Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for November 7, 2014

Georgia and American History

Georgia Governor Joseph Brown addressed the Georgia legislature calling on them to consider Georgia’s future on November 7, 1860, the day after Abraham Lincoln’s election as President.

Jeanette Rankin was elected to Congress, the first female Member, on November 7, 1916 from Montana. After leaving Congress, Rankin moved to Watkinsville, Georgia in 1925. The Jeanette Rankin Scholarship Foundation, based in Athens, Georgia provides college scholarships and support for low-income women 35 and older.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected to a record fourth term on November 7, 1944.

Democrat Sam Nunn was reelected to the United States Senate on November 7, 1978.

On November 7, 1989, David Dinkins was elected the first African-American Mayor of New York and Douglas Wilder was elected the first African-American Governor of Virginia.

On November 7, 2006, Georgia reelected its first Republican Governor since Reconstruction, Sonny Perdue, and elected its first GOP Lieutenant Governor, Casey Cagle.

Georgia Politics – Seven Things You Should Know

1. Welcome to the 2016 and 2018 election cycles. Several months ago, when I first started saying that the 2014 Georgia elections were partly about jockeying for position in the 2016 Presidential race, it was a novel idea. But after campaign visits by Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Chris Christie (2x), and Rand Paul, it is clear that Georgia will play an important role in the Presidential election. (more…)

Nunn leads Senate race; Deal and Carter tied | The Augusta Chronicle

The Augusta Chronicle story has changed and now reads:

Pollsters weighted the responses to reflect an anticipated turnout in which 30 percent of the voters are black and 55 percent are female.

Assuming that 37% of voters in November will be African-American is either delusional, or the results were weighted to put the Senate and Governor’s races smack in the middle of what everyone else’s says. This is what FiveThirtyEight refers to as “herding.” Why would they do this?

Herding is the tendency of some polling firms to be influenced by others when issuing poll results. A pollster might want to avoid publishing a poll if it perceives that poll to be an outlier. Or it might have a poor methodology and make ad hoc adjustments so that its poll is more in line with a stronger one.

There’s a reason the polling firm here is among the very lowest-rated by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.

The closer the election gets, the harder it is to tell who is going to win, according to a poll released today showing the races for governor and the Senate effectively tied.

Democrat Michelle Nunn’s 47 percent gives her a slight lead in the Senate race over Republican David Perdue’s 45 percent, but the survey’s 4 percent margin of error means they’re statistically in a dead heat less than two weeks before Election Day. Libertarian Amanda Swafford’s 4 percent could trigger a January runoff by preventing Nunn from getting a majority. Another 4 percent haven’t made up their minds yet.

In the contest for governor, Republican Nathan Deal and Democrat Jason Carter each command 44 percent while Libertarian Andrew Hunt is taking 5 percent. Eight percent of those surveyed were still mulling over the choices.

The poll of 704 general-election voters was conducted by automated questionnaires via cellphone and landline Tuesday and Wednesday by InsiderAdvantage and Opinion Savvy on behalf of Morris News Service and Fox5. Pollsters weighted the responses to reflect an anticipated turnout where 37 percent of the voters are black and 55 percent are female.

via Nunn leads Senate race; Deal and Carter tied | The Augusta Chronicle.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for October 22, 2014

James Oglethorpe of Georgia signed a treaty with Florida’s Spanish government on October 22, 1736 that is commemorated each year with a very large cocktail party.

On October 22, 1832, the Cherokee Land Lottery began in which the Georgia state government gave away millions of acres of land in 160-acre and 40-acre parcels.

Governor John B. Gordon signed legislation changing the number of Georgia Supreme Court Justices from three to five on October 22, 1887

President Grover Cleveland arrived in Atlanta aboard the Southern Railway to tour the Cotton States and International Expo on October 22, 1895.

Grover Cleveland Atlanta

Four-hundred thirty-three Atlantans were poisoned by bad moonshine on October 21, 1951.

