Georgia Pundit http://gapundit.com Georgia Politics, Campaigns and Elections Fri, 31 Oct 2014 03:04:12 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.9.2 PHOTOS – On The Georgia Campaign Trail 30 October, 2014 http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/photos-georgia-campaign-trail-30-october-2014/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=photos-georgia-campaign-trail-30-october-2014 http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/photos-georgia-campaign-trail-30-october-2014/#comments Fri, 31 Oct 2014 03:04:12 +0000 http://gapundit.com/?p=44498 GaPundit:

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30 Oct David30 oct Evans 2

30 Oct Conyers 130 Oct Savannah

30 Oct signs30 Oct Tour Kemp

30 Oct Vote Tuesday30 Oct images

30 Oct Pro Life30 Oct Renee

30 Oct Evans 330 Oct Conyers

30 Oct Debate30 Oct Funny

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VIDEO – Rep. Scot Turner – TV Commercial – Education http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/video-rep-scot-turner-tv-commercial-education/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=video-rep-scot-turner-tv-commercial-education http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/video-rep-scot-turner-tv-commercial-education/#comments Fri, 31 Oct 2014 01:33:39 +0000 http://gapundit.com/?p=44468 GaPundit:

Your Georgia Desk From state Representative Scot Turner […]

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From state Representative Scot Turner 

Scot Turner for State House: Education

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VIDEO – David Perdue: TV Commercial – Trust http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/video-david-perdue-tv-commercial-trust/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=video-david-perdue-tv-commercial-trust http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/video-david-perdue-tv-commercial-trust/#comments Thu, 30 Oct 2014 15:16:37 +0000 http://gapundit.com/?p=44441 GaPundit:

Your Washington Desk From David Perdue US Senate David […]

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From David Perdue US Senate

David Perdue: Trust

Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, David Perdue, today released a new ad titled, “Trust,” highlighting how Georgians deserve better than dysfunctional government that has failed to produce results for the people of Georgia and how David Perdue will bring new leadership to Washington. 

Commenting on the latest ad, Perdue spokeswoman Megan Whittemore said: “Georgians don’t trust Washington. The constant gridlock and failed policies stemming from Barack Obama and Harry Reid’s agenda have not helped middle class families in Georgia. This election comes down to who the people of Georgia can trust to fight for them. David Perdue will go to the United States Senate to solve problems families face everyday. He will work to grow good jobs, protect our national security, and create more opportunity for all Georgians. Throughout this campaign, Michelle Nunn has shown she is wiling to say and do anything to get elected, but has failed to offer any real solutions on the issues that matter most. Georgians want more than that from their next U.S. Senator.”

Script:

Narrator: The issue is trust. Do you trust President Obama and the Washington politicians to deal with the problems we face? Too much debt. Not enough jobs. Terrorism and Ebola coming at us from overseas.”

David Perdue: “If you’re as frustrated as I am by the dysfunction in Washington and believe we can do better, then I’d really appreciate your trust and your vote. I’m David Perdue and I approve this message.”

 

 

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Study: Georgia ranks 27th in political engagement | Online Athens http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/study-georgia-ranks-27th-in-political-engagement-online-athens/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=study-georgia-ranks-27th-in-political-engagement-online-athens http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/study-georgia-ranks-27th-in-political-engagement-online-athens/#comments Thu, 30 Oct 2014 12:28:26 +0000 http://gapundit.com/?p=44439 GaPundit:

With the general election just a week away, and the eye […]

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With the general election just a week away, and the eyes of the nation focused partly on Georgia and its pick-’em contests for a U.S. Senate seat and the governor’s office, research by the financial website WalletHub has Georgia’s voters ranked just 27th in the nation in terms of engagement with the political process.

WalletHub’s rankings were based on a number of metrics, including the percentages of citizens in each of the 50 states and in Washington, D.C., who voted in the 2010 midterm election and the 2012 presidential election; the change in the percentage of citizens who voted in 2012 as compared to the previous presidential election year of 2008, and the total political contributions per members of the adult population in each state and in D.C.

via Study: Georgia ranks 27th in political engagement | Online Athens.

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State receives mixed review on election improvements http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/state-receives-mixed-review-on-election-improvements/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=state-receives-mixed-review-on-election-improvements http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/state-receives-mixed-review-on-election-improvements/#comments Thu, 30 Oct 2014 12:28:07 +0000 http://gapundit.com/?p=44437 GaPundit:

Common Cause, a nonprofit liberal advocacy group, analy […]

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Common Cause, a nonprofit liberal advocacy group, analyzed the performance of 10 states with hotly contested local and national races and found none has fully embraced the commission’s advice.

