Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for December 2, 2014

John Wesley left Savannah on December 2, 1737.

John Wesley’s strict discipline as rector of Christ Church in Savannah irritated his parishioners. More trouble followed when he fell in love with Sophia Hopkey, the niece of Georgia’s chief magistrate. When she married another man, Wesley banned her from Holy Communion, damaging her reputation in the community.

His successful romantic rival sued him; but Wesley refused to recognize the authority of the court, and the man who would eventually found a major Protestant denomination in America left Georgia in disgrace on December 2, 1737

Touro Synagogue, the oldest existing synagogue in the United States, was dedicated on December 2, 1763 in Newport, Rhode Island.

The Skirmish at Rocky Creek Church took place near Waynesboro, Georgia on December 2, 1864.

Politics, Campaigns, and Elections

Former State Senator Bob Guhl has died and his memorial service will be at First Baptist Church in Monroe on Saturday, December. 6 at 10:00 AM.  Visitation/reception following in fellowship hall.  Private interment with full military honors at Georgia National Cemetery in Canton at a later date.

Senator Guhl was first elected from District 45 (Walton County and parts of Barrow, Newton and Rockdale Counties) in a special election in the spring of 1993 and served until he was placed in a district with fellow Republican Mike Crotts in 2002.

Guhl was the first Republican elected to the DeKalb County Commission, serving from 1969-1972 and served as Chairman and CEO of the County from 1973-1976.

Guhl’s campaigns against DeKalb Democrat and bar owner Manuel Maloof were legendary:

Richard Nixon’s victory over George McGovern in 1972 seemed a foregone conclusion, and no DeKalb Democrat would risk running on the party ticket for a commissioner post that was up that year. Mr. Maloof talked to “about 150 people,” he estimated, trying to get them to enter the race. Minutes before filing deadline, Mr. Maloof himself became a candidate.

During the campaign, he and incumbent A.C. “Bob” Guhl, DeKalb’s first Republican commissioner and the man whose face Mr. Maloof slapped on a tavern toilet seat, swapped insults.

Retired Bibb County Superior Court Judge George B. Culpepper, III has also died and his funeral is today at 11 AM at Fort Valley United Methodist Church.

Today is election day in parts of DeKalb County, Columbia County, and the City of McRae-Helena. Polls are open from 7 AM to 7 PM.

Somehow, yesterday, I neglected to mention that Dodge County is holding a runoff election today for Probate Judge.

Al McCranie and Jody Batts will face off in the Tuesday, December 2 runoff election, as they received the two highest vote totals.
With all precincts reporting, but unofficial totals, Al McCranie received 2554 votes (or 49.43 percent), Jody Batts received 1372 votes (or 26.55 percent) and Blake Roland received 1232 votes (or 23.84 percent).

Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp has called a Special Election in State House District 120, where incumbent Mickey Channell (R) has announced he will retire for health reasons.

Notice is hereby given that a special election shall be held in Greene, Oglethorpe, Putnam, Taliaferro and Wilkes Counties to fill the vacancy in District 120 of the State House of Representatives on January 6, 2015. A run-off election, if needed, shall be held on February 3, 2015.

Qualifying for the special election shall be held in the Elections Division of the Office of Secretary of State, 802 West Tower, 2 Martin Luther King, Jr. Drive, SE, Atlanta, Georgia 30334. The dates and hours of qualifying will be Monday, December 8, 2014 beginning at 9:00 a.m. and ending at 5:00 p.m.; Tuesday, December 9, 2014 beginning at 9:00 a.m. and ending at 5:00 p.m.; and Wednesday, December 10, 2014 beginning at 9:00 a.m. and ending at 12 o’clock noon. The qualifying fee shall be $400 for the office.

Oglethorpe County businessman Jesse Johnson is the first announced candidate in the special election for HD 120.

Oglethorpe County Businessman, Jesse Johnson, owner of Southern Land Exchange and Southern Timberland Consultants announced that he is a Republican candidate for State House in Georgia’s 120th District.

He issued this statement:”My heart and my roots are in Georgia’s 120th District.  I care about the families, businesses, and farms of this district and their futures.  I am committed to getting this region’s economy growing again.  Unrestrained spending, overburdensome regulation, and high levels of unemployment cannot be the new norm.  We must reduce taxes, support the businesses that drive the economy in this part of the state, and pass state funded school choice.”

