Your Washington Desk
The Continental Congress renamed their new nation the United States of America, from the previously used “United Colonies.”
On September 9, 1933, WSB Radio in Atlanta was upgraded to broadcasting via 50,000 watt transmitter. The first broadcast included Will Rogers and a letter from President Roosevelt.
On September 9, 1939, an audience at the Fox Theater in Riverside, California watched a preview of Gone With the Wind.
On September 9, 1954, Marvin Griffin won the Democratic Primary election over Melvin Thompson.
Happy 72d birthday to former Congressman John Linder. Linder served in the State House from 1974-1980 and 1982-90. In 1990 he ran unsuccessfully for Congress against incumbent Democrat Ben Jones; in 1992, after redistricting, Linder was elected to Congress from the 7th District and served until his retirement after the 2010 election.
Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections
Today’s edition will be very short, but dense, as we have some numbers to crunch. From 6 AM to 9 AM, I’ll be sitting in with Tim Bryant on Georgia’s Morning News, on 1340 AM WGAU. If you’re in the Athens area, please listen in on 1340 AM, or click here to tune in via the magic of the internet. That link opens a page and you’ll need to click the “Listen Live” button at upper center.
Yesterday, the New York Times, YouGov, and CBS News released their latest online polling on the Senate race. Here are their numbers:
David Perdue (R)……..44%
Michelle Nunn (D)…….38%
Amanda Swafford (L)……7%
The AJC reported different numbers, showing Perdue 47, Nunn 41. I think they’re reporting the NYT’s prediction, which includes the second poll, whereas the numbers above are the second poll alone.
The most important number is that the NYT weighted African-Americans to 25%, while GaPundit’s latest poll weighted African-Americans to 30%. I’m right, they’re wrong, here’s why.
In 2010, African-American turnout was 28.26% of the electorate, in 2012 it climbed to 29.89%. Those are actual turnout numbers as reported by the Georgia Secretary of State’s office. Indisputable.
Yesterday, Michelle Obama spoke to a Democratic event in Atlanta, and according the AJC Insider:
If Democratic voter rolls and turnout increase just 3 percent — which amounts to 50 more voters at each precinct turning out than did in 2010 — Nunn and Carter can be elected, the first lady said.
Overall 2010 turnout was roughly 3.9 million voters and 3 percent of that is 117,000 votes.
So, according to Michelle Obama, 3 percent of the vote wins the race this year. If we take the 2010 turnout percentage of 28.26 and assume that half of the 3 percent Mrs. Obama refers to will come from African-American voters, we can say that if 30% of voters are African-American in November, the Democrats will be halfway home.
I don’t think there can be any question that 30% African-American electorate is the goal of the Democrats this year, and it is achievable.
In the 2012 general election, which saw President Barack Obama re-elected – though he fell short in Georgia — DeKalb County churned out 307,474 ballots.
But in the 2010 gubernatorial contest, when former Gov. Roy Barnes, a Democrat, faced Republican Nathan Deal, the DeKalb vote amounted only to 208,732. The 100,000-vote difference in DeKalb is significant, given that Barnes lost by just over 250,000 votes.
So the majority of the gain in African-American voter turnout could come from DeKalb County alone. I think that’s unlikely, but if DeKalb contributes significantly more votes than in 2010, that’s a good start on gaining that 117,000 needed votes for the Democrats to win.
Finally, I did this: I re-weighted the NYT poll to see what would happen if they used the same data but boosted African-American turnout from their 25% to the 30% I’m predicting. That change alone, without assuming any change in the White and Other vote closes the gap from Perdue +6 points to Perdue +1.1 points.
After reweighting the NYT results to 30% African-American turnout, the race looks like this:
David Perdue (R)………..41%
Michelle Nunn (D)………40%
Amanda Swafford (L)……3%
That’s Perdue +1 point. My poll last week showed Nunn +1.6 points for a difference between the NYT (reweighted) and mine of 2.6 points, well within the margin of error.
In summary, the two polls are substantially identical with respect to the positions of the leading candidates, and nearly all the difference can be explained as a function of different predictions of the African-American percentage of the electorate. (NYT also show a higher percentage of undecideds, and I suspect the difference is a result of differing survey sampling and screening techniques).
That demonstrates how important correctly estimating African-American turnout is in polling accuracy and how important actual turnout in November is. (It’s a complicated procedure and I’ll post the Excel Spreadsheet later today after the radio show.)
It’s closer than we thought it was, and we have to get to work.
Dandy is a male Bearded Collie & Terrier Mix puppy. Dandy was born on the 4th of July. Their mom looks like a Wheaten Terrier mix, but we don’t know who dad is… Dandy sure looks like a Bearded Collie, though we know he is a mix.
Dandy is just 9 weeks old and weighs about 10 pounds. We expect he will be at least 40 pounds when full grown. He is a chunky little fellow with fur like velvet. Dandy is cuddly, sweet and very lovable. He knows how to use a doggie door for potty and play. Dandy is available for adoption from Priceless Pets in Woodstock, GA.
1388 Sammy is a neutered Shepherd / Collie mix that is very alert and happy. He has grey on his muzzle so we are calling him a senior. He walks good on a leash. His coat is tricolor and thick. Sammy is available for adoption from Warner Robins Animal Control in Warner Robins, GA.
Hi There. I am Reggie and I’m a 3-year-old, 30-pound Border Collie mix. I was rescued from a very rural shelter by a great lady. Since then, I’ve had the time of my life playing with all my foster brothers and sisters in her huge yard. I’m one of those small, calm Border Collies who loves to run and play! I’d be a good jogging partner and love water, too.