In Georgia, polling shows tight races between Gov. Nathan Deal and Democratic challenger Jason Carter, as well as between Democrat Michelle Nunn and Republican David Perdue in the state’s U.S. Senate contest.

Common Cause evaluated how well poll workers are trained, the quality of voting machines, access to polls and the language of election materials, among other things.

Georgia received satisfactory grades for its adoption of online voter registration, the use of schools as polling centers, the use of electronic voting machines, its early voting schedule and for providing ballots and registration materials online for military personnel and other citizens stationed abroad.

However, Georgia received an unsatisfactory grade because it does not require audits of voting equipment after each election to ensure it was functioning correctly and can be used again.

The report also gives Georgia an unsatisfactory grade because state law does not require bilingual poll workers at certain sites where large numbers of Hispanic and Latino voters cast ballots.

via State receives mixed review on election improvements.

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Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for October 30, 2014 http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/georgia-politics-campaigns-elections-october-30-2014/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=georgia-politics-campaigns-elections-october-30-2014 http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/georgia-politics-campaigns-elections-october-30-2014/#comments Thu, 30 Oct 2014 11:18:17 +0000 http://gapundit.com/?p=44421 GaPundit:

King Henry VII of England was crowned on October 30, 14 […]

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King Henry VII of England was crowned on October 30, 1485.

King Charles I of England granted a charter for a new colony called Carolana that included much of present-day Georgia, along with the current states of North and South Carolina, on October 30, 1629.

Stephen Douglas of Illinois campaigned in Atlanta for President of the United States on October 30, 1860. Douglas had defeated Abraham Lincoln for United States Senate in 1858, giving rise to the Lincoln-Douglas style of debate.

On October 30, 1871, Republican Benjamin Conley became acting Governor of Georgia after Republican Governor Rufus Bullock resigned; Conley served as President of the state Senate before taking office as Governor.

Conley took the oath of office on Oct. 30, 1871. Two days later, the new General Assembly convened and elected a new Democratic president of the Senate, but Conley refused to give up the office. The General Assembly then passed a law over Conley’s veto to hold a special election for governor on the third Tuesday in December. In that election, Democratic House speaker James M. Smith defeated Conley and assumed office Jan. 12, 1872.

On October 30, 1938, a science fiction drama called War of the Worlds was broadcast nationwide in the form of a series of simulated radio broadcasts.

Jackie Robinson signed with the Brooklyn Dodgers on October 30, 1945, becoming the first African-American professional baseball player in the major leagues.

On October 30, 1970, a fastball from Nolan Ryan was timed at 100.9 miles per hour, putting him in the record books. On the same day, Jim Morrison of the Doors was sentenced to six months in prison and a $500 fine for allegedly exposing himself during a Miami concert. Morrision died before the case was heard on appeal.

Polls and Turnout

This is the time of year when you can play campaign strategist like you play fantasy football. Simply pick the poll you like and then figure out what your candidate needs to make it happen. I’m over public polling for the rest of the election and will instead be watching turnout figures.

That said, here’s my ten-cent analysis.

RealClearPolitics has the Senate race tied up at 45.8% for Republican David Perdue and 45.3% for Democrat Michelle Nunn and 3.7% for Libertarian Amanda Swafford while the Huffington Post Pollster model shows a three-point advantage for Perdue at 46.5% to 43.5% for Nunn and 3.9% for Swafford.

The New York Times forecasting model says we have a 66% chance of a runoff in the Senate race.

In previous Senate runoffs, turnout varied between 55 and 57 percent of general-election turnout (in 2006, when the runoff was for the public service commissioner alone, turnout declined by a factor of 10). In other words, it’s less about attracting third-party voters to your side and more about voter motivation and get-out-the-vote efforts. It is doubtful that a likely-voter model designed for the general election will accurately reflect the composition of the runoff electorate as well.

The few head-to-head polls that have been released suffer from this same problem. The two-party preferences of the November electorate are next to irrelevant in trying to model the outcome of an election held among a very different set of voters.