As a member of the Georgia Forestry Association and the Greene/Morgan Forest Landowners Association, I have met with and done business with people across this district.  From the sportsmen and the farmers, to the boaters and the business owners, the people of this district want the government out of their pockets and off their backs.  I am a conservative businessman who will keep the state government in its proper place, and I will fight to get the federal government out of our way.

Jesse Johnson is a member of the Oglethorpe County Farm Bureau, Athens Area Association of Realtors, Oglethorpe County Rotary Club, and is a former board member of The Sparrow’s Nest, an Athens based charity.  He attends Athens Church where he serves visiting guest.

The sentencing of former DeKalb County Commissioner Elaine Boyer on federal charges of official corruption has been delayed, likely until February.

The State House DeKalb County Cityhood Subcommittee will meet on Wednesday, December 3, 2014 from 1-2:30 PM in Room 506 of the State Capitol.

At this meeting the committee will hear testimony from representatives from the Tucker and LaVista Hills cityhood organizations. Following the testimony, the committee will take public comment.

The panel was created after LaVista Hills and Tucker were unable to come up with boundary lines by a Nov. 15 deadline.

Also Wednesday, at 1 PM, the Study Committee on Prescription Medical Cannabis for Serious Medical Conditions will meet in Room 341 of the State Capitol.

Finally, on Thursday, December 4, the Film & Post Production Study Committee will meet in Savannah at SCAD, Poetter Hall/May Poetter Gallery on the 2d floor.

Georgia Medicaid Director Jerry Dubberly will leave his job effective January 2, 2015, according to Georgia Health News.

As Medicaid chief, Dubberly oversees the services for about 1.9 million Georgians in Medicaid and PeachCare, with a state budget of more than $2.5 billion.

The Department of Community Health said in an email statement to GHN that Commissioner Clyde Reese is working on filling the vacancy.

As Medicaid chief, Dubberly oversees the services for about 1.9 million Georgians in Medicaid and PeachCare, with a state budget of more than $2.5 billion. – See more at: http://www.georgiahealthnews.com/2014/12/state-medicaid-chief-stepping/#sthash.UVUyXrau.dpuf

As Medicaid chief, Dubberly oversees the services for about 1.9 million Georgians in Medicaid and PeachCare, with a state budget of more than $2.5 billion.

Dubberly could not be reached for comment.

The Department of Community Health said in an email statement to GHN that Commissioner Clyde Reese is working on filling the vacancy.

It’s difficult to find someone to do the job well, experts say.

The Medicaid chief must deal with various sectors of health care, including hospitals, physicians and nursing homes, as well as consumers and their advocates and state lawmakers. The directors also must deal with pressure on spending.

- See more at: http://www.georgiahealthnews.com/2014/12/state-medicaid-chief-stepping/#sthash.UVUyXrau.dpuf

As Medicaid chief, Dubberly oversees the services for about 1.9 million Georgians in Medicaid and PeachCare, with a state budget of more than $2.5 billion.

Dubberly could not be reached for comment.

The Department of Community Health said in an email statement to GHN that Commissioner Clyde Reese is working on filling the vacancy.

It’s difficult to find someone to do the job well, experts say.

The Medicaid chief must deal with various sectors of health care, including hospitals, physicians and nursing homes, as well as consumers and their advocates and state lawmakers. The directors also must deal with pressure on spending.

- See more at: http://www.georgiahealthnews.com/2014/12/state-medicaid-chief-stepping/#sthash.UVUyXrau.dpuf

Inaugural Details Released

IMG_4070.JPG

Yesterday, Governor Deal’s Inaugural Committee released details of the weekend-long festivities.

We will be kicking off the commemoration with the statewide day of service. In 2011, First Lady Sandra Deal launched “With A Servant’s Heart” as a part of the Governor’s first inaugural. The Deals’ have continued to lead this tradition each year. Giving back to the community is a priority to their family, and Governor Deal and The First Lady encourage you to participate alongside them at this year’s event.
The inaugural agenda will also include a prayer service, the swearing-in ceremony, and a gala with special musical guests.