President John F. Kennedy announced the American naval blockade of Cuba after spy planes photographed Soviet missiles on the island 90 miles off the coast of the United States.

The third and final debate between Jimmy Carter and President Gerald Ford was held on October 22, 1976 at Williamsburg, Virginia.

The Atlanta Braves won the first World Series baseball game played outside the United States on October 22, 1992, beating the Toronto Blue Jays 7-2 with pitcher John Smoltz starting for the Braves.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections

Democratic Race-Baiting

Ferguson Mailer

The Georgia Democratic Party is engaged in vicious race-baiting in a divide and conquer strategy to drive African-American voters to the polls. The above photo originated, I believe, from an AJC scan, but has been traveling across the internet for 24 hours. (more…)

Newest Survey USA Poll – a look under the hood.

Here’s the bottom line on my analysis: The major change from the last SUSA and this are that Independents were breaking 3:2 for Deal and Perdue, but this poll shows them 40-37 Deal and 43-37 Perdue.

Here’s the old Survey USA Governor and Senate by ideology

                          Independent

Deal                    45
Carter                 29
Hunt                   16
Undecided          9

Independent
Perdue                49
Nunn                   31
Swafford              8
Undecided         12

Here’s the new Survey USA Governor and Senate by ideology

                       Independent
Deal                    40
Carter                 37
Hunt                   13
Undecided         11

Independent
Perdue               43
Nunn                 37
Swafford            9
Undecided        11

Hispanic and Asian are too high at 7 and 5 respectively. All “other” than black or white is usually around 8-9% total. That undoubtedly includes some “white” and “black” as well.

NB: When looking at subsample, your margin of error rises, sometimes dramatically so.

 

 

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for October 13, 2014

Former Confederate President Alexander Stephens was released from federal prison on October 12, 1865 and returned to Georgia.

On October 13, 1870, Governor Rufus Bullock signed legislation creating the Georgia State Board of Education.

On October 13, 1885, Governor Henry McDaniel signed legislation authorizing the creation of a state school of technology as a branch of the University of Georgia; the school would open in Atlanta in October 1888, and in 1948 was renamed the Georgia Institute of Technology.

On October 13, 1918, the ban on public gatherings in Atlanta to prevent spread of the Spanish flu, was extended an additional week.

1929 UGA vs Yale Tix

The first game in Sanford Stadium was played on October 12, 1929, with the University of Georgia Bulldogs beating the Yale Bulldogs. Here is the first ten minutes of the game.

1929_Georgia_vs_Yale

On October 12, 1958, The Temple was bombed after a phone call to WSB warned that Black churches and Jewish temples would be blown up.

Democrat Jimmy Carter received a post-debate bump against President Gerald Ford, with polls showing Carter at 50%-40% over the incumbent, up from 47%-45% before the debate.

Former President Jimmy Carter was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on October 11, 2002, becoming the second native Georgian to win the award, with Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr., having won in 1964.

DeKalb Jurors fight like politicians

The latest political soap opera in DeKalb County is not the behavior of politicians, but of voters. Specifically the dozen or so who were chosen to serve on the jury in the trial of suspended CEO Burrell Ellis. (more…)

Can you trust the unemployment rate? | www.myajc.com

To calculate the unemployment rate, the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics takes samples of nearly 60,000 households. They are surveyed monthly for four consecutive months, left alone for eight months and then surveyed again monthly for the next four months.

That means that in each month, there are eight “rotation groups,” each of them intended to be representative of the population. The government then weights the groups to come up with an official unemployment rate.

So that weighting has a large effect on the result.

Krueger and his collaborators found that during the first half of 2014, the unemployment rate among people in the first month of being interviewed was 7.5 percent. However, for those in the final month of being interviewed, it was only 6.1 percent.

But the Bureau of Labor Statistics weighted the first interview more heavily, so the official unemployment rate for this period was 6.5 percent.

via Can you trust the unemployment rate? | www.myajc.com.