The Washington Post column The Fix adds to the runoff analysis:

The runoff polls, for instance, apply the same electorate from Election Day to the runoff. And especially in Georgia, where the runoff is still more than two months away and turnout will be lower, it’s not a great measure. (Turnout in Georgia’s last two Senate runoffs — in 1992 and 2008 — has been between 81 and 84 percent as high as turnout in the following midterm elections.)

In addition, that drop in turnout almost always comes at the expense of the Democrats. The last five statewide runoffs have seen Democrats lose an average of nine points from their Election Day margins. In other words, if Nunn’s campaign were offered the same electorate Jan. 6 as Nov. 4, it would take it in a heartbeat. But that’s probably not feasible — especially given that this will be the state’s first post-New Year’s Day runoff.

In the Governor’s race, RCP shows Republican Governor Nathan Deal at 46.2% to Democrat Jason Carter at 44.2% and Libertarian Andrew Hunt with 4.3%. Huffington Post shows Deal 46.5% to 43.1% for Carter and 4.2% for Hunt. Nearly two weeks worth of public polls have shown Gov. Deal between 46% and 48% and I think he’s in solid shape to win without a runoff, depending on turnout.

That last line, “depending on turnout” usually constitutes “weasel words” that allow an analyst to walk back any incorrect guesses predictions, but this year’s Democratic efforts have made turnout the number one question in the election.

So what’s happening in turnout? Nate Cohn of the New York Times Upshot column tweeted last night:

Remember: if the Democrats are able to turnout sufficient voters to bring the African-American percentage to 32%, Democrats will win at least one of the top-of-the-ticket races.

Part of the bump in African-American percentage of early voting is due to last Sunday. Here’s the NYT graphic showing Sunday’s surge:

NYT Upshot Sunday Voting

The Times also has an article about the polling problems caused by weighting. It’s good information.

Even if pollsters had perfect targets for weighting their sample, many public polls might struggle to adequately represent young and nonwhite voters. Response rates from some underrepresented groups have fallen so low that pollsters sometimes need to weight respondents from these groups several times over in order to meet their targets.

This creates a dilemma for pollsters. Overweighting a few respondents might cause a small and unreliable subsample to have too much effect on the overall result; falling short of weighting targets will cause some demographic groups to be underrepresented.

Perhaps as likely to bias a poll as any problem with the respondents or the weighting are the decisions pollsters make about who will vote. These decisions are known as the likely voter screen, and they can bias the results of an otherwise perfectly representative sample.

After taking a sample and weighting it, election pollsters exclude adults deemed unlikely to vote. Polls use a variety of questions to do so — including whether a person is registered, whether they’ve participated in past elections, how certain they say they are to vote, whether they know where their precinct is and whether they’re interested in the election. In general, likely voter screens tend to exclude more Democratic than Republican voters, because more marginal voters lean Democratic.

Likely voter screens are blunt, imperfect instruments. The assumptions underlying them are often no more than educated guesses. Postelection studies have found that many voters deemed “unlikely” in fact vote, and many “likely” voters stay home.

The net results of this, according to the Times, is that polling may systematically underrepresent young and minority voters.

But all the news is not bad. Millenials appear to be shifting toward the GOP according to a large-scale survey by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics.

A new national poll of America’s 18- to 29- year-olds by Harvard’s Institute of Politics (IOP), located at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, finds slightly more than half (51%) of young Americans who say they will “definitely be voting” in November prefer a Republican-run Congress with 47 percent favoring Democrat control – a significant departure from IOP polling findings before the last midterm elections (Sept. 2010 – 55%: prefer Democrat control; 43%: prefer Republican control).

The cohort – 26% of whom report they will “definitely” vote in the midterms – appear up-for-grabs to both political parties and could be a critical swing vote in many races in November.

I first heard about this poll last night on GPB’s “Political Rewind,” where Jackie Cushman brought it up. Video of the show should be available in a couple days, and I’ll post it when it is.

PoliticalRewind 10292014

Dark Money in Politics

Yesterday, I heard an interview on NPR, where I got this quote from Nick Confessore,  who writes about the intersection of money, influence and power for The New York Times.

Over half of the advertising in this midterm election has come from groups that do not disclose much or anything about their sources of money and as independent spending in general consumes a bigger and bigger piece of the pie in politics, that’s going to become a bigger and bigger problem. It’s simply very hard to evaluate who is behind a lot of the political advertising on the airwaves.