Schedule of Events

With a Servant’s Heart – Jan. 10, 9 a.m. to 2 p.m.
City of Refuge, 1300 Joseph E. Boone Blvd NW, Atlanta, GA 30314
Open to the public (multiple statewide locations to be announced)

Prayer Service – January 12 at 9 a.m.
Mt. Paran Church, 2055 Mt. Paran Rd NW, Atlanta, GA 30327
Open to the public

Swearing-in ceremony – January 12 at 2 p.m.
Liberty Plaza, Capitol Ave SW, Atlanta, GA 30334
Open to the public

Inaugural Gala
More details to come

For more information, you can visit the Inaugural website.

How Pollster John McLaughlin predicted the Governor’s race

Today, a piece I wrote about how Governor Deal’s pollster, John McLaughlin, correctly predicted the election results more than a week out appears in TownHall.com. More than just how he made the prediction, I wrote about the role of the campaign pollster and how it differs from that of media pollsters. I hope you’ll take a few minutes to read it.

During the active phase of the campaign, McLaughlin was polling more frequently and more deeply than media pollsters.

“We’re asking many more questions than you see in media polls – well beyond who’s winning and demographics, we’re asking what ads they’re seeing, what issues are important. We’re looking at the level of polarization in the electorate, and over time, as the undecided numbers dwindle, how the undecideds are breaking for one candidate or another, as well as what the early voters are doing,” said McLaughlin.

“In our last survey, a week before the election and following a period of weekly four-days-a-week tracking, our sample was 64% white 29% African-American. Fifty-one percent of undecided voters were white and 41% were African-American, and Governor Deal was still below 50%” said McLaughlin.

“But, among whites who had decided, Governor Deal received 71% and he was getting 10 percent among African-Americans. When we factored in those ratios to the undecided voters, we came to a 52-44 prediction.”

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for November 7, 2014

Georgia and American History

Georgia Governor Joseph Brown addressed the Georgia legislature calling on them to consider Georgia’s future on November 7, 1860, the day after Abraham Lincoln’s election as President.

Jeanette Rankin was elected to Congress, the first female Member, on November 7, 1916 from Montana. After leaving Congress, Rankin moved to Watkinsville, Georgia in 1925. The Jeanette Rankin Scholarship Foundation, based in Athens, Georgia provides college scholarships and support for low-income women 35 and older.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt was elected to a record fourth term on November 7, 1944.

Democrat Sam Nunn was reelected to the United States Senate on November 7, 1978.

On November 7, 1989, David Dinkins was elected the first African-American Mayor of New York and Douglas Wilder was elected the first African-American Governor of Virginia.

On November 7, 2006, Georgia reelected its first Republican Governor since Reconstruction, Sonny Perdue, and elected its first GOP Lieutenant Governor, Casey Cagle.

Georgia Politics – Seven Things You Should Know

1. Welcome to the 2016 and 2018 election cycles. Several months ago, when I first started saying that the 2014 Georgia elections were partly about jockeying for position in the 2016 Presidential race, it was a novel idea. But after campaign visits by Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Chris Christie (2x), and Rand Paul, it is clear that Georgia will play an important role in the Presidential election. (more…)

Nunn leads Senate race; Deal and Carter tied | The Augusta Chronicle

The Augusta Chronicle story has changed and now reads:

Pollsters weighted the responses to reflect an anticipated turnout in which 30 percent of the voters are black and 55 percent are female.

Assuming that 37% of voters in November will be African-American is either delusional, or the results were weighted to put the Senate and Governor’s races smack in the middle of what everyone else’s says. This is what FiveThirtyEight refers to as “herding.” Why would they do this?

Herding is the tendency of some polling firms to be influenced by others when issuing poll results. A pollster might want to avoid publishing a poll if it perceives that poll to be an outlier. Or it might have a poor methodology and make ad hoc adjustments so that its poll is more in line with a stronger one.

There’s a reason the polling firm here is among the very lowest-rated by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.

The closer the election gets, the harder it is to tell who is going to win, according to a poll released today showing the races for governor and the Senate effectively tied.

Democrat Michelle Nunn’s 47 percent gives her a slight lead in the Senate race over Republican David Perdue’s 45 percent, but the survey’s 4 percent margin of error means they’re statistically in a dead heat less than two weeks before Election Day. Libertarian Amanda Swafford’s 4 percent could trigger a January runoff by preventing Nunn from getting a majority. Another 4 percent haven’t made up their minds yet.

In the contest for governor, Republican Nathan Deal and Democrat Jason Carter each command 44 percent while Libertarian Andrew Hunt is taking 5 percent. Eight percent of those surveyed were still mulling over the choices.