Your Georgia Desk
via state Senator Mike Dugan
If you saw America the Movie you heard Madison Rising. America’s most patriotic rock band, has updated the National Anthem for the 21st century and re-energized it. These guys are very patriotic check them out at www.madisonrising.com
This September 14th will mark the 200 year bicentennial of the writing of the Star Spangled Banner by Francis Scott Key as he watched the American flag rise over Ft. McHenry on the morning of September 14, 1814 after more than 24 hours of relentless bombardment by the British.
To book the band, please contact: [email protected]
Your Georgia Desk
National Federation of Independent Businesses endorses Deal
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the nation’s and Georgia’s leading small-business association, today endorsed Gov. Nathan Deal for a second term. NFIB announced its endorsement at Smith Tire Co., an NFIB member business in Augusta. Deal also announced second-term initiatives aimed at encouraging growth of and protecting small businesses.
“The NFIB represents hard-working Georgians across our state, and I’m proud to receive its endorsement,” Deal said. “Small business owners are the engine of our economy. These men and women represent private sector jobs and investments in their local economies, and they contribute to thriving communities. I am honored to have the support of small business owners. In my second term, I will continue fighting to keep taxes low, slash burdensome regulations and promote conditions that allow these entrepreneurs to succeed and grow.”
“It’s hard to find a candidate for public office who doesn’t claim to support small business, but talk is cheap,” said NFIB State Director Kyle Jackson. “Gov. Deal has actually done something for small business. He kept his promise to help Georgia’s small businesses. (more…)
Your Washington – GA 7 – Desk
From Congressman Rob Woodall
Observations from Central America
Border Security and Immigration Reform
Last week I traveled to El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala to meet with local leaders about the flood of children from those countries who have been detained trying to cross into America without a visa. As you may now, so far this year, more than 50,000 unaccompanied children from these three countries have been stopped trying to enter the U.S., and that represents a more than 1,000% increase over the past three years.
The truth is that I’m still trying to digest what I learned, but I would like to share a couple of observations while they are fresh in my mind.
U.S. Border Security is Getting Better. You don’t hear this very often in America, and certainly we all want border security to be even better, but according to human smugglers in Central America, American border security is the best that it has ever been. It is so good, in fact, that smugglers are now offering a “three trips for the price of one” guarantee. That’s right. Smugglers no longer expect to succeed the first time, so they promise to try a second and third try for the former one trip price. (more…)
Your Georgia Desk
From Governor Nathan Deal
Deal: August revenues up 3.5 percent
Gov. Nathan Deal announced today that Georgia’s net tax collections for the month of August totaled $1.39 billion for an increase of $47 million, or 3.5 percent, compared to the month-ended August 2013. Year-to-date, net tax revenue collections totaled $2.88 billion, an increase of $125 million, or 4.5 percent, compared to the previous fiscal year when net tax revenues totaled $2.75 billion through August. Lastly, year-to-date gross tax revenues totaled $3.82 billion, an increase of nearly $197 million, or 5.4 percent, compared to month-ended August 2013.
Changes within the following major tax categories explain the net revenue increase in August:
Individual Income Tax: Individual Income Tax collections for August totaled $714 million, up from $699.5 million in August 2013, for an increase of nearly $14.5 million or 2.1 percent. (more…)
Your Washington Desk
David Perdue Responds To President Obama’s Executive Amnesty Delay
Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, David Perdue, today released the following statement regarding President Obama’s recent decision to delay executive action on amnesty until after Election Day:
“President Obama’s decision to delay executive action on amnesty until after Election Day is purely political in order to protect Senate Democrats and his hand-picked candidates like Michelle Nunn. Make no mistake, the President still intends to act unilaterally and grant amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants instead of working with Congress to secure our borders and enforce current laws. (more…)
Your Washington – GA 3 – Desk
From Congressman Lynn Westmoreland
17 September is Constitution Day
227 years ago, our Founding Fathers signed the United States Constitution and put in place principles to strengthen our freedoms and democracy through a system of limited government. The framers of the constitution instituted checks and balances so we are reminded that this is a government of the people, by the people, for the people, and we have a responsibility to protect our liberty and freedom.
As a Member of Congress, I swore an oath to support and defend the Constitution. I take this oath very seriously. I will continue to use my office to fight unconstitutional legislation and to fulfill the Constitution’s promise of limited government and individual liberty.
On Constitution Day this September 17th, I join many members of the Georgia congressional delegation in encouraging educators, especially in Georgia’s Third Congressional District, to challenge their students by having them study the Constitution so they can be reminded of the timeless values it upholds. (more…)
Your Georgia Desk
2016 presidential candidates: Too many to count
With the final stretch of the 2014 election to begin, political operatives have already started to line up key supporters and activists for the 2016 presidential election. Not surprisingly, this includes visits (indeed repeated visits)to Georgia by potential presidential contenders, especially as another Super Southern Tuesday starts to take shape.
Already, Texas, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida appear ready for a presidential preference primary on March 1, 2016, with other Southern states moving toward the same date. With so many nomination contests (56)to be held in so little time (just 75 days after the four carve-out states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada), regional and mini-national primaries are virtually inevitable.
Notwithstanding the challenges of such a compacted nomination process, it does not appear that any of the potential candidates have been deterred from sticking their toes in 2016 presidential waters. Instead, the crop of candidates –indeed, quality candidates –seems to grow with each passing day.
For those who just cannot wait until November when the 2014 midterm election is finally over, here is some inside skinny on many of the candidates already eying the 2016 presidential race. (more…)