With candidates, with parties, we can see a lot more and candidates and parties still account for most of the money sloshing around, most of the spending, most of the fundraising. But you know, as outside spending becomes a bigger and bigger part of politics and as more and more outside spending comes from groups that are technically kind of outside the system – off the books – it’s very, very hard. There could be a lot going on, there could be a lot of influence peddling going on that we will just never see, that is impossible to see because we can’t see the money changing hands.

Short Takes

A local GOP County Chair was arrested on allegations of aggravated sexual battery and criminal attempt to commit rape. There’s nothing that isn’t horrifying about this from a human perspective, as well as the political view.

Republican Stacey Jackson is an impressive candidate whom I met earlier this year. He appears to be giving Democratic State Rep. Debbie Buckner a run for her money.

The race between lawyer Stacey Jackson and 12-year state Rep. Debbie Buckner presents a stark contrast. Jackson’s reputation is built on his experience with some of Columbus’ big-headline murder cases, most recently his successful defense of Kareem Lane, twice tried and ultimately acquitted in the 1992 fatal stabbing of then-Muscogee School Superintendent Jim Burns.

Though he’s better known now as a Columbus defense attorney, Jackson points out he worked 2000-2008 as a prosecutor, rising to senior assistant district attorney handling cases in both Superior Court and in juvenile court, and his roots are outside the city.

Now 40 years old, he graduated from Harris County High School and still lives in Harris County today. He has family in both Harris and Meriwether counties.

In an earlier interview, he outlined some family connections: His father was principal of Central-Talbotton before moving to Harris County’s Carver Middle School; his mother is an assistant principal at Harris County High.

If he unseats Buckner, Jackson said he wants to focus on economic development to bring jobs to the district. “When I started looking at some of the rural parts of the district, like Talbot County and even into Meriwether County, there’s just a lack of economic development,” he said.

Harris County has prospered because of its nearby Kia Motors plant, but others have not, he said. Other counties also need improvements in education, he said.

“The test scores in Meriwether and Troup are below the state average when it comes to SAT scores,” he said.

He credits the state’s Republican leadership for recent improvements in funding. “We’ve had an increase of a half a billion dollars dedicated solely to K-12 education, so there has been some movement,” he said. “So that’s one positive thing, but obviously that’s from a conservative-led General Assembly and a conservative governor.”

Not only is Mr. Jackson an impressive individual, but he’s got a good command of the issues. While it’s probably a Democratic-favoring district, we’ll be keeping a sharp eye on this race on Tuesday night.

A good laugh

Crazy DeKalb

 

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Adoptable Georgia Dogs for October 30, 2014 http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/adoptable-georgia-dogs-october-30-2014/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=adoptable-georgia-dogs-october-30-2014 http://gapundit.com/2014/10/30/adoptable-georgia-dogs-october-30-2014/#comments Thu, 30 Oct 2014 10:48:23 +0000 http://gapundit.com/?p=44422 GaPundit:

Phoebe is a small female Terrier mix who was abandoned […]

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Phoebe

Phoebe is a small female Terrier mix who was abandoned with her best friend Ziggie when their owners moved away. While she started out frightened, she is now a sweet, social dog. Phoebe is available for adoption from The Humane Society of South Coastal Georgia in Brunswick, GA.

Brighton

Brighton is a young male Labrador Retriever mix with a huge smile who was found in a Publix shopping yard. He is friendly, loves to play, and would love an active family. Brighton is available for adoption from The Humane Society of South Coastal Georgia in Brunswick, GA.

Nellie1

Nellie is a young female Terrier mix who was found in a dumpster with four puppies who weren’t hers. She loves her wading pool. Nellie is available for adoption from The Humane Society of South Coastal Georgia in Brunswick, GA.

Nellie2

Randy Travis of Fox 5 Atlanta brings us the next dog, a pit bull female named Delilah who is currently fostered by his daughter.

Travis dog1

Here’s Delilah’s story:

I found Delilah at Paulding County Animal Control in May in extremely bad shape. She was extremely underweight, no hair on her paws, and with a bad case of kennel cough. The second I walked into her kennel she came right up to me and rolled over with her tail wagging like crazy. After crying like a baby for a half hour, I called Jason from Friends to the Forlorn Pitbull Rescue. He agreed to take her on in his rescue and pay for all her veterinary care if I agreed to foster her. Of course I said yes. With two other dogs at home and three cats I felt I could give her a resting place to get her back on her paws and see what she was like in a home setting.