The poll of 704 general-election voters was conducted by automated questionnaires via cellphone and landline Tuesday and Wednesday by InsiderAdvantage and Opinion Savvy on behalf of Morris News Service and Fox5. Pollsters weighted the responses to reflect an anticipated turnout where 37 percent of the voters are black and 55 percent are female.

via Nunn leads Senate race; Deal and Carter tied | The Augusta Chronicle.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for October 22, 2014

James Oglethorpe of Georgia signed a treaty with Florida’s Spanish government on October 22, 1736 that is commemorated each year with a very large cocktail party.

On October 22, 1832, the Cherokee Land Lottery began in which the Georgia state government gave away millions of acres of land in 160-acre and 40-acre parcels.

Governor John B. Gordon signed legislation changing the number of Georgia Supreme Court Justices from three to five on October 22, 1887

President Grover Cleveland arrived in Atlanta aboard the Southern Railway to tour the Cotton States and International Expo on October 22, 1895.

Grover Cleveland Atlanta

Four-hundred thirty-three Atlantans were poisoned by bad moonshine on October 21, 1951.

President John F. Kennedy announced the American naval blockade of Cuba after spy planes photographed Soviet missiles on the island 90 miles off the coast of the United States.

The third and final debate between Jimmy Carter and President Gerald Ford was held on October 22, 1976 at Williamsburg, Virginia.

The Atlanta Braves won the first World Series baseball game played outside the United States on October 22, 1992, beating the Toronto Blue Jays 7-2 with pitcher John Smoltz starting for the Braves.

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections

Democratic Race-Baiting

Ferguson Mailer

The Georgia Democratic Party is engaged in vicious race-baiting in a divide and conquer strategy to drive African-American voters to the polls. The above photo originated, I believe, from an AJC scan, but has been traveling across the internet for 24 hours. (more…)

Newest Survey USA Poll – a look under the hood.

Here’s the bottom line on my analysis: The major change from the last SUSA and this are that Independents were breaking 3:2 for Deal and Perdue, but this poll shows them 40-37 Deal and 43-37 Perdue.

Here’s the old Survey USA Governor and Senate by ideology

                          Independent

Deal                    45
Carter                 29
Hunt                   16
Undecided          9

Independent
Perdue                49
Nunn                   31
Swafford              8
Undecided         12

Here’s the new Survey USA Governor and Senate by ideology

                       Independent
Deal                    40
Carter                 37
Hunt                   13
Undecided         11

Independent
Perdue               43
Nunn                 37
Swafford            9
Undecided        11

Hispanic and Asian are too high at 7 and 5 respectively. All “other” than black or white is usually around 8-9% total. That undoubtedly includes some “white” and “black” as well.

NB: When looking at subsample, your margin of error rises, sometimes dramatically so.

 

 

Georgia Politics, Campaigns, and Elections for October 13, 2014

Former Confederate President Alexander Stephens was released from federal prison on October 12, 1865 and returned to Georgia.

On October 13, 1870, Governor Rufus Bullock signed legislation creating the Georgia State Board of Education.

On October 13, 1885, Governor Henry McDaniel signed legislation authorizing the creation of a state school of technology as a branch of the University of Georgia; the school would open in Atlanta in October 1888, and in 1948 was renamed the Georgia Institute of Technology.

On October 13, 1918, the ban on public gatherings in Atlanta to prevent spread of the Spanish flu, was extended an additional week.

1929 UGA vs Yale Tix

The first game in Sanford Stadium was played on October 12, 1929, with the University of Georgia Bulldogs beating the Yale Bulldogs. Here is the first ten minutes of the game.

1929_Georgia_vs_Yale

On October 12, 1958, The Temple was bombed after a phone call to WSB warned that Black churches and Jewish temples would be blown up.

Democrat Jimmy Carter received a post-debate bump against President Gerald Ford, with polls showing Carter at 50%-40% over the incumbent, up from 47%-45% before the debate.

Former President Jimmy Carter was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on October 11, 2002, becoming the second native Georgian to win the award, with Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr., having won in 1964.

DeKalb Jurors fight like politicians

The latest political soap opera in DeKalb County is not the behavior of politicians, but of voters. Specifically the dozen or so who were chosen to serve on the jury in the trial of suspended CEO Burrell Ellis. (more…)