Gainesville Civic Center, 830 Green St. NE, Gainesville, GA 30263+ Google Map

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Capitol Rally (DAY OF PRAYER) with Rep. Jason Spencer

November 1 @ 1:00 PM2:00 PM

Georgia State Capitol, 18 Capitol Square, Atlanta, GA 30339+ Google Map

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Romania: Presidential Election

November 2
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David Perdue: Sign Wave Before Debate at WSB TV

November 2 @ 8:00 AM8:30 AM

WSB TV Studio, 1601 West Peachtree Street, Atlanta, GA 30309+ Google Map

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US Senate Debate – LIVE on WSB TV and CSPAN

November 2 @ 11:00 AM12:00 PM
WSB TV & CSPAN
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Faith & Freedom Coalition GA: GOTV Rally with Col. Allen West

November 2 @ 2:00 PM3:00 PM

Roswell Street Baptist Church, 744 Roswell Street , Marietta , GA 30060+ Google Map

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Election Day: General Election

November 4
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GA GOP: Election Night Party – College Football Hall of Fame

November 4 @ 7:00 PM11:00 PM

College Football Hall of Fame, 250 Marietta Street, Atlanta, GA 30313+ Google Map

Election Day is right around the corner! And while we are all working around the…

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$5

Paulding County Premier of The Growing Hope Film

November 6 @ 6:00 PM8:00 PM

Dallas Theater & Civic Center, 208 Main St, Dallas, GA 30132+ Google Map

On November 6th, 2014 Rep. Allen Peake, Rep. Micah Gravley, Sen. Mike Dugan, Jim…

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Happy Birthday – Senator Saxby Chambliss

November 10

Happy Birthday – Senator Saxby Chambliss

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Happy Birthday – Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner Ralph Hudgens

November 21

Happy Birthday  - Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner Ralph Hudgens

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December 2014


Election Day: GA State and Local General Runoff

December 2
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Happy Birthday – Congressman Austin Scott

December 10

Happy Birthday – Congressman Austin Scott

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Happy Birthday – Senator Johnny Isakson

December 28

Happy Birthday – Senator Johnny Isakson

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January 2015


Election Day: GA Federal General Runoff

January 6, 2015 12:00 AM
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