A few months after bringing her home and posting her on any site I could think of to find her forever home, I was contacted by someone who recognized her and knew about her past life. This woman lived next to the man who abused her for the first 4-6 years of her life. She said Delilah was constantly outside, rain or shine, crammed in a crate that was half the size of her. She had six litters by the time she was rescued and completely and totally neglected. The police were called and it was discovered that this man had not only been neglecting her, he’d been raising her puppies for fighting. Thankfully, he was sentenced to 2.5 years in jail.

I’ve loved every single second of having Delilah. But it’s time she go to her forever home. Knowing Delilah’s past, she understandably does not get along well with other dogs. Surprisingly enough though, Delilah adores cats. She’s about six years old. Besides having occasional issues with her joints she is healthy as a horse. Completely vaccinated and spayed (never having puppies again!) And she’s potty trained!The only issue we’ve had with her is her fear of storms.

Delilah would be a wonderful dog for any family that doesn’t currently have dogs. She’s wonderful with children, does not need a lot of room, can go on short walks but doesn’t require tons of exercise to be calm. After five minutes of playing she’s tired for four days! She’d be great for a busy family or a retired couple looking for a companion to hang out with during the day. Please consider adding Delilah to your family!

Randy Travis dog 2

Click here to apply to become Delilah’s forever home.

Click here to donate to Friends of the Forlorn Pit Bull Rescue.

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PHOTOS – On The Georgia Campaign Trail 29 October, 2014 http://gapundit.com/2014/10/29/photos-georgia-campaign-trail-29-october-2014/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=photos-georgia-campaign-trail-29-october-2014 http://gapundit.com/2014/10/29/photos-georgia-campaign-trail-29-october-2014/#comments Thu, 30 Oct 2014 04:17:00 +0000 http://gapundit.com/?p=44419 GaPundit:

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27 Oct Huckabee

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October 29, 2014 – Fall 2014 Survey | The Institute of Politics at Harvard University http://gapundit.com/2014/10/29/october-29-2014-fall-2014-survey-the-institute-of-politics-at-harvard-university/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=october-29-2014-fall-2014-survey-the-institute-of-politics-at-harvard-university http://gapundit.com/2014/10/29/october-29-2014-fall-2014-survey-the-institute-of-politics-at-harvard-university/#comments Thu, 30 Oct 2014 01:07:43 +0000 http://gapundit.com/?p=44383 GaPundit:

A new national poll of America’s 18- to 29- year-olds b […]

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A new national poll of America’s 18- to 29- year-olds by Harvard’s Institute of Politics (IOP), located at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, finds slightly more than half (51%) of young Americans who say they will “definitely be voting” in November prefer a Republican-run Congress with 47 percent favoring Democrat control – a significant departure from IOP polling findings before the last midterm elections (Sept. 2010 – 55%: prefer Democrat control; 43%: prefer Republican control).

The cohort – 26% of whom report they will “definitely” vote in the midterms – appear up-for-grabs to both political parties and could be a critical swing vote in many races in November.

“The IOP’s fall polling shows that young Americans care deeply about their country and are politically up-for-grabs,” said Harvard Institute of Politics Director Maggie Williams.  “Millennials could be a critical swing vote. Candidates for office: ignore millennial voters at your peril.”

via October 29, 2014 – Fall 2014 Survey | The Institute of Politics at Harvard University.

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President George W. Bush: 41- The Book http://gapundit.com/2014/10/29/president-george-w-bush-41-book/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=president-george-w-bush-41-book http://gapundit.com/2014/10/29/president-george-w-bush-41-book/#comments Wed, 29 Oct 2014 22:27:42 +0000 http://gapundit.com/?p=44380 GaPundit:

Your Washington Desk via – Various Media Reports […]

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via – Various Media Reports -

Bush 41

41

Former President George W. Bush will be back in the public eye as he promotes “41,” his upcoming book about his father, former President George H.W. Bush.

George W. Bush’s interview with CBS newsman Bob Schieffer will air in two parts on Sunday, Nov. 9: the first on “Sunday Morning,” the second on “Face the Nation.”

An interview with NBC’s Savannah Guthrie airs on the “Today” show on Nov. 10. For publication day, Nov. 11, both former presidents will be on “Today” for a discussion with George W. Bush’s daughter and “Today” correspondent Jenna Bush Hager.

Other appearances by George W. Bush announced Tuesday by Crown Publishers include interviews on the Fox News Channel and NPR and a private event at the George Bush Presidential Library and Museum in Texas.

